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The Likely Upcoming Other Ferguson Probability Problem The Likely Upcoming Other Ferguson Probability Problem

08-24-2014 , 12:32 PM
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Originally Posted by masque de Z
What do you think about the eyewitnesses however saying that he didnt charge him when he turned and one of them actually saying it was Wilson that got closer. I hesitate to trust of course same race eyewitnesses on both sides of the argument but it may be possible to spot inconsistencies and if not then they may be telling the truth. Also what if Brown didnt try to get his gun, it was Wilson who grabbed his neck from inside the car (how did that happen by the way, maybe he had lowered his body talking to him in angry exchanges?) and then there was some fight that resulted in a shot and then Brown started running and Wilson getting out to shoot one more time, then injured Brown turned back and asks not to shoot him and raises hands then lowers hands as if in pain or he stumbles or rushes (which is it ?) and then 4 more shots from 2-3 meters away.
I'm sure the facts of the case will become more concrete after the grand jury, and even small changes can have a great effect on the case. Fyi, autopsy results show brown was not shot while fleeing, although all witness accounts seem to agree he was shot at. I wonder how well forensics can determine shooting distance? 2-3 meters is one thing, 10 is another.

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What if the cop paniced in reality and overestimated the danger, didnt believe enough in himself being able to control things and behave like a mature sensible individual. What if one bully met another and they both proved cowards like bullies tend to do when it gets tough.
Seems like a plausible scenario, and a good defense. I wonder if there is punishment for a cop who is found to have used extremely poor judgement in a shooting?

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I am not sure there is racism here. Probably not. Just some lack of respect for a better alternative at all levels of the 3 min confrontation.
I'll have to disagree with "probably not." There are so many places where race could have been a factor, ei, where a white kid might have avoided this tragedy.

First, the white kid might not be walking in the middle of the street. Why do a lot of black kids do that? Trying to understand that can reveal something about race relations in this country. Second, if the white kid is walking in the middle of the street, does the cop get as angry about it? Might the entire confrontation have been avoided if the cop is less irritated from the beginning? Third, I'm missing steps, but after the cop begins shooting at this kid, does he view the kid as a human being or just some animal?

No way to tell what was going through Wilson's head, but I find it surprising how many of my friends completely ignore the possiblity he could have really been a bigot. I mean, I grew up here in MO, and I meet bigots of various degrees everywhere. Racism, while not as common and out in the open as days past, still lives on here no question. I doubt the police force is free of it. And when an unarmed black kid gets shot down in the middle of the street by a white cop who probably had other options, I'm not going to dismiss racism as one of the likely causes.
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08-24-2014 , 04:26 PM
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Originally Posted by chezlaw
Out of interest where do they learn this 'proper application of statistics'. Is it part of the training or just police culture/experience.

I'm skeptical because I don't know how to apply statistics properly to policing different groups (not even sure we would agree what it means). I don't think even you or DS does unless you are considering very limited scenarios.
Pattern recognition using the powerful neural network between their ears and trained through experience.
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08-24-2014 , 04:49 PM
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Originally Posted by FoldnDark
I think this is the post where you responded to my question, but you still haven't answered it. If we define racism for cops as unjustly making decisions based on race, how often would you guess they do that?
Now you have to define "justly".


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Originally Posted by FoldnDark
First, the white kid might not be walking in the middle of the street. Why do a lot of black kids do that? Trying to understand that can reveal something about race relations in this country.
It's part of a larger pattern endemic to their culture. It's stems from a strong undercurrent intent on giving the big finger to established societal structure.


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Second, if the white kid is walking in the middle of the street, does the cop get as angry about it?
Probably not because it's not part of what he perceives to be a problematic pattern.

A lot of problems started in my neighborhood when a bunch of Mexicans moved in. Mostly this has to do with noise. Mexicans appear to be culturally predisposed to making a lot more of it than whites. Whites don't typically have parties in their cars where they drink beer and blast circus music. Whites don't have very large numbers of people and several generations living in a single house, with lots of other friends staying over temporarily. Whites don't typically work on their cars, do construction, and move heavy furniture around constantly. The Mexicans are a very industrious people who are always working to make their lives better. That makes a lot of noise. So if I hear some noise and look out the window to see some Mexicans congregating, I will get upset and do something about it much quicker than if I see some white guys. The white guys aren't part of the pattern of trouble. It doesn't make sense to immediately get upset at them because they aren't likely to ever make that noise again. They may just be passing through. It doesn't matter if I've never seen those particular Mexicans before. They are still part of a wider problem. They are generally associated with other Mexicans that have made noise in the past. If I complain to them, maybe that general population of Mexicans will start to get the idea that this won't be tolerated. When Pablo starts to make noise, maybe Chico will let him know to be careful because the crazy white guy doesn't like it.

