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A Simple Version Of The Trolley Problem I Haven't Seen A Simple Version Of The Trolley Problem I Haven't Seen

03-28-2017 , 11:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by masque de Z
See it as a simple model probability game too. Lets say an individual has p1 chance for something remarkable by living that benefits the system and the random person has p.

Then for a group of N, ignoring nonlinear interactions among them (that cannot be truly ignored though exactly in a better model of reality) the chance for the great thing to happen is 1-(1-p)^N for the many and clearly ;

(1-(1-p)^N)>p1 for some N like N>Log[1-p1]/Log[1-p]

Eg if someone has chance 0.01 to make a miracle "gift" to mankind and the avg human 0.000001 then N>10050 in order to choose the many to live.

If it is p1=0.001 vs p=0.0001 then N>10.

If p1=0.5 and p=0.1 then N>6

If p1=0.5 and p=0.3 then N>=2 is a better choice to save for example.

Since there can be a number of good things a given "good" individual can deliver and the same true for the group of others (especially their offspring too) one has to include all of them to the calculation. One must also include nonlinear effects from multi-person interactions. So the above number becomes much smaller if we include these. Eg 100 people surviving will have families etc and "live" longer in terms of impact. The offspring consequence is not trivial in the calculation but true qualities in human civilization are hard to quantify too...

The thread is of more value if we make it more mathematical and do not necessarily target people but other things for selection criteria in better understood systems.


An even better model treats mankind and the 2 choices as a combined system (not each group isolated from the world) and runs forward predictions for both outcomes and decides better. A good person may have only 0.1% to make the miracle happen on their own but they can also increase the chance for others in their lives to make it by simply interacting with them over time. This is why i am super confident i choose the better person easily over a small number of randoms. Being a decent human has dramatically positive effect in the system over time. It is what saves it actually pretty often. The world survives on very few good people lol if you think about it that hold the system together at critical points every day. But a big number of randoms has also long term positive consequences because they have much more interactions and opportunities to create wisdom for the system eventually. Do not also underestimate the work all people offer to society in general in a variety of ways even boring ones. So a big number of them can eventually cover a big number of risks better than an individual even if a good one (in a system that values humans even better).

Eg in a Mars early colony losing 1 very good, even the best (unless all lives depend on that one somehow- but that is poor mission planning) is better than losing 5 avg if the colony has only say 20-30 members.
1,743 people were run over while you made this post. But I think you covered it all.
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03-29-2017 , 02:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by lastcardcharlie
Never heard of it, but it does sound better than a chicken sandwich right now.

You lose, Brian.
It is also a fine sandwich. Very important to specify that you want a "round egg" when ordering.
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03-29-2017 , 03:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 13ball
Does one of the people lie about being present at a terrorist attack? Because I definitely let that guy get hit.
The scumbag/coward Trolly made this claim in a place I couldn't respond. How did he come to this conclusion? Because I made a post six months later asking if anyone had ever been in danger - I said I hadn't been.

Being 100 yards from where a truck stopped in a terrorist attack isn't "being in danger". If I was actually trying to play it up, wouldn't I have mentioned this as an example of "being in danger"? If I was actually making it up, wouldn't I have said I was right near the truck's path? That's what people who make things up do.

But like most leftists, you and he are incredibly poor, emotive thinkers. You want something to be true, so it is.

I posted actual screenshots from my phone in the thread where the attack happened. I was obviously there. Trolly is a loser/coward and owes me an apology. As do you.
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03-29-2017 , 11:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by masque de Z
How about the train splits in two like quantum mechanics and both kills and saves both groups. They then live each day with a probability 50% but they wont know that the day before they were dead until they look at the date. Also it can be that they live back to back many days or lose many days in a row in total lack of existence because after all it's binomial distribution, etc.

That is a better resolution to trolley problems that all can live with except for the inability to design your life beyond one day at a time unless you develop probabilistic models of what happens each day that hedge future plans and dates with other people by selecting multiple days and assigning confidence intervals to your planning!

Date resets during sleeping time.
What kind of beam splitter are you using for your train?
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03-30-2017 , 06:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
The scumbag/coward Trolly made this claim in a place I couldn't respond. How did he come to this conclusion? Because I made a post six months later asking if anyone had ever been in danger - I said I hadn't been.

Being 100 yards from where a truck stopped in a terrorist attack isn't "being in danger". If I was actually trying to play it up, wouldn't I have mentioned this as an example of "being in danger"? If I was actually making it up, wouldn't I have said I was right near the truck's path? That's what people who make things up do.

But like most leftists, you and he are incredibly poor, emotive thinkers. You want something to be true, so it is.

I posted actual screenshots from my phone in the thread where the attack happened. I was obviously there. Trolly is a loser/coward and owes me an apology. As do you.
Sure thing buddy.
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03-30-2017 , 06:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 13ball
Sure thing buddy.
How much money do you want to bet that I was there? Let's see if you're less of a coward than Trolly.

This is what you guys do - when you lose the argument, which you have, badly, the left goes for desperate character assassination. You're cowards. You'll slink away from this challenge too, because you have no spine.

