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Old 02-03-2017, 05:56 PM   #1
plaaynde
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The politarding thread of SMP, for really really really sorting things out

Discuss!

Trumpland is a given. Brexit can be considered. Other mishaps will not be evaded either!

Last edited by plaaynde; 02-03-2017 at 06:06 PM.
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Old 02-03-2017, 08:26 PM   #2
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Re: The politarding thread of SMP, for really really really sorting things out

Not it!
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Old 02-03-2017, 09:03 PM   #3
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Re: The politarding thread of SMP, for really really really sorting things out

One thing I found fascinating - but was like casting pearls before swine in the politics forum here - is this study of the effect of powerful proselytizing belief, quoted in Freakonomics:

Quote:
Minority Rules: Why 10 Percent is All You Need
Quote:
What does it take for an idea to spread from one to many? For a minority opinion to become the majority belief? According to a new study by scientists at the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, the answer is 10%. Once 10% of a population is committed to an idea, it’s inevitable that it will eventually become the prevailing opinion of the entire group. The key is to remain committed.
Quote:
We show how the prevailing majority opinion in a population can be rapidly reversed by a small fraction p of randomly distributed committed agents who consistently proselytize the opposing opinion and are immune to influence. Specifically, we show that when the committed fraction grows beyond a critical value pc=10%, there is a dramatic decrease in the time Tc taken for the entire population to adopt the committed opinion. In particular, for complete graphs we show that when p<pc, Tc~exp[a(p)N], whereas for p>pc, Tc~lnN. We conclude with simulation results for Erdos-Rényi random graphs and scale-free networks which show qualitatively similar behavior.
If true (and that's a big if), it has serious implications for public policy, and pretty interesting explanatory power when it comes to what countries will look like under major religions (where > 10% and <10% of the population are highly fundamentalist and aggressively proselytizing), and how various social and political movements have gained steam over time.

It also helps explain the rather bizarre pattern in human history of rapidly turning over social and politic beliefs in a generation or less, often in favor of vastly different ones.
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Old 02-03-2017, 09:28 PM   #4
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Re: The politarding thread of SMP, for really really really sorting things out

Quote:
We show how the prevailing majority opinion in a population can be rapidly reversed by a small fraction p of randomly distributed committed agents who consistently proselytize the opposing opinion and are immune to influence. Specifically, we show that when the committed fraction grows beyond a critical value pc=10%, there is a dramatic decrease in the time Tc taken for the entire population to adopt the committed opinion. In particular, for complete graphs we show that when p<pc, Tc~exp[a(p)N], whereas for p>pc, Tc~lnN. We conclude with simulation results for Erdos-Rényi random graphs and scale-free networks which show qualitatively similar behavior.
What's p, what's a(p), and what's N?

ln is an increasing function and if a(p) is positive so is exp[a(p)N]. Yet they're talking about the Time decreasing as the initial committed percentage of the population increases.

I cannot grok their formulas.


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Old 02-03-2017, 09:46 PM   #5
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Re: The politarding thread of SMP, for really really really sorting things out

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Originally Posted by plaaynde View Post
Discuss!

Trumpland is a given. Brexit can be considered.
I thought I was good at calling them.

0/2; guess I am crap.
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Old 02-04-2017, 02:29 AM   #6
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Re: The politarding thread of SMP, for really really really sorting things out

Important Events never discussed elsewhere on any 2+2 Politard forums because of the myopic view of their posters and their acolytes of drone followers, all living in their bubble world and echo chamber of sanctimonious prattle.


Ex-President Yahya Jammeh leaves The Gambia after losing election

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-38706426

Myanmar sends envoy to Bangladesh as Rohingya crisis deepens

myanmar-sends-envoy-to-bangladesh-as-rohingya-crisis-deepens


Venezuela is a Crumbling Cesspool

economic-crisis-venezuela-crumbles

South Sudan: Leaping from crisis to crisis:

bbc.world-africa

And finally: The failing EU: youth unemployment (18-25) in the EU – the statistics:

youth-unemployment-rate-in-eu-countries/

*****************************

Ignore as you see fit. I do.