If I have a cockroach problem, I will get upset as soon as I see any cockroach. It doesn't matter if I haven't seen that particular roach before. If a big fly comes through, that's just as unsanitary, but I won't get worked up about that because I don't have a fly problem.


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No way to tell what was going through Wilson's head, but I find it surprising how many of my friends completely ignore the possiblity he could have really been a bigot.
Assuming he is likely a bigot is a form of bigotry in itself.

Suppose the black guys walking in the street had been dressed in tuxedos. The cop probably wouldn't have gotten upset the same way. So it isn't about race. It's about people walking in the street who are part of a larger pattern of people walking in the street, and then mouthing off, attacking an officer, and trying to steal his gun.

Last edited by BruceZ; 08-24-2014 at 04:59 PM.
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08-24-2014 , 06:37 PM
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Originally Posted by BruceZ
Pattern recognition using the powerful neural network between their ears and trained through experience.
'correct application of statistics' resulting from that doesn't sound like anything plausible that can be claimed about human being.

Still it support my claim that the police shoudn't be armed so its not all bad.
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08-24-2014 , 06:57 PM
If the police are not armed and there is a robbery the thieves will wait to say hi to the cops when they arrive and then shoot them or take them hostages too lol. You need to remove guns from all people in order for cops to not be armed. And even then its wrong to not have guns because people can create effective weapons from all kinds of materials from scratch if they need and then the police will still have a problem. The police must be the ultimate enforcer of logic and law in a fluid crisis situation. The fact that it fails sometimes is irrelevant. It must remain the will of the state and the people against outlaws. For that you need it to be massively strong without being abusive. That of course requires you to now be also highly responsible. Obviously in our world we dont have that responsibility realized often and the power is abused.

The solution is not to disarm cops. The solution is to use high technology weapons so that a cop is armed by all kinds of bullets depending on occasion and even bullets that only neutralize without killing by administering to the body near term paralyzing agents and only light injuries to do so. All you need then is to eliminate resistance from all bullies and criminals using such ammunition, arrest them and avoid killing them. Whats better?

We are today within the range of creating such weapons but of course dont expect the crazies out there to push for such technology. Humans are killers worldwide. It will take extreme education that emphasizes on good cultural ideals and examples at very early ages. And then as they grow older you need to rationally explain to them the value of not being violent as your standard operation behavior because it produces a better world..

Last edited by masque de Z; 08-24-2014 at 07:02 PM.
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08-24-2014 , 07:33 PM
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Originally Posted by BruceZ
Now you have to define "justly".
I'd be happy to use any definition you choose if it will get you to answer the question. This isn't politics forum, you don't have to worry I'll label you a racist.



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It's part of a larger pattern endemic to their culture. It's stems from a strong undercurrent intent on giving the big finger to established societal structure.
Seems like a pretty normal response to oppression. Respect and disrespect are two way streets.


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Assuming he is likely a bigot is a form of bigotry in itself.

Suppose the black guys walking in the street had been dressed in tuxedos. The cop probably wouldn't have gotten upset the same way. So it isn't about race. It's about people walking in the street who are part of a larger pattern of people walking in the street, and then mouthing off, attacking an officer, and trying to steal his gun.
Yes, assuming guilt is premature, and I don't agree with protesters who've made up their minds the cop was racist. But I can understand it considering the treatment they're used to. What I can't understand is friends of mine who can't believe racism may have played a role here. It's like they have a huge blind spot to all the bigots in this area, and can't imagine any of them could possibly be patroling the streets.
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08-24-2014 , 08:57 PM
Bruce, I think you might find some of the writing of Ta Nehisi Coates interesting and potentially informative. Although it would take some effort to probably find the most relevant blog posts from that link over the last 6 years.
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08-24-2014 , 11:46 PM
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Originally Posted by BruceZ
Assuming he is likely a bigot is a form of bigotry in itself.
And why isn't thinking its likely he is a bigot the same super awesome neural network computation that makes you get mad at noisy Mexicans or allows the heros in our police departments to be much more likely to stop black people for the same behavior, apparently saving tons of black lives in the process?

