I sometimes find myself acting irrational in a predictable way.

To determine what the right course of action is in some situation I will perform an experiment, mental or mechanical. After the thinking or acting I will come up with what I should or shouldn't do.

Now what happens next is strange. I of course made a prediction what the experiment would result in. Now if that prediction is in disagreement with the result I tend to stick to the prediction anyway. In some cases I have an almost impossible to overcome bias for the prediction over the result of the experiment.


Example:

I have pizza in the oven. I go to check if it's done. On the way I realize that it's unlikely to be done yet, but decide to look anyway to prevent the unfortunate event of it burning. I open the oven and see the pizza perfectly done. And then I decide that it still needs a little more time and give it an extra moment.


a second more structured one:

Thought: gas might be running low
Prediction: there is probably plenty left for a few days
Experiment: check the meter
Result: gas is running very low, should go to the gas station immediately
Irrationality: nah it's probably good for a few more days, check again tomorrow

The decision to not get gas today was already made in some strange way.


I think this 'previous assumption bias' happens to everyone in one form or another. It's a bit like not admitting a mistake to yourself.

Hmm with the pizza one, I probably would have taken it out the oven straight away if I saw it was perfectly done.

I think the gas one is different to the pizza one.
With the gas one, that's just not being arsed... so basically you're asking "why can't I be arsed?"... I dunno. (Or is "I can't be arsed" an excuse for what is actually happening - namely previous assumption bias). Or is it not being proactive? Or is it really a previous assumption bias? Interesante...

The brain makes decisions based on inputs and what you expect is a huge input, it wont always be over-riden by the input of some conflicting information.

Its why you can persuade a blind taster of almost anything if you can manage their expectations appropriately.

'Above all, don't start from a conclusion' bruce lee

I dont think its necessarily what he expects that is causing his decisions, but rather the fact that his expectations were wrong. For instance in his examples the input from the pizza being done seems pretty strong so his aversion to removing it seems pretty stubborn to the point of denial.

In the case of the blind tasters it seems more like one input ( the taste ) vs another input (persuasive technique). I am not really sure "how strong" expectation really is when it comes to decision making involving seeing something clearly with you eyes.

I think we are starting to mix two separate things here and it is important to keep them separate.

1. Actions influenced by predetermined expectations.

chezlaw's taste test was a perfect example of this. What people think they taste will be greatly influenced by what they expect to taste. And thoughts and actions are often influenced more by ones expectation than their information and experience.

2. Actions influenced by desires.

Have you ever walked up to the refrigerator and opened it to look for food when you know there isn't any food in it just because you are hungry and really wish (desire) there was something you wanted to eat inside? That's not a case of predetermined expectation influencing your actions (you didn't expect to find anything), but rather your emotional brain taking over and only caring about what you want.

Do you mean, "don't come to a conclusion"?

Do you mean 'does bruce lee mean?'



Umm what do you mean? I think they mean the same thing its just a little weird relating to the topic

but maybe you mean something else.