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A probability problem: incomplete information A probability problem: incomplete information

02-29-2016 , 11:40 PM
Today I was at a bookstore that sold both used and new books. It’s a great bookstore with two floors of books plus an attached coffee shop. They had a special sale – you know the ones were they have a rack of books for $1, sometimes less, where they try and move out all the books that just don’t sell. They are great for browsing and by chance gems can be found amongst the gibberish. Today I found some gems, in fact two books that I have wished to read and add to my library for quite awhile.

I purchase three well-used books, all hardbacks - Total price $1.75. What did I pay for each book listed below? Give your price for each and your estimated probability that you are correct.

The Life of Samuel Johnson, by James Boswell, Doubleday and Co. Inc. 1946

Webster’s Collegiate Dictionary, Fifth Edition, 1946

Seven Pillar’s of Wisdom, by T.E. Lawrence. Garden City Publishing Co. N.Y. 1938.


This is only a test. If this had been a real emergency you would have been shot.
A probability problem: incomplete information Quote
03-01-2016 , 05:57 AM
Nice bargains or shall i say the money paid for it has suddenly become sentient and is itself ashamed about it, so moved by the "theft". Cant find anywhere online such prices and shipping would be 5x or whatever.

Probability question impossible to answer without knowledge of book price distributions unless one could get on the web any advertisement for the bookstore and listings lol. How about taxes in your area? 10%?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seven_Pillars_of_Wisdom



https://books.google.com/books?id=Aw...Wisdom&f=false

http://www.wesjones.com/lawrence1.htm

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samuel_Johnson

Interesting how the first book's main character connects with the second and life wisdom from the third offers the chance for word arrangements from the second to mean something better than usual ...eg when posting/writing and treating others...of different tribes in far away lands lol.

0.53*3+10% tax=1.75 lol. Partitions of numbers in sums of 3 positive integers anyone? Using a simple (x+...x^157)^3 trick the coefficient of x^159 (if 10% tax) in the resulting expansion lol is 12403. (number of ways to add 3 books to 159c and ~10% tax 175. If no book is over 100c by store rule on used ones, then this number is further reduced)

The general expression of partitions in 3 positive integers of a number n is by the way ;

1/2*((n-2)^2+(n-2)) (which verifies the above brute force result lol)

http://math.stackexchange.com/questi...ative-integers


Now all you need is a distribution of each of these solutions correlated with the topics/page numbers/weight/sadness lol gl.

Last edited by masque de Z; 03-01-2016 at 06:17 AM.
A probability problem: incomplete information Quote
03-01-2016 , 09:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zeno
The Life of Samuel Johnson, by James Boswell, Doubleday and Co. Inc. 1946
Is not the Giant's Causeway worth seeing? Reams of such sycophantic nonsense, fuelled by gout-inducing nights of excess in the Olde Cheshire Cheese. Enjoy. 50c.

Quote:
Webster’s Collegiate Dictionary, Fifth Edition, 1946
A staple of post-war American prose. J. D. Salinger probably had a copy up in the cabin, suitably annotated and ash-stained, and with a personal inscription from Whit Burnett. Could be a market for this kind of thing. $1.

Quote:
Seven Pillar’s of Wisdom, by T.E. Lawrence. Garden City Publishing Co. N.Y. 1938.
Tricky. All I know about the author is that he rode a Brough Superior for insane distances at high speed around the limey countryside. This resulted in the utilitarian legacy of compulsory crash helmets, however; doubtless in violation of some archaic, redneck Amendment on the subject of "freedom", so let's go low. 25c.

Each of those has a probability of approximately 0.25 of being correct.

Quote:
This is only a test.
Right on. Separate the cynics from the sentimentalists. What SMP needs just now. You're getting your mojo back.
A probability problem: incomplete information Quote
03-01-2016 , 09:26 AM
webster's .25 supply and demand

wisdom .50 sounds like a college town. someone will pay that

johnson $1

95% ci
A probability problem: incomplete information Quote
03-01-2016 , 12:27 PM
Nothing beats a rare bookstore or library sale event if you find something interesting in terms of bargain value, immediate testing and lack of shipping charges.

Until then maybe one can try things like;
(linked only examples you can search wider of course)

http://search.half.ebay.com/dover_Sc...QQmZbooksQQcZ4

"http://www.thriftbooks.com/browse/#b.f.t[/url][]=12529%2C13902%2C13526"

Would be great if people shared any similar or better finds. These days you can get a lot in pdf in a variety of legal or not exactly ways lol. But something about a real book always makes a difference in the experience.


Also dont forget for old books in pdf;

https://archive.org/


And 2 examples from above link (quotes because it dosnt link properly otherwise)

"https://archive.org/details/additional_collections?tab=collection&and[]=mediatype%3A%22texts%22&and[]=physics"

"https://archive.org/details/additional_collections&tab=collection?and[]=mathematics&and[]=mediatype%3A%22texts%22 "


(copy and paste links to work properly removing only external quotes)

