Basically, the problem is that more people will play as the jackpot grows, so there's a bigger chance of.a split pot, and that's hard to model without more info. Also, players don't pick totally random numbers --lots of people play their birthday or "lucky" numbers, so your EV will actually depend on which numbers you play.

I like Ganesh and Bilko.

https://youtu.be/7-iRf9AWoyE

You can nitpick on any calculation all you want and we have even talked about that in previous threads ie how to maximize chance to be alone. But when the discussion finally starts to be plus EV where the question really is focused you are talking a very big jackpot with many tickets played and i bet the majority of them is now random picks.

Looking at this picture you do not exactly get a massive bias on winning numbers. Its typical to expect sd order root N so for something around 13 events on avg as the picture next shows you expect sd of 3.5-4. So most of these numbers are up and down 1sd or less indeed not very far from randomly chosen.

There is, like, an enormous body of literature showing that humans are terrible at picking random numbers.

But what's more dubious is the claim that it's not -EV to play lotto if you're good at investing, which is bizarre. Like, if you're a wiz investor, it's even more of a mistake to blow money on lotto and lose the opportunity cost of investing that money.

I prefer the mental state of knowing I'll never win the lottery to the cycle of getting hopes raised then dashed. I guess I'd take a free ticket but I wouldn't really like it.


PairTheBoard

Many people enjoy the thrill. If they get like $0.50 worth of entertainment out of a lotto ticket, it's a reasonable play.

You know you're hopeless when you're buying momentary hope.

You're not buying momentary hope and that's not what the lotteries sell. What they sell is some amount of time daydreaming. 'What would I do w/ the money?'
'How am I going to split the prize up w/ friends and family?' 'Where do I want to travel' and all of that. The ticket buyer can get three days of that pretty cheap for what it delivers. $10 buys a great movie in your head. That's why it's so popular.

Who are you trying to convince Howard?

Hope and daydreams about how things could be better. They go hand-in-hand.

I hear that the more often two things go together, the more likely they are to go together in the future. They refer to this as:

Induction.

I should add: it's ok.
Hopelessness and general aimlessness are ubiquitous on Zeno's ship of fools.

But we are not talking investing 10k to lotto vs in some combination of well researched new companies and some established winners. Its only 2$ or $100 every time it's jackpot big over 500 mil say.

I am willing to claim that this is a much better EV than actually investing it. Unless you invest it and then use it for jackpots in some optimal combo lol!

You see how its impossible to ever see 200 mil in so short period of time playing the investing or company creating game exactly as it deserves properly.

So if you ask yourself what offers the highest chance to have 200 mil in 1 year the answer is what?

Will you ever try to bet 1mil to reach 2 with 55% chance if you have only 200k in your banks and other liquid assets say?


Here is what you can do if you play only in jackpots. Start putting aside every month 500$ for various drip investment ideas and when it goes over 500 mil use that money that month (the 500) for tickets properly selected to not overlap that bad. If your drip starts working over 10% per year start doing 1k etc on jackpots.

Its lost money typically but i bet its more EV than the investing itself.

The actual EV of instant 200 mil win is easily better than stock market of same money invested. But its not wise to take your money and risk it there. You have to find the equivalent kelly betting amount per big jackpot.

But the true value is life EV that makes possible to realize exceptional experiences and power positions to fulfill other more important than money ideas.


We can make a thread actually about it and try to formulate a game like that with instant wins with some probability vs continued investment and figure out the optimal allocation strategy under a given objective.

It is all momentary, bub.

Actually, most of it is reminiscing and anticipation. However, that is just done in the moment.

Generally.

Still - in the case of hope: I have permanent and unshakeable hope that whatever comes at me, I'll deal with it. Maybe I won't, but I'll still have this hope. For this to be momentary is for your self-esteem to be low. Not for me.

The most important thing is that there is no single well defined trajectory from 2 to 200 mil in one week! If there is write the novel and get there in a few years. I know exactly the way the novel goes. Nobody makes it to 200 mil but the 2$ bill does in the story. It finds the way to double its company each time with someone else. It gets there with the help of many different lives all joined together by the same sweet verdict against money culture. If people wont buy your outlandish single human victory Cinderella story sell them an even more improbable one involving more individuals.

How can you turn 2 to 200mil without at some point telling yourself enough already because its bs risk. Most people would step out at 10k money. So ok you dont care for 2, then 4, then 8, then 16 etc all the way to 1024 and then when its finally something cool you say whatever lets see where it goes. But at 100k you would be a moron to not take out 50k or more and continue with the rest. And if the rest became 500k mil you would be a moron to not take out 250k easily. You could build a home in many emerging places with 250k-300k. You can do that in paradise undiscovered locations in Greece right now with the crisis and still many in US.

You will be the only obstacle other than luck from ever getting there! Because you re not reckless and its the only way to get there with better probability than the lottery, by being reckless.


So yes long live the stupid lottery. The most negative EV effort is actually getting to go to the store if you are busy lol. Thats the only obstacle in my case. If i am there i will spend 10-20. Why the heck not! It only happens a few times a year.If i happen to be out tomorrow near a store i will buy some. I wont play my favorite number 17. I prefer to chase it all my life instead in more important ways. It will be there eventually again!

