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| Science, Math, and Philosophy Discussions regarding science, math, and/or philosophy. |
08-09-2012, 09:27 AM
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#1
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: drinking in a saloon
Posts: 11,940
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Entropy in decision-making
The fast train does not stop at my home station - Kentish Town - but it does stop at West Hampstead, and Borehamwood, my intended destination today. The slow train stops at my home station, West Hampstead, Borehamwood, and a number of others inbetween. My quickest choice to get to Borehamwood is also my only choice - get on the slow train, and don't get off at West Hampstead. However, on the way back, I should take the first train in that direction, slow or fast, and get off at West Hampstead if I'm on the fast train, in the hope that I overtake a slow train.
Is this an example of entropy in decision-making? If so, are there other pertinent examples?
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08-09-2012, 12:58 PM
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#2
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 8,907
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Re: Entropy in decision-making
Quote:
Originally Posted by wazz
The fast train does not stop at my home station - Kentish Town - but it does stop at West Hampstead, and Borehamwood, my intended destination today. The slow train stops at my home station, West Hampstead, Borehamwood, and a number of others inbetween. My quickest choice to get to Borehamwood is also my only choice - get on the slow train, and don't get off at West Hampstead.
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Why is that your only choice? It seems that you could get off the slow train at West Hampstead and wait for the fast train. Maybe you could even overtake the slow train.
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08-09-2012, 01:01 PM
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#3
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: drinking in a saloon
Posts: 11,940
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I could, but that might end up costing me time, where lacking any further info about timetabling, i may as well stay on the train and hope; conversely, on the way back, there is no possible risk to taking that chance.
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08-09-2012, 01:14 PM
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#4
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 8,907
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Re: Entropy in decision-making
Thanks, now I've got that dumb song stuck in my head. "Ain't got time to take a fast train."
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08-09-2012, 03:56 PM
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#5
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veteran
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Live from StL It's Sat Night Dead!
Posts: 2,894
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Re: Entropy in decision-making
Seems the only risk is in your shuffle to save a minute you could twist an ankle, but I can't figure out where disorder comes into play.
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08-09-2012, 09:17 PM
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#6
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old hand
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 1,874
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Re: Entropy in decision-making
Quote:
Originally Posted by BruceZ
Thanks, now I've got that dumb song stuck in my head. "Ain't got time to take a fast train."
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And now instead of that just being your problem it is mine too. FYP :-)
Click this link and replay it 5 or 6 times BruceZ... that should help...
Last edited by Hoopman20; 08-09-2012 at 09:27 PM.
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08-10-2012, 11:35 AM
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#7
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veteran
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 3,077
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Re: Entropy in decision-making
Quote:
Originally Posted by wazz
I could, but that might end up costing me time, where lacking any further info about timetabling, i may as well stay on the train and hope; conversely, on the way back, there is no possible risk to taking that chance.
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This is not good enough. You need to do a detailed analysis of the timetable and make estimates of its accuracy before making a decisions.
I used to work at Stockely Park, half way between Hays and Harlington and West Drayton station. I lived in Slough, travelling to and from work was always a difficult mathematical programming problem.
There were two buses from Stockely to West Drayton station H50 & U1, and another one from Stockley to Hays station H50. About a third of the trains stopping at Hays did not stop at West Drayton, but West Drayton was about five minutes closer to Slough. I knew the scheduled times of the buses and trains had a good feel for how accurate the timetables were. Obviously the train timetables were more accurate than the bus timetables. Also the H50 route run more to time the U1 due to being less subject to traffic and was shorter.
I remember there was a spot in Stocklely Park were there were two bus stops going each way opposite each other. There used to be time points were I would switch from waiting for the bus going one direction to catching the one going the other way, depending on the mainline train times.
When going to work deciding to get off at West Drayton or Hays was an issue complicated by the fact that the bus from Hays could sometimes get fill up, and you had to wait for the next one. Also there was the option of walking from the station which I sometimes did in the morning if it guaranteed I would not be late for work.
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08-10-2012, 11:54 AM
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#8
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 8,907
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Re: Entropy in decision-making
I just had an idea for an iPhone app.
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08-10-2012, 12:21 PM
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#9
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: London
Posts: 16,972
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Re: Entropy in decision-making
Any news from woking?
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08-10-2012, 12:48 PM
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#10
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 8,907
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Re: Entropy in decision-making
Quote:
Originally Posted by chezlaw
Any news from woking?
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Expecting retaliation by martians?
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08-10-2012, 04:21 PM
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#11
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Pooh-Bah
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 4,251
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Re: Entropy in decision-making
Thameslink is always shocking in terms of late trains (at least, I have found). I don't believe the 80-90% figures they have outside Bmwd station. So even if you printed off a weekly thameslink timetable, you would have to factor in how often trains are late, and how late they are
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08-11-2012, 05:45 PM
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#12
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adept
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Swimming with sharks
Posts: 865
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I live in Epsom, and commute to central London. My problem is normally on the way home, from Waterloo.
South West trains are a bit rubbish, and my train is frequently delayed or cancelled. Waterloo station is truly awful about passing on information about possible delays and cancellations.
If, 5 minutes before the Epson train is due to leave, it hasn't been assigned a platform, should I take the next train to Clapham Junction, and change onto a Southern train to Epsom? The Southern trains are slower than the South Western trains.
I'm not completely sure how this links to entropy, though.
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08-11-2012, 06:59 PM
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#13
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: drinking in a saloon
Posts: 11,940
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Re: Entropy in decision-making
I'm not convinced it is either. I was thinking about time and one-directionality, if that's the right word.
I think discussions of the heuristics involved in these sorts of decisions would be interesting, though.
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08-12-2012, 01:36 AM
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#14
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old hand
Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 1,984
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Re: Entropy in decision-making
Quote:
Originally Posted by wazz
I'm not convinced it is either. I was thinking about time and one-directionality, if that's the right word.
I think discussions of the heuristics involved in these sorts of decisions would be interesting, though.
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You should move. It would simplify things considerably.
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08-13-2012, 02:01 PM
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#15
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Le Misanthrope
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Spitsbergen
Posts: 9,699
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Re: Entropy in decision-making
If you always have a good book to read (for example: Unpopular Essays by Bertrand Russell) while traveling by train then this supposed fast-train/slow-train entropy-driven dilemma is eliminated. But Humans, being the fools they are, will simply replace the above supposed dilemma with some other form of chimera-driven hooey to preclude any form of happiness and tranquility of mind. I suggest you always carry a gun while train bound; a sawed-off shotgun would do, well concealed under a dark trench coat, and use it to blow the heads off individuals that show any form of contended state of mind. Toss the remains from the train as fodder for wild animals and as a warning to other traveling humans to behave properly.
Last edited by Zeno; 08-13-2012 at 03:48 PM.
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