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Suppose the black guys walking in the street had been dressed in tuxedos. The cop probably wouldn't have gotten upset the same way. So it isn't about race
Lol....and if it was Morgan Freeman walking in the street the cop would have acted differently!!!!! Obv not about race. The test is not whether the cop behaves the same way for every black person in that situation, but whether he behaves differently between black and white.
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08-25-2014 , 12:06 AM
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Originally Posted by FoldnDark

Yes, assuming guilt is premature, and I don't agree with protesters who've made up their minds the cop was racist. But I can understand it considering the treatment they're used to. What I can't understand is friends of mine who can't believe racism may have played a role here. It's like they have a huge blind spot to all the bigots in this area, and can't imagine any of them could possibly be patroling the streets.
Racism may have been a factor in this case as well in others. However, I don’t think the numbers support that it’s some sort of epidemic. Just ballparking, but every year in the U.S. somewhere around 500 people are killed by the police, and somewhere around 50 police officers are killed by suspects; a little less than 50% of those killed by police are black, and a little less than 50% of cop killers are black. So while the killing of blacks by police is disproportionately high compared to the black population, so too is the killing of police officers by blacks. So, I would expect (say) 25% of cop killers to be black if there is widespread racism in play.
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08-25-2014 , 01:11 AM
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Originally Posted by dessin d'enfant
And why isn't thinking its likely he is a bigot the same super awesome neural network computation that makes you get mad at noisy Mexicans or allows the heros in our police departments to be much more likely to stop black people for the same behavior, apparently saving tons of black lives in the process?
Why isn't thinking that string theory is worth pursuing not part of the same great neural network computation that produced the TOE according to Bozo the clown?


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Lol....and if it was Morgan Freeman walking in the street the cop would have acted differently!!!!! Obv not about race. The test is not whether the cop behaves the same way for every black person in that situation, but whether he behaves differently between black and white.
No, you don't understand. Wilson is part of a contingent of cops who are out to kill black people. That was his only criteria for killing Brown. It had nothing to do with the fact that Brown was a scumbag. It had nothing to do with the fact that Brown just robbed a convenience store and assaulted a clerk. It had nothing to do with his appearance and body language. It had nothing to do with the fact that Brown defied authority. It had nothing to do with the fact that Brown physically assaulted Wilson and went for his gun. Wilson just wanted to kill a black person. It was only about race. That is the hypothesis being floated. If some Temptations impersonators had been there, and they obeyed Wilson and got out of the street when told, it would have made no difference. Wilson would have blown them away. That must be true if the hypothesis is true. The fact that he might not have killed a white person with the same behavior as Brown doesn't correctly test that hypothesis. That could happen if Wilson's decision was due to some function of all the factors of which race was only one which interacted with these other factors in some complicated way via the hidden nodes of the network. But we certainly don't want to admit such a possibility. That would tend to put much of the blame on Brown and suggest that decisions by police are far more complicated than our thesis that cops are out to kill black people. We can't have that.
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08-25-2014 , 05:15 AM
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Originally Posted by well named
Bruce, I think you might find some of the writing of Ta Nehisi Coates interesting and potentially informative. Although it would take some effort to probably find the most relevant blog posts from that link over the last 6 years.
"The police departments of America are endowed by the state with dominion over your body."

Uh, no they aren't. If they had dominion over your body, they could just walk up and shoot you dead any time they please for no reason. If they do that, they go to prison for murder. If they are suspected of that, they have to answer to a jury of citizens.

You might find this interesting and informative:

http://humanevents.com/2013/07/19/bl...-white-racism/
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08-25-2014 , 05:25 AM
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Originally Posted by masque de Z
You need to remove guns from all people in order for cops to not be armed.
We generally agree on that.

