Quote:
Originally Posted by cyberfish
Same set-up as in OP but she has to work in a fridge when it comes heads for the rest of the week (we/thu/fri) and otherwise she has to work in the desert for the rest of the week (we/thu/fri). Every time she's awake she must have the credence of getting it cold that week is 0.5.
I just read this entire thread. Reading all those posts by PairTheBoard was like reading posts made by someone else. Maybe the GOAT SMP thread. Can't say the above post by cyberfish was the best in the thread but in some ways it's my favorite. I don't think it got any responses. In his scenario for the After Experiment...
I see Sleeping Beauty awake in the experiment. She has a 20 sided die in her hand. She is noticing every detail of what's happening where she's at. She's just read all the professional philosopher 1/3er papers. She's reading this thread and studying all the great arguments for why she should reduce her 1/2 heads credence to 1/3. And she thinks to herself,
"After listening to all these really smart people, I know I should reduce my credence for heads having been flipped from 1/2 to 1/3. Trouble is, I know damn well that when this silly experiment is over there's still a 50-50 chance I'm going into the Fridge."
PairTheBoard