Last edited by masque de Z; 03-01-2016 at 12:39 PM.
A probability problem: incomplete information Quote
03-01-2016 , 12:29 PM
The last time I checked out a bargain bin, the highlight was http://www.amazon.com/Therapeutic-Us.../dp/B000EHHOO4
A probability problem: incomplete information Quote
03-01-2016 , 12:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TomCowley
The last time I checked out a bargain bin, the highlight was http://www.amazon.com/Therapeutic-Us.../dp/B000EHHOO4
I see you have also had your share of sports injuries. Adhesive tape, when applied properly, is a godsend.
A probability problem: incomplete information Quote
03-01-2016 , 02:49 PM
No sales tax in my jurisdiction. The smart ones already figured that out by the squeaky clean total price divisible by N.
A probability problem: incomplete information Quote
03-01-2016 , 03:08 PM
Hate I'm not entertained by Donald Duck any more. Makes a point of life being limited. Am I missing some incomplete information?
A probability problem: incomplete information Quote
03-01-2016 , 03:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TomCowley
The last time I checked out a bargain bin, the highlight was http://www.amazon.com/Therapeutic-Us.../dp/B000EHHOO4
I've used this book many times to extracted myself from sticky situations.
A probability problem: incomplete information Quote
03-01-2016 , 03:28 PM
[QUOTE=plaaynde;49488089]Hate I'm not entertained by Donald Duck any more. Makes a point of life being limited. Am I missing some incomplete information?[/QUOTE]

Life is lived with incomplete information. That's what makes it worthwhile. That, and good books, and Beer, and a few friends. And good raw oysters.

P.S. The winner of the probability problem will receive a custom under title of their choice.
A probability problem: incomplete information Quote
03-01-2016 , 06:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zeno
P.S. The winner of the probability problem will receive a custom under title of their choice.
In that case, let's gamble!

1. - $80c
2. - $65c
3. - $30c
A probability problem: incomplete information Quote
03-02-2016 , 03:15 AM
All of them were 75c each or 2 for a $1

100% confident. If there's any dispute then reality is wrong.
A probability problem: incomplete information Quote
03-02-2016 , 03:48 AM
1. $0.75
2. You got for free because you bought the other 2.
3. $1

Im roughly 13.76% confident.
A probability problem: incomplete information Quote
03-02-2016 , 12:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zeno
Today I was at a bookstore that sold both used and new books. It’s a great bookstore with two floors of books plus an attached coffee shop. They had a special sale – you know the ones were they have a rack of books for $1, sometimes less, where they try and move out all the books that just don’t sell. They are great for browsing and by chance gems can be found amongst the gibberish. Today I found some gems, in fact two books that I have wished to read and add to my library for quite awhile.

I purchase three well-used books, all hardbacks - Total price $1.75. What did I pay for each book listed below? Give your price for each and your estimated probability that you are correct.

The Life of Samuel Johnson, by James Boswell, Doubleday and Co. Inc. 1946

Webster’s Collegiate Dictionary, Fifth Edition, 1946

Seven Pillar’s of Wisdom, by T.E. Lawrence. Garden City Publishing Co. N.Y. 1938.


This is only a test. If this had been a real emergency you would have been shot.
Tempted by the prospect of an undertitty, I decided to do some research. On Amazon.com, the world-leading seller of used books, I found:

The Life of Samuel Johnson, by James Boswell, Doubleday and Co. Inc. 1946 (Hardcover) - 49 available copies ranging from $75 (collectible) to $.56 (stolen from library)

Webster’s Collegiate Dictionary, Fifth Edition, 1946 - one copy (pretty dirty, folded and worn) $20

Seven Pillar’s of Wisdom, by T.E. Lawrence. Garden City Publishing Co. N.Y. 1938. -27 copies with several different formats and editions offered ranging from $9.99 to $24.

With this information in hand, I will deduce the price of the dictionary was $1, Seven Pillar's was $.50, and Sam Johnson was $.25. I estimate the probability of being correct is 100% +\- $1
A probability problem: incomplete information Quote
03-02-2016 , 12:48 PM
1) $.10
2) $1
3) $.65

.5% confidence I'm correct, 50% I'm closest.
A probability problem: incomplete information Quote
03-02-2016 , 01:03 PM
58.333...cents per book. You had to buy three to solve the change problem.

100%
A probability problem: incomplete information Quote
03-02-2016 , 01:30 PM
100%

That's what you'd better go for Zeno. 97% will then come true. 110% doesn't exist.
A probability problem: incomplete information Quote
03-02-2016 , 11:30 PM
Answer tomorrow sometime - if my heart pump is still working properly.
A probability problem: incomplete information Quote
03-03-2016 , 12:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zeno

$.75 - The Life of Samuel Johnson, by James Boswell, Doubleday and Co. Inc. 1946

Free - Webster’s Collegiate Dictionary, Fifth Edition, 1946

$1.00 - Seven Pillar’s of Wisdom, by T.E. Lawrence. Garden City Publishing Co. N.Y. 1938.
Certainty level - ~2%
A probability problem: incomplete information Quote
03-03-2016 , 12:40 PM
Odysseus by Joice.

Teh Karamazov brothers.

The Whisky Bible.

Adds up to 1-19%
A probability problem: incomplete information Quote
03-03-2016 , 02:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by networth
webster's .25 supply and demand

wisdom .50 sounds like a college town. someone will pay that

johnson $1

95% ci
Winner! Correct in all ways monetary*. Well done, a true singular feat of distinction. Singing and dancing in the streets and Beer for all, and Networth receives the costume under title of his choosing. Subject to the approval of the 2+2 Dictatorship Counsel.


* Not a college town.
A probability problem: incomplete information Quote
03-03-2016 , 05:23 PM
You got it wrong but cheers anyway.
A probability problem: incomplete information Quote
03-03-2016 , 06:34 PM
Total BS, Zeno is just making shyt up now. I will no longer be preparing breakfast omelettes and steak at his bomb shelter.
A probability problem: incomplete information Quote
03-03-2016 , 06:43 PM
College town, LOL. FU, Networth.
A probability problem: incomplete information Quote

      
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