Last edited by ToothSayer; 03-30-2017 at 06:50 PM.
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03-30-2017 , 07:53 PM
Don't worry, wil still believes in you.
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03-30-2017 , 08:36 PM
I'll bet five cents. Or your reputation, whichever has the higher value.
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03-30-2017 , 09:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 13ball
I'll bet five cents. Or your reputation, whichever has the higher value.
Confirmed coward/loser. Happy to slag off but not willing to put money behind it.

How about $100? Surely even you can afford that. We escrow, then a mod we both trust can review the evidence I give him and make a determination.

If you're sure I'm lying, it's easy money for you, coward. Don't you want to take money off someone you dislike?

Or if money is not your thing, a ban. You and Trolly have wanted me banned for a long time. So the same terms as above, but you and Trolly get banned if I can prove I was there. And I get banned if a mod determines I can't. Deal?
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03-30-2017 , 10:09 PM
You're already banned from politics, don't think anyone really cares if you continue to tard up SMP.
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03-31-2017 , 02:44 AM
hi everyone
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03-31-2017 , 09:31 AM
Welcome to Housewives of SMP.
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03-31-2017 , 10:30 AM
Take this stuff to PM: Don't mess up DS's Trolley thread with your personal, derailing and juvenile bickering.

Ends now. Any more posts on the subject just get deleted. Then the lever...............

Last edited by Zeno; 03-31-2017 at 10:40 AM. Reason: Wording
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03-31-2017 , 11:58 AM
Just delete it all. 13ball started it with his cheap off topic shot, I put him in his place, it's all done
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03-31-2017 , 11:58 AM
Yeah you need to pay more respect to the theme of this thread
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03-31-2017 , 02:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BrianTheMick2
It is also a fine sandwich. Very important to specify that you want a "round egg" when ordering.
+1 although I get worried about making special requests at McDonalds..
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03-31-2017 , 05:09 PM
Trolley problems going off the rails ITT.
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03-31-2017 , 05:50 PM
Simple version of the troll problem

(Posted from a gorgeous beach at Waikoloa Hawaii ...Control your envy if you can)

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk
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03-31-2017 , 09:04 PM
Trolley troll problem.

Bw...bw...bwahahaha!
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03-31-2017 , 11:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by plaaynde
Yeah you need to pay more respect to the theme of this thread
Which could be put more simply by asking if, aside from obvious situations such as those involving family members, serial killers or the one soldier who can translate Arabic or knows medicine, is it ever ethical to save one person rather than two?
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04-01-2017 , 12:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by David Sklansky
Which could be put more simply by asking if, aside from obvious situations such as those involving family members, serial killers or the one soldier who can translate Arabic or knows medicine, is it ever ethical to save one person rather than two?
Don't think it is, if it needs the same amount of activity. Being passive is a different matter. If that is counted we are "killing" people constantly. But because we aren't doing it actively, it's a different category, not ethically as hard. Letting things have their own course so to say, "don't blame me".
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04-01-2017 , 12:21 AM
Say the trolley is about to hit two adults and you can switch it to hit a young cute child thus saving two lives and losing one. I would think most people could NOT pull switch. Actively killing a child would cause the maximum personal personal remorse. I also would' think that most people would not criticize them for that choice. So an ethical framework based on personal guilt and societal norms might agree that losing two people versus one was acceptable in this case. Of course there are other ethical frameworks that would disagree.

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk
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04-01-2017 , 12:22 AM
Logically there should be an inflection point where x=n(y). But because so many variables are involved and complete understanding of the variables are impossible then the problem can only be solved empirically, not logically. You would need hundreds of thousands* of independent interested parties where weights were attached to those most interested** to make the decision to pull the lever. If there weren't time to do this, then no practical answer can be found.

*The number is made up, you may need less or more. Ask a statistician.
**Most interested meaning most interested in those other than themselves and their loved ones ( which should be obvious when I qualified by saying independent)

Last edited by yukoncpa; 04-01-2017 at 12:42 AM.
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04-01-2017 , 12:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pokerlogist
Say the trolley is about to hit two adults and you can switch it to hit a young cute child thus saving two lives and losing one. I would think most people could NOT pull switch. Actively killing a child would cause the maximum personal personal remorse. I also would' think that most people would not criticize them for that choice. So an ethical framework based on personal guilt and societal norms might agree that losing two people versus one was acceptable in this case. Of course there are other ethical frameworks that would disagree.
And the other way around: with the trolley heading for killing the child? Do you think people in general would switch to kill the two adults? I think most wouldn't, including me. You need to choose the least bad of the alternatives. Passivity is paradoxically often the better alternative, within some borders of course. That's why murder is punished harder than neglect leading to death.

In real life there is always present an uncertainty not present in problems like this. Intention is crucial then, because it "focuses evil" (sorry for that expression)

Last edited by plaaynde; 04-01-2017 at 12:38 AM.
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04-01-2017 , 12:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by yukoncpa
Logically there should be an inflection point where x=n(y). But because so many variables are involved and complete understanding of the variables are impossible then the problem can only be solved empirically, not logically. You would need hundreds of thousands* of interested parties where weights were attached to those most interested** to make the decision to pull the lever. If there weren't time to do this, then no practical answer can be found.

*The number is made up, you may need less or more. Ask a statistician.
**Most interested meaning most interested in those other than themselves and their loved ones.
Yes, you have to make a statistical decision. Head count is the best you can come up with without showing subjective pregorative thinking, which may well be wrong. Passivity for getting non-intentional is the other way. Balance between these two.
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