I will choose some Pi digits instead lol! Maybe from the Feynman point and later all sub 69 or 26 that fit the stupid manmade constraints. Say 17 digits later or maybe not...


3.1415926535 8979323846 2643383279 5028841971 6939937510 5820974944 5923078164 0628620899 8628034825 3421170679 8214808651 3282306647 0938446095 5058223172 5359408128 4811174502 8410270193 8521105559 6446229489 5493038196 4428810975 6659334461 2847564823 3786783165 2712019091 4564856692 3460348610 4543266482 1339360726 0249141273 7245870066 0631558817 4881520920 9628292540 9171536436 7892590360 0113305305 4882046652 1384146951 9415116094 3305727036 5759591953 0921861173 8193261179 3105118548 0744623799 6274956735 1885752724 8912279381 8301194912 9833673362 4406566430 8602139494 6395224737 1907021798 6094370277 0539217176 2931767523 8467481846 7669405132 0005681271 4526356082 7785771342 7577896091 7363717872 1468440901 2249534301 4654958537 1050792279 6892589235 4201995611 2129021960 8640344181 5981362977 4771309960 5187072113 4999999837 2978049951 0597317328 1609631859 5024459455 3469083026 4252230825 3344685035 2619311881 7101000313 7838752886 5875332083 8142061717 7669147303 5982534904 2875546873 1159562863 8823537875 9375195778 1857780532 1712268066 1300192787 6611195909 2164201989

That's what I had in mind, abbreviating it as "hopes raised". I understand many people like it but I don't really enjoy the daydreaming a ticket induces. It's like an aggravating itch inevitably terminated with a sore frustration for me. Not an experience I want to pay for.


PairTheBoard

Its day dreaming with some probability though. You have to play to win. I am not sure if i can make it to a store tomorrow, i will certainly not go out my way for it but i will have 0% chance to win if i dont go and if i do its 1 in 300 mil or whatever (26*69C5) per ticket.
Every day dreaming makes you a wiser person. You can learn even from something that wont happen 3 hundred million times over back to back.

The ultimate lesson is in math, it is in recognizing that life however rare only took 3 times the age of the solar system to become reality in this universe. So it is rare but its not too unreasonably rare or the age of the universe would be in the trillions of years or more when measured by the intelligence created from it. So i bet we are not here because we are ultra lucky (although still possible) but typically lucky and the next one is a few billion light years away or a few billion years later.

As Aristotle said "Probable is what usually happens...".

It's like going to the strippers with some glimmer of hope that somehow one of them will sleep with you.

A disappointing waste of time.

Cant win this game man. But its not a waste of time. It all adds up to the higher complexity wisdom. Its always about topping an arbitrary price target and their time is always with a price but never free or won. Unless you are super good looking and they are conflicted and new or old and regretful finally wise. You never win. Even when you win you are a loser. So the only winning move is not to play the game.

Then again they are cute and dreamy slutty when you are 20. The forbidden somewhat insulated from risk adventure. But then a few months later in the parking lot you witness the mother that brought the daughter for her shift and her grandchild is in the car unaware of it all. And then somewhere at that point it all ends for life. They do have their families too. Certain things should have only one price, your personal time. You need to work for it too because its better that way.

This guy tried to win it the right way;

This is gibberish. Investing is more +EV than playing lotto almost by definition.

Still tough to beat the wicked grin ev of persuading someone convinced they have picked winning numbers that you are so impressed by their arguments as to why they are going to win that you are going to play the same numbers.

It's all fun and games until someone loses $300 million.

Or a politics forum. Nice to have you back, chez. Do you see what happens when you allow rampant multiculturalism? You lose your forum.

You modding that cesspool was a waste of a nice guy imo. Hopefully you'll post more in SMP now.

4/5 TurdS post rating

You might be onto something there spank.
Australian strippers are the best in the world, and it's not close. They're actually hot. In the uncivilized northern state, you can even touch them anywhere while they strip, as much as you want.

US strippers are vomit worthy, some of the most disgusting creatures ever assembled in one place.I feel like I'll get an STD if they sneeze. You don't know how good you have it, VeeDDz.

The key to making strippers **** you is

a) have lots of money or pretend like you do, and humblebrag it
b) make them feel smart and important as people

You're welcome.

No you do not understand what i say. First of all i made it clear i am not talking about the average lotto player. Many stories exist about those wasting their winnings actually.

If the access to lottery winnings gives you access also to higher returns and opportunities then the stupid local EV of spending $2 to get back on avg say $1.5 when the jackpot is big results say in access to 10% returns for 30 years say. That means the actual statistical present value of the the $2 risked is not 1.5 but

(if say 30 y tbills int. rates are at 3%)
1.5*1.1^30/1.03^30=10.78

vs the same $2 used in some 7% market return

2*1.07^30/1.03^30=6.27

You can argue this is not correct but its a different argument on returns as function of the assets you have.

I argue that 200 mil opens doors the usual small portfolios will never have access to.

The problem is these results come with very small probability. So of course it is not wise to risk a lot of money in them.

What funds are you buying that have a million dollar minimum purchase price? I mean, Vanguard Admiralty bond funds are 10k for an initial purchase, but most are just one or two grand or less.