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And even then its wrong to not have guns because people can create effective weapons from all kinds of materials from scratch if they need and then the police will still have a problem.
We disagree on that but more to the point so do most of the UK police and as Brucez points out they are applying stats corectly and so support my claim. Of course quite a lot believe the exact opposite based on very similar experiences and they too are applying stats correctly according to Brucez.

A very major datapoint is occuring this weekend in london on my doorstep and its not going to change my view on arning the police whatever happens. However I will be even more experienced with an even better trained powerful neural network so my view will carry even more weight.

Its great for racists police of course (not saying the police are racist) but if they were then they arrest more black people and then correctly use their expereince of more black people being arrested to conclude they should more likely arrest black people.
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08-25-2014 , 05:26 AM
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Originally Posted by chezlaw
Still it support my claim that the police shoudn't be armed so its not all bad.
I think we ought to privatize the police. Then if the blacks in the inner city don't like the way the government police operate, they are perfectly free to dismiss those guys from protecting them, and hire their own force armed with ASP batons. Let's see how that works out for them.

Maybe something like this:

"In 2010, following the serious injury of an unarmed officer in a knife attack, the chairman of the Police Memorial Trust, Michael Winner stated that he had put up memorials to 44 officers and that he believed, "It is almost certain that at least 38 of those [Police Officers] would be alive had they been armed".[13]"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Police_...#Great_Britain

"In October 2000, Nottinghamshire Police introduced regular armed patrols to the St Ann's and Meadows estates in Nottingham, in response to fourteen drug-related shootings in the two areas in the previous year.[9] Although the measure was not intended to be permanent, patrols were stepped up in the autumn of 2001 after further shootings,[10] after which the firearms crime declined dramatically.[11]"
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08-25-2014 , 06:00 AM
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Originally Posted by BruceZ
I think we ought to privatize the police. Then if the blacks in the inner city don't like the way the government police operate, they are perfectly free to dismiss those guys from protecting them, and hire their own force armed with ASP batons. Let's see how that works out for them.
I thnk we ought to make ridiculous moustaches compulsory for the police and ban them from wearing any macho-type clothing.
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08-25-2014 , 06:06 AM
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Originally Posted by chezlaw
We generally agree on that.
Yeah, let's take away the guns from both the police and the people so only the criminals can get them. Capital idea.


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We disagree on that but more to the point so do most of the UK police and as Brucez points out they are applying stats corectly and so support my claim. Of course quite a lot believe the exact opposite based on very similar experiences and they too are applying stats correctly according to Brucez.
Aside from the fact that I said nothing of the sort, I find it amusing that you seem to think there's something unusual or noteworthy about different people applying statistics correctly and coming to different conclusions.
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08-25-2014 , 06:10 AM
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Originally Posted by BruceZ
Yeah, let's take away the guns from both the police and the people so only the criminals can get them. Capital idea.
That jackie Mason defense goes down well in the USA apparantly but when he tried that routine over here he just got blank looks.


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Aside from the fact that I said nothing of the sort, I find it amusing that you seem to think there's something unusual or noteworthy about different people applying statistics correctly and coming to different conclusions.
More amusing then them all doing it correctly?

Seriously you said the police apply statistics correctly and the reason they do is because they have powerful neural nets trained by experience. is that seriously to be believed as an argument? I largely assumed you were joking but not sure if you are just a master of irony.
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08-25-2014 , 06:15 AM
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Originally Posted by chezlaw
That jackie Mason defense goes down well in the USA apparantly but when he tried that routine over here he just got blank looks.
Of course. That's because it's a completely different situation when the guns are already out there.

Here's some interesting reading for you.
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08-25-2014 , 06:20 AM
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Originally Posted by BruceZ
Of course. That's because it's a completely different situation when the guns are already out there.
I wouldn't advoctate a sudden switch. I generally hate revolution.
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08-25-2014 , 06:43 AM


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08-25-2014 , 07:31 AM
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Originally Posted by BruceZ
Why isn't thinking that string theory is worth pursuing not part of the same great neural network computation that produced the TOE according to Bozo the clown?
Specifics about string theory....why using "statistics" and theories about the cultural deficiencies of black people to specifically target blacks is good police work but using "statistics" and theories about the cultural deficiencies of white people is bigotry is something you can choose to actually defend or not.

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Wilson just wanted to kill a black person. It was only about race. That is the hypothesis being floated.
By whom?

