I just started reading the book mentioned below. And also noted the quote I extracted from the link below. Tuchman's Law would make for a good discussion. I place it here to hopefully shield it somewhat from the poltard plague and the brain dead. Any infiltration by P and PU slime will be dealt with swiftly and viciously.


Barbara_W._Tuchman

From above link-


In the introduction to her 1978 book A Distant Mirror, Tuchman playfully identified a historical phenomenon which she termed "Tuchman's Law," to wit:


Disaster is rarely as pervasive as it seems from recorded accounts. The fact of being on the record makes it appear continuous and ubiquitous whereas it is more likely to have been sporadic both in time and place. Besides, persistence of the normal is usually greater than the effect of the disturbance, as we know from our own times. After absorbing the news of today, one expects to face a world consisting entirely of strikes, crimes, power failures, broken water mains, stalled trains, school shutdowns, muggers, drug addicts, neo-Nazis, and rapists. The fact is that one can come home in the evening — on a lucky day — without having encountered more than one or two of these phenomena. This has led me to formulate Tuchman's Law, as follows: "The fact of being reported multiplies the apparent extent of any deplorable development by five- to tenfold" (or any figure the reader would care to supply).

Tuchman's Law has been defined as a psychological principle of "perceptual readiness" or "subjective probability".

_________________________________________

Nice quote. Couple of things to add:

- We actually live in remarkably trouble free times. Since the late 80s or so, the only thing that's happened in the West that meaningfully affected lives is the global financial crisis. No wars, no revolutions, no crop failures, no isms, no plagues, no bad weather, no fear of nuclear war. I kind of feel sorry for the media, having to amp up the trivial minutia in our extremely safe and stable times. We're already evolving toward the eloi after just a few decades of this (see:safe spaces).

- In all but wars, and the worst crises, people adapt, and a new normal begins. When bombs rained on London, people felt fear and then got on with their day when they stopped. When stagflation hit the US, people coped. The crises in the paper don't really affect normal lives that much. They're crises of imagination more than reality, as you point out.

Interesting quote.

Chelsea moved to within one win of the Premier League title and confirmed Middlesbrough's relegation with a consummate performance and emphatic victory at Stamford Bridge.

bbc.com/sport/football

I wouldn't recommend seeing The Circle in theaters but would when it comes out on cable. Seems like a direct attack on Facebook (certainly social media in general) that's moderately interesting.

Obviously media tends to filter out the mundane parts of life. Perhaps it's smart to be the first to publish that observation and frame it as a law, however.

Sometimes I reminisce about hanging chads. Those were the days.


PairTheBoard

I had a dream last night that I had sex with Barbara Tuckman and she was wearing a Nazi uniform. Best dream of the year so far for me. Going to be difficult to surpass.

Do you need your end-of-the-world shed anymore?

But your French friends did right. Tuckman talked about five- to tenfold, not thousandfold.

France is easily ignored, as they are mostly irrelevant. And you always need a bunker, both literally and figuratively. Thucydides and Marcus Aurelius will always be correct and relevant.

Happily, serendipitously, found a second place in the world beautiful and charming enough to be happy living indefinitely (the French Riviera was the only other). I require amazing nature close by, mountains, beauty, culture, interesting people, outrageous wealth and beautiful old architecture.

If I find a third place I like I think I'll be happy for the rest of my life bouncing between them. Not sure where though. All US cities are unlivable long term (lovely to visit though), London is wonderful for its energy and people, but ultimately dreary most of they year. Barcelona is amazing but full of crazy, crazy Spaniards, the rockies are glorious but there's not enough going on. Anything north of France are too straight/boring/weird. Everyone raves about Italy but I don't see it - they seem like the Mexicans of Europe to me, and their country too. So I'm out of ideas. Considering checking out Argentina in the winter.

sounds like Switzerland ?


londons amazing but the weather....

Not a fan of Switzerland. Beautiful but could never live there. Think more Eastern Europe. It's a specific city, actually.

And yeah London is one of a kind. How do you northerners cope with the winters?? They're horrible. I've been through two in a row now and I'm not doing a third, hence looking for a winter abode. I even love skiing and snow, but after a few months the cold and bleakness starts settling right into your bones.

I've only been to prague and croatia (if that counts). prague's dreary itself and croatia definitely isn't outrageously wealthy (though some of the islands would accompany the french riveria nicely)

I'm from chicago and winters are terrible. actually a city like chicago is one of the worst 'big name' places for winters. there's absolutely nothing you can do outdoors. no skiing, no hiking, no hockey, etc. - it's quite depressing. I finally got fed up this year and turned the annual late-winter's vacation into an extended residency in southern spain/portugal.

Is it Dubrovnik or Kotor? Or maybe, Riga, Sofia, or Tallinn?

dubrovnik is an overcrowded cruise ship port. and I'm ashamed to admit I've hardly heard of the other four (riga and sofia are capitals I know) . american ignorance

I like how youtube's suggestions knows that I will eventually get off whatever topic I am on and become properly drunk. It isn't done particularly well as far as predictive analytics goes, but not really badly done.

I'm thinking of converting to the purest form of hypocrisy but I'm not sure I can consistently limbo that low of a bar.


PairTheBoard

Those are some really solid guesses.

Never been to Tallinn but kind of have a thing for the Estonian look so it's high on the list.

A student told me today that some people pour alcohol in their eyes in order to get drunk quicker. I thought he was kidding...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vodka_eyeballing

He also told me that some women soak their tampons in alcohol.

The latter could work.

Why does it surprise you lastcard that people do silly or stupid things. You should read The Bible more. There is nothing new under the sun.

Tooth, what kind of president did you vote for?

Just askin'

Pouring Vodka, the worst whiskey in the world, into your eyes is better than having to swallow it and that's a fact, Jack.

I have a copy of the March to Folly on my bed table at the moment.

Trump + Nixon = Trixon


(That low content I didn't post in the Political thread)