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| Science, Math, and Philosophy Discussions regarding science, math, and/or philosophy. |
01-25-2012, 12:22 AM
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#1
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stranger
Join Date: Jul 2011
Posts: 11
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Best way to risk 1$ to win 1,000,000$?
Most lotteries are extremely negative EV. I think they are something along the lines of -75 cents per dollar spent on a ticket.
What is the best "practical" way to put up 1$ so that you have the highest chance of ending up with a million dollars.
Here are some basic 'guidelines' to help scope the problem:
1. More than one step is allowed. You could risk the dollar at roulette for example to win 35$ and then proceed from there.
2. While more than one step is acceptable, the idea is to come up with something that would be finished in a reasonable amount of time (within a few weeks).
3. Ideally, each step would be practical for the average person or at least to the point where they could read up on it and understand it.
The idea is to come up with a system that would yield a higher expected value than a lottery ticket while being relatively quick and practical.
Some ideas that come to mind:
Basic casino games to grow the money to 1000$ or so.
Option trading.
Forex.
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01-25-2012, 12:44 AM
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#2
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Lebesgue Airlines
Posts: 15,738
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Re: Best way to risk 1$ to win 1,000,000$?
I think you'll be hard pressed to find anything that gives you a better chance than the lottery since 1 dollar is so little. Online poker is another option....but a normal person is less likely to grind 1---->1 million than they are to win the lotto.
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01-25-2012, 12:50 AM
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#3
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Pooh-Bah
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 4,011
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Re: Best way to risk 1$ to win 1,000,000$?
I don't know how you beat the lottery unless you can hardway a couple of roulette numbers to get to 1k or 30k and then fire on some way-out-of-the-money option, although I have no idea what liquidity backs things that far out or how bad the spreads are.
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01-25-2012, 01:00 AM
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#4
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adept
Join Date: May 2010
Location: GMU
Posts: 842
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Re: Best way to risk 1$ to win 1,000,000$?
slots?
Or roulette it up to $216 and play a WCOOP.
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01-25-2012, 01:15 AM
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#5
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old hand
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: St. Louis
Posts: 1,994
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Re: Best way to risk 1$ to win 1,000,000$?
Have you seen "Indecent Proposal?"
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01-25-2012, 01:31 AM
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#6
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grinder
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: one mans beat is anothers mans brag
Posts: 682
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Re: Best way to risk 1$ to win 1,000,000$?
I'd do it how Kyle Macdonal did- making lots of +ev trades and turning a paperclip into a house.
Quote:
On July 14, 2005, he went to Vancouver and traded the paperclip for a fish-shaped pen.
He then traded the pen the same day for a hand-sculpted doorknob from Seattle, Washington, which he nicknamed "Knob-T".
On July 25, 2005, he traveled to Amherst, Massachusetts, with a friend to trade the Knob-T for a Coleman camp stove (with fuel).
On September 24, 2005, he went to San Clemente, California, and traded the camp stove for a Honda generator.
On November 16, 2005, he made a second (and successful) attempt (after having the generator confiscated by the New York City Fire Department) in Maspeth, Queens, to trade the generator for an "instant party": an empty keg, an IOU for filling the keg with the beer of the holder's choice, and a neon Budweiser sign.
Kyle MacDonald's house
On December 8, 2005, he traded the "instant party" to Quebec comedian and radio personality Michel Barrette for two Ski-doo snowmobiles.
Within a week of that, he traded the snowmobiles for a two-person trip to Yahk, British Columbia, in February 2006.
On or about January 7, 2006, the second person on the trip to Yahk traded Kyle a cube van for the privilege.
On or about February 22, 2006, he traded the cube van for a recording contract with Metal Works in Toronto.
On or about April 11, 2006, he traded the recording contract to Jody Gnant for a year's rent in Phoenix, Arizona.
On or about April 26, 2006, he traded the one year's rent in Phoenix, Arizona, for one afternoon with Alice Cooper.
On or about May 26, 2006, he traded the one afternoon with Alice Cooper for a KISS motorized snow globe.