Last edited by Zeno; 02-04-2017 at 02:51 AM. Reason: Wording
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Old 02-04-2017, 02:59 AM   #7
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Re: The politarding thread of SMP, for really really really sorting things out

Trump made me almost quitting alcohol and turning to observing astronomy.

Bastard!

Stirring up peoples' lives. But I'll be using you.
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Old 02-04-2017, 09:10 AM   #8
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Re: The politarding thread of SMP, for really really really sorting things out

Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
One thing I found fascinating - but was like casting pearls before swine in the politics forum here - is this study of the effect of powerful proselytizing belief, quoted in Freakonomics:






If true (and that's a big if), it has serious implications for public policy, and pretty interesting explanatory power when it comes to what countries will look like under major religions (where > 10% and <10% of the population are highly fundamentalist and aggressively proselytizing), and how various social and political movements have gained steam over time.

It also helps explain the rather bizarre pattern in human history of rapidly turning over social and politic beliefs in a generation or less, often in favor of vastly different ones.

Taleb wrote a piece on something similar:

The Most Intolerant Wins: The Dictatorship of the Small Minority
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Old 02-04-2017, 10:39 AM   #9
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Re: The politarding thread of SMP, for really really really sorting things out

Quote:
Originally Posted by plaaynde View Post
Trump made me almost quitting alcohol and turning to observing astronomy.

Bastard!

Stirring up peoples' lives. But I'll be using you.
Spin! Spin!

Last edited by spanktehbadwookie; 02-04-2017 at 10:40 AM. Reason: the black circle
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Old 02-04-2017, 04:54 PM   #10
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Re: The politarding thread of SMP, for really really really sorting things out

I don't understand politics. Went to Canary Wharf today, a monument to Thatcherism. Still new buildings going up and a ****load of money being invested there. Is that good or bad?
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Old 02-04-2017, 05:12 PM   #11
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Re: The politarding thread of SMP, for really really really sorting things out

This is how I view politics right now:

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Old 02-04-2017, 08:50 PM   #12
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Re: The politarding thread of SMP, for really really really sorting things out

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I don't understand politics.
You may be a Lucky duck. I can barely stop giggling and making jokes all day having some of that.
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Old 02-04-2017, 09:50 PM   #13
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Re: The politarding thread of SMP, for really really really sorting things out

I'm on the side of the little guy. That's axiomatic. Politics is about how best to be on that side, right?
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Old 02-04-2017, 10:40 PM   #14
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Re: The politarding thread of SMP, for really really really sorting things out

pol·i·tics - noun

the activities associated with the governance of a country or other area, especially the debate or conflict among individuals or parties having or hoping to achieve power.
"the president's relationship with Congress is vital to American politics"


synonyms: government, affairs of state, public affairs; diplomacy
"a career in politics"

•the activities of governments concerning the political relations between countries.
plural noun: politics

"in the conduct of global politics, economic status must be backed by military capacity"

•the academic study of government and the state.
"a politics lecturer"

synonyms: political science, civics, statecraft
"she studies politics"

_________________________________


A reasonable start:

John Locke on Government
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Old 02-04-2017, 10:49 PM   #15
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Re: The politarding thread of SMP, for really really really sorting things out

The election of Trump is a grand and great thing. People need a brick in the back and a punch in the face to make life worthwhile and interesting. But that's just the tip of the iceberg. There's so much more.
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Old 02-04-2017, 10:58 PM   #16
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Re: The politarding thread of SMP, for really really really sorting things out

Quote:
Originally Posted by lastcardcharlie View Post
I'm on the side of the little guy. That's axiomatic. Politics is about how best to be on that side, right?
Non-Complementary to identifiable harm and error is my present sort of axiom.
I'm not sure how to be professional grass roots participant? Alls I know is no boss defines me or you really.
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Old 02-07-2017, 04:50 PM   #17
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Re: The politarding thread of SMP, for really really really sorting things out