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If some Temptations impersonators had been there, and they obeyed Wilson and got out of the street when told, it would have made no difference. Wilson would have blown them away. That must be true if the hypothesis is true.
The one you just totally made up?

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The fact that he might not have killed a white person with the same behavior as Brown doesn't correctly test that hypothesis. That could happen if Wilson's decision was due to some function of all the factors of which race was only one which interacted with these other factors in some complicated way via the hidden nodes of the network. But we certainly don't want to admit such a possibility. That would tend to put much of the blame on Brown and suggest that decisions by police are far more complicated than our thesis that cops are out to kill black people. We can't have that.
I can see why you don't want to make this more complicated given the "If Mike Brown was wearing a Tux he wouldn't have been shot. Not about race, case closed" argument.
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08-25-2014 , 10:03 AM
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08-25-2014 , 10:16 AM
Bruce, I have discussed racial issues with several black friends and co-workers, all who typically dress very well and look professional. All of them have told me they get pulled over and harrassed by police for seemingly no reason. I'm willing to believe not every one of those instances was due to the officer being racist, but it stands to reason some of them were, do you disagree?

Edit:http://gawker.com/black-man-arrested...hil-1469590729

Will you agree cops who arrested this man dozens of times times for trespassing at work may have been in the wrong at some point?

Last edited by FoldnDark; 08-25-2014 at 10:32 AM.
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08-25-2014 , 10:44 AM
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Originally Posted by BruceZ
Here's some interesting reading for you.
I hope we agree not very interesting reading. All sorts of stuff like demographics, prison policy etc etc make a massive difference. I dont argue for gun control because it reduces the murder rate anyway so its a bit moot, anymore than I would argue for locking up far more people because it would reduce the murder rate.

I would agree that if gun control increased the murder rate significantly in two otherwise equally decently run similar countries it would be a strong argument against gun control. That's a tough study though.
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08-25-2014 , 11:04 AM
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Originally Posted by duffee
Racism may have been a factor in this case as well in others. However, I don’t think the numbers support that it’s some sort of epidemic. Just ballparking, but every year in the U.S. somewhere around 500 people are killed by the police, and somewhere around 50 police officers are killed by suspects; a little less than 50% of those killed by police are black, and a little less than 50% of cop killers are black. So while the killing of blacks by police is disproportionately high compared to the black population, so too is the killing of police officers by blacks. So, I would expect (say) 25% of cop killers to be black if there is widespread racism in play.
Yeah, I don't think there are really any cops out there who are looking for a reason to kill anyone, no matter the race. I do think there are a significant number of cops who view black people as inferior. It's just how they were brought up. The stereotype is confirmed on their job where they meet many criminals, many who are black.

As Bruce has mentioned, it is useful in police work to build the profile of a criminal, and this means taking into account everything, including race. Unfortunately, and unsurprisingly, many cops' neural networks are not wired as sharply as Bruce's, and they are unable to process the relevant information correctly each time, separating irrational from rational stereotypical info - it's a tough job. This leads to ridiculous things like a guy arrested for trespassing at work, or a black professor arrested for breaking into his own house, and other such misunderstandings. It's only a matter of applying statistics to realize eventually some of these altercations will end in tragedy.
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08-25-2014 , 12:08 PM
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Originally Posted by BruceZ
"The police departments of America are endowed by the state with dominion over your body."

Uh, no they aren't. If they had dominion over your body, they could just walk up and shoot you dead any time they please for no reason. If they do that, they go to prison for murder. If they are suspected of that, they have to answer to a jury of citizens.

You might find this interesting and informative:

http://humanevents.com/2013/07/19/bl...-white-racism/
I realize I just dropped a link on you without taking the time to really make an argument, but that's because I think Coates, across the wide body of his work, makes the appeal a lot better (and a lot more personally) than I ever could.

Suffice to say that "If they had dominion over your body, they could just walk up and shoot you dead any time they please for no reason." is (allowing for some hyperbole) the actual experience of many black people in this country over many years.

I don't honestly expect this to be the kind of topic where a few forum posts are going to change anyone's view, but I left the link anyway because I think Coates' writing and perspective is worth your time. Yes, he is provocative, but for example if you read his "Case for Reparations" piece, he seems to find good reasons to be.
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