Deadly Force To Prevent Your Possible Death - Science, Math and Philosophy Forum

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Deadly Force To Prevent Your Possible Death

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11-15-2015 , 05:27 PM

David Sklansky

Administrator

Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 17,096

I am about to drone a randomly chosen citizen of Turkey to death. People know about it and beg me not to. I reply to one of them that I will refrain if you flip x coins. If they are all heads I kill you instead. Otherwise you both live.

The coin and the flips are known to be fair and everyone understands probability. What is the median minimum x for Westerners to agree to the flip? What about you?

(This is no longer a totally academic question.)

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11-15-2015 , 05:38 PM

jalfrezi

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Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 12,368

About 25. About 20 for me.

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11-15-2015 , 05:46 PM

lastcardcharlie

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Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 10,435

Largest x such that 2^x < the population of Turkey.

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11-15-2015 , 06:18 PM

masque de Z

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Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 9,961

You could start by the equation of that probability to die being the 1/population number but in reality its probably a personal worth for mankind kind of question. If for example there are 8000 people in Turkey of say 80 mil that are very important humans (ethical, good for overall progress etc) then the chance one of them dies is 80*10^2/80*10^6=10^-4 and then you may think a better choice is that you have n=near 13 ie 1/8192 to compare with that.

If i am close to reframing QM and explaining a lot of great things about the universe as a result, n becomes 10^99 sorry lol.

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11-15-2015 , 07:20 PM

masque de Z

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And of course pay attention to the fact that the avg human say over 30 is easily having some 0.5-1% chance to die each year anyway. And you better not be planning to do anything risky right away or its hypocritical really like say driving when tired or some extreme sports, hiking in mountains, parachuting etc lol. You can easily save 1/10000 chance of death by being a slightly more careful person in your life as it is (and lets not even start with smoking or drinking) vs saving a random person who sometimes with 10^-4 chance may be also some very important individual that impacts the world positively.

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11-15-2015 , 08:59 PM

David Sklansky

Administrator

Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 17,096

Quote:

Originally Posted by jalfrezi

About 25. About 20 for me.

Which is why ISIS might be toast.

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11-16-2015 , 05:45 PM

Kristofero

banned

Join Date: Sep 2015 Posts: 1,317

Quote:

Originally Posted by David Sklansky

(This is no longer a totally academic question.)

When has it ever been? The better question is how many Turkish citizens will you kill before you think of the coin gambit. Given enough time, how many of those murders will you be able to remember?

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Which is why ISIS might be toast.

Lady Marmalade shrugs. Boys and that they thought was toys.

There is no guarantee that on the benevolence/malevolence flip of the coin there is any bias at all. A sentient individual is just as likely to gain sentience in a malevolent universe and then wake to this realization over his life.

But that's squaring things elsewhere. It's good to see a human side of you.

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11-18-2015 , 04:14 PM

plaaynde

Poker Historian

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 20,069

Quote:

Originally Posted by David Sklansky

I am about to drone a randomly chosen citizen of Turkey to death.

I'm not.

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11-19-2015 , 04:30 AM

Alex Wice

aka Double Ice

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 5,951

The real question is what would these guys say if you had asked for the probability instead of the probability in terms of number of coins to flip.

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11-19-2015 , 04:32 AM

#10

Alex Wice

aka Double Ice

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 5,951

Btw 22 coins is the response I would expect. Most people value their lives at about $5M and the life of a random turkish person they don't know at about $1.

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11-19-2015 , 08:09 AM

#11

BrianTheMick2

Long way to go and a short time to get there.

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 19,410

Unless the person from Turkey speaks English, I doubt you could drone them to death.

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11-19-2015 , 09:19 AM

#12

Monsieur

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 562

Quote:

Originally Posted by David Sklansky

I would not accept the bet because there are too many loopholes for you in the bet.

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11-19-2015 , 12:42 PM

#13

PairTheBoard

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Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 10,039

"The coin don't have no say. It's just you."
(No Country For Old Men)

PairTheBoard

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11-19-2015 , 02:31 PM

#14

networth

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 2,208

Well you try to negotiate, but the answer has to be one.

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11-21-2015 , 01:03 PM

#15

Kristofero

banned

Join Date: Sep 2015 Posts: 1,317

Quote:

Originally Posted by networth

Well you try to negotiate, but the answer has to be one.

Your best offer is still a fraction of the value of the contract on your life. Contractor knows this.

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11-21-2015 , 01:06 PM

#16

Kristofero

banned

Join Date: Sep 2015 Posts: 1,317

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alex Wice

Btw 22 coins is the response I would expect. Most people value their lives at about $5M and the life of a random turkish person they don't know at about $1.

As an absolute or floating value?

Important equation: People think their lives are worth more than others'. Whether 2M contracts, an ambiguous mean derive of $5M, or individuals that can afford tens of thousands of those contracts...

/me shrugs. Ain't no dice in this game.

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11-22-2015 , 05:18 PM

#17

Mr Shakopee

journeyman

Join Date: Jan 2015 Posts: 307

Westerners probably wouldn't agree at all, and neither would I. If you go through with it there will certainly be consequences and that is your choice. I'm not gonna risk throwing away my life just because you're insane. What's to stop you from doing the same thing again right after anyway?

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11-27-2015 , 05:19 PM

#18

Kristofero

banned

Join Date: Sep 2015 Posts: 1,317

There's also Denzel looking at his watch in the Equalizer post-mismatch.

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12-04-2015 , 03:27 AM

#19

sethnoorzad

journeyman

Join Date: Aug 2014 Posts: 357

What's the worst offer the killer would accept? Wouldn't you just say 1,000,000 coins if you could?

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12-04-2015 , 01:29 PM

#20

Kristofero

banned

Join Date: Sep 2015 Posts: 1,317

Quote:

Originally Posted by sethnoorzad

What's the worst offer the killer would accept? Wouldn't you just say 1,000,000 coins if you could?

There isn't one. They're free contracts. But for sociological relevancy, prob 7 figures a pop.

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