Quote:
Originally Posted by smrk2
Accidentally deleted longer reply, it sucked anyways. Bullet points:
-Still plenty of food, water, land and energy for hundreds of years, even without new technologies. The wild card is climate change/ecological disaster, but the reason there's regional scarcity today is mostly because of human political/economic choices, not because of an actual lack of resources.
Doesn't matter (and I think you're optimistic anyway). As soon as you're lighting *any* of it on fire, it's a net negative.
Quote:
You don't have to light your resources on fire in order for them to be useless, they're useless unless they are used. Russia is Scrooge McDucking incredible energy and mineral reserves and its economy is worth less than Italy's. I'm not advocating full-throttle production, obviously if you consume at an unsustainable rate then the party is over, but under-utilization of resources isn't good either, what good is a pit of oil if it's never consumed?
People die with money all the time. Was it useless to them throughout their lives, even though they never spent it (even disregarding interest, etc)? If you're leaning yes, think about the importance of a poker player's roll as it relates to his ability to play certain stakes, even if he never ends up dropping back down or dipping into it.
Quote:
-You have a wide notion of the charity class, one would have to imagine a radically different society if the charity class, the people who service the charity class (police, jailers, teachers), and the corporations who depend on the charity class market, suffer a 50% culling. There would be far less economic activity across the board, corporations will still be efficient in catering to a smaller population but there will be less demand to sustain growth, why would they want a smaller pie?
You're kind of obsessed with economic activity levels, but it's a meaningless measure without looking at the activity itself. If you describe the charity and the activity in more descriptive terms.. the rest of society pulls some money out of their pockets, throws it in a pit, and then 1) some of them simply walk away, treating it as a lost cause, 2) others battle each other tooth and nail for it, spending MORE money and resources fighting each other for it. So the rest of society uses up resources to simply get back what was its own money to begin with. There's economic activity involved, but from the perspective of the aggregate rest of society, it's just lighting resources on fire and calling it GDP.
The "pie" is NOT smaller post-culling, as long as you use any sensible definition of pie. Society has more wealth, not less, that you can work to acquire by providing something of value. As far as sustained growth, how are you measuring it and why do you want it? If you mean growth in activity/GDP, that measure is just stupid as is unconditionally wanting it to increase (see previous paragraph). I'll buy that a society growing in both wealth and utility from consumption is a good thing, but the charity class provides no utility of consumption to the rest of society and drains its wealth in the process. It's just bad. (And innovation can increase wealth, consumption utility, or both by either using the same/fewer resources for better/equal stuff. When it leads to less wealth and more consumption, it can be the economic version of a giant hookers and blow binge. Lots of consumption utility, but you sure had to pay for it and you're worse off in the future for it.).
Quote:
-I'm not disagreeing that much, the main thought is with more people there's more economic activity, activity is correlated with innovation, innovation is where the value is, there would be less aggregate innovation with half the country dead. The Internet is one example; it wasn't intended for the charity class, and you could argue that Moore's Law is relatively independent of consumer demand, but the Internet was a dinky thing only geeks cared about, before the charity classes started logging on.
No way. The internet was already freaking amazing, in, say, 2006 before the iphone, or before there was nearly as much lower-class adoption. I consider the influx of simpletons and tablet tards to be a huge negative as far as my utility goes because they've overrun the place and everywhere they go and everything directed at them sucks in comparison to what it was (not to mention what it could have been). WWW2007 >>>>> WWW2014 and it's beyond not even close for me.
Quote:
Also the bigger the population, the better your odds of getting another Einstein, and another Einstein is easily worth, let's say, the state of Florida.
All or almost all of the supergeniuses have come from, for lack of a better term, good stock. I looked up 20 guys from Heaviside to Tao and the only who was even questionable was Grothendieck. There's really not much empirical support for spamming out randoms to even find AN Einstein in a reasonable amount of time, much less enough to justify the costs. If you want to argue that population replacement via the polar opposite of our inverted birthrate is better than ebola, that's at least conceivable to me. Population growth via inverted birthrate (from today), not so much.