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The election of Trump is a grand and great thing. People need a brick in the back and a punch in the face to make life worthwhile and interesting. But that's just the tip of the iceberg. There's so much more.
This is the same sentiment my far lefty new gf expresses, claiming Trump's election will unite the left in protest where they would have let Hillary get away with murder. She backs rioting and violence like we're seeing with Antifa lately, claiming that's the only way things get done. Is this what you have in mind, a slow escalation into race riots and civil war?
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Old 02-07-2017, 05:11 PM   #18
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Re: The politarding thread of SMP, for really really really sorting things out

This doesn't look very appealing to me




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Old 02-07-2017, 06:20 PM   #19
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Re: The politarding thread of SMP, for really really really sorting things out

You haven't lived a worthwhile life, IMO, unless you participate in at least one violent revolution. Think of all the great opportunities the throbbing masses of Europe had in the year 1848. I care little what "side" anyone is on, morals are the first thing the get chucked anyway, along with all semblance of reasonableness. The main thing is to stir up massive amounts of human vitriol, hate, fearmongering, backstabbing, racism, sexism, patriotism, communism, fascism, socialism, Leninism, and all the other "isms" * that get people stirred up, frothing at the mouth, and out into the streets to butcher up their fellow beings. A massive political/religions war of epic proportions is needed. Messiahs howling on every street corner and every garage and backlot and rural district with their own arsenals. With the advent of social media there are already a plethora of Mullahs and Messiahs and other Demagogues by the hundreds stirring up the masses. Blood and Butchery is in the air; It's a great time to be alive.

* Cannibalism should have been specifically called out, my mistake.

Last edited by Zeno; 02-08-2017 at 03:59 PM. Reason: Added * Typos
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Old 02-07-2017, 06:29 PM   #20
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Re: The politarding thread of SMP, for really really really sorting things out

To help further the understanding of the American Political System see the link below. Without a firm knowledge of the underlying concepts of the particular political system you live under you will always be lost and/or easily swayed by demagogues, charlatans, mountebanks and others of similar ilk, from across the political spectrum. If you have no firm base of political fundamentals, the gibberish of any poltroon spewing their vomit throughout the land will make you think the promised land is just over the hill if you only follow X, or Y or even Z.

1786-1800/the-federalist-papers

And to bring you up to speed as to current political situations in the USA, this article is excellent, dealing with the filibuster and its rules. It also illustrates my point above; without a firm grasp of history and government fundamentals and the political institutions you live under, you will be easily tossed about by the waves of emotionalism broadcast from the temples of idiocy. The following article is reasonable, well thought out, and has a lesson on the basic fundamentals of government action and inaction, and its consequences. It takes time to think it all through. Most have no time for that. All "solutions", whatever they are, to sticky problems must be simple and quick and all encompassing. Politics and Religion have much in common. But that would be a even more volatile topic.

senate-must-reform-filibuster/

Last edited by Zeno; 02-08-2017 at 04:02 PM. Reason: Added text, wording
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Old 02-08-2017, 04:20 AM   #21
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Re: The politarding thread of SMP, for really really really sorting things out



When you start an era that the whatever official leader of a country promotes official lies and initiates a campaign of misinformation and smearing of the true news as fake and this leader is the US president then yes the above will be 100% accurate and 100% nightmarish!

If he was really very intelligent he would stop the bs and be hard on republicans on many crazy issues they like, do many good common sense things democrats do not dare try, soften towards science and rational reasoning his decisions and be very strict but fair on immigration and security without bs xenophobia while at the same time offering incentives for proper assimilation that maintains the national character and enriches it even with the best mix of the cultures of all the immigrants.

Ideally an immigrant respects the character of the country that accepts them and offers from their culture the best well selected values and customs that can enrich the new country not build a cultural castle and behave like an invader or an isolated stranger. It is because of this then that racists and prejudiced people use partial truths to create real ugliness and simplistic reasoning.


For example about immigration all non criminals that have a life in this country need to get their life in order and join the country as citizens if they want, not live in the shadows. Security must be strengthened so that the system has a good idea what all the foreigners are doing in the country by keeping in touch with all of them in some non intrusive friendly manner that gets less friendly if there is some rejection of the easy legal process. High caliber talent from anywhere in the world must have a much easier path to citizenship than current methods.

Science and technology and great social value large scale projects must be the way new jobs are created and not at the expense of the environment. Space exploration and colonization programs must be strengthened and real ambitious objectives must be undertaken.

Modern energy production leadership must be established with high technology and innovation and intense focus on fusion research and better safer new generation fission reactors. Solar must reach unprecedented expansion in all new installations and 50% of all current ones that have room for it. Desalination large scale projects that enhance agriculture must be considered as long term strategy built in parallel with renewable energies. And so much more.


America must be the example of modern ethical inspirational progress that other countries follow not the lost dream of the 60s that arrogantly gives the world the finger while gradually abandoning its own original promise in a cultural death spiral shared by so many empires of the past. We do not deserve this bs that is currently happening. The endless division of people along partizan lines must end. The most patriotic thing one can do is listen to the other side and offer a hand of true friendship and cooperation and learn to respect disagreement that matters not have it as permanent sport in everything, as part of an endless war that victimizes both sides by ignoring the truly important that joins all. A leader that has intellect would find a way for this to happen not further divide the country and risk a true revolution. Because revolution and collapse of the presidency is exactly what will happen. I trust ultimately the American people have what it takes to reclaim their country even with a revolt if needed. But why does it have to happen in some ugly painful manner?

Last edited by masque de Z; 02-08-2017 at 04:36 AM.
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Old 02-08-2017, 06:13 AM   #22
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Re: The politarding thread of SMP, for really really really sorting things out

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Originally Posted by masque de Z View Post
I trust ultimately the American people have what it takes to reclaim their country even with a revolt if needed. But why does it have to happen in some ugly painful manner?
It has to happen in that manner because current norms and polite beliefs are ugly and reality-denying, yet viciously defended.

The same effort and ugliness was required to get idealistic idiotic pacifists off their butts and fighting Hitler rather than appeasing him.
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Old 02-08-2017, 05:44 PM   #23
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Re: The politarding thread of SMP, for really really really sorting things out

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Originally Posted by Zeno View Post
You haven't lived a worthwhile life, IMO, unless you participate in at least one violent revolution. Think of all the great opportunities the throbbing masses of Europe had in the year 1848. I care little what "side" anyone is on, morals are the first thing the get chucked anyway, along with all semblance of reasonableness. The main thing is to stir up massive amounts of human vitriol, hate, fearmongering, backstabbing, racism, sexism, patriotism, communism, fascism, socialism, Leninism, and all the other "isms" * that get people stirred up, frothing at the mouth, and out into the streets to butcher up their fellow beings. A massive political/religions war of epic proportions is needed. Messiahs howling on every street corner and every garage and backlot and rural district with their own arsenals. With the advent of social media there are already a plethora of Mullahs and Messiahs and other Demagogues by the hundreds stirring up the masses. Blood and Butchery is in the air; It's a great time to be alive.

* Cannibalism should have been specifically called out, my mistake.
Given this, I'm curious as to your view.

Do you think a world with slavery and unassailable class structures would be a more interesting world?
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Old 02-08-2017, 08:15 PM   #24
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Re: The politarding thread of SMP, for really really really sorting things out

Roman and Greek civilizations where pretty damn interesting.
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Old 02-09-2017, 02:10 AM   #25
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Re: The politarding thread of SMP, for really really really sorting things out

I already have a feeling this thread may have saved our main LC thread
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