On or about June 2, 2006, he traded the KISS motorized snow globe to Corbin Bernsen for a role in the film Donna on Demand.[2]
On or about July 5, 2006, he traded the movie role for a two-story farmhouse in Kipling, Saskatchewan.
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_red_paperclip
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01-25-2012, 01:36 AM
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#7
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: NEVA!
Posts: 6,191
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Re: Best way to risk 1$ to win 1,000,000$?
Buy a knife or squirt gun at the dollar store and rob a bank.
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01-25-2012, 02:08 AM
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#8
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grinder
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Toronto
Posts: 411
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Re: Best way to risk 1$ to win 1,000,000$?
Step 1: Change your thinking.
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01-25-2012, 02:14 AM
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#9
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: not enough time
Posts: 8,625
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Re: Best way to risk 1$ to win 1,000,000$?
'Quick and practical' There aren't any... Probably a ridiculous set of accumulating sports bets with as many 'very high chance of winning but good odds non the less' thrown in as possible... It is not really the 1$ that it limiting but the amount of time you have... with time you could turn a $ in a million with 100% certainty if you knew what you were doing but this involves trading rather than gambling.
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01-25-2012, 03:00 AM
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#10
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: NEVA!
Posts: 6,191
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Re: Best way to risk 1$ to win 1,000,000$?
u higher than diamond mt.fish?
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01-25-2012, 08:48 AM
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#11
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centurion
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 127
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Re: Best way to risk 1$ to win 1,000,000$?
The "best" way is subjective.
You could bet zero four times in a row in Roulette. 1.8m to one shot to win 1.6m (or similar).
Basically assuming you are playing edged games you need to find the lowest edge with the least number of bets (i.e. expose the bet the least).
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01-25-2012, 09:54 AM
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#12
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adept
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,002
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Re: Best way to risk 1$ to win 1,000,000$?
Quote:
Originally Posted by aquabug222
More than one step is allowed...something that would be finished in a reasonable amount of time (within a few weeks)... Ideally, each step would be practical for the average person or at least to the point where they could read up on it and understand it.
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I assume you're looking to maximize the chances within say, 3 weeks?
If so, poker seems the obvious answer at first. Guaranteed way to grow $1 to something more reasonable ($100?) in a period of days. Once you have sufficient cash you start taking a number of very long shot lotteries/table games/jackpots with a potion of your money.
The rest of it you put into more conservative strategies to keep growing your pile of cash to keep taking long shots.
If you include theft, fraud, begging and selling your body as possibilities it gets a lot more interesting.
Quote:
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Have you seen "Indecent Proposal?"
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This is an excellent idea if you're young. You're guaranteed to get some decent cash - as well as significant opportunities for theft - if you find ways to hang around ugly wealthy older women, approach aggressively and swallow your shame.
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01-25-2012, 10:14 AM
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#13
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Notches On My Bed
Posts: 10,291
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Re: Best way to risk 1$ to win 1,000,000$?
sportsbetting.... 19 winners in a row at double or nothing puts you over a million.
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01-25-2012, 04:33 PM
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#14
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: NEVA!
Posts: 6,191
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Re: Best way to risk 1$ to win 1,000,000$?
Quote:
Originally Posted by PingClown
This is an excellent idea if you're young. You're guaranteed to get some decent cash - as well as significant opportunities for theft - if you find ways to hang around ugly wealthy older women, approach aggressively and swallow your shame.
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Sign me up! im going to rent this movie tonight xD
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01-25-2012, 05:42 PM
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#15
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veteran
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Stanford , CA USA
Posts: 2,167
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Re: Best way to risk 1$ to win 1,000,000$?
It takes 10 days per doubling and each doubling has 70% chance of success. Wanna try it?
Poker from NL2 with freeroll unlimited reloading and then 4:1 br management till the limits you are beating then bold theory all in 1 buy in until you reach 1k whichever comes first.
Effective is 1% chance for this to happen for a good player. 10 days per level basically at 30 hands per hour 6 hours per day (so go to live also for the later stages).
Cash out and deposit 1k in options account level 3 clearance although only basic buying and selling will be used (level 3 if you want to do it properly though later). Every 15 days get a buy or sell signal and go all in for 60-70% chance to double or bust the rest of time using at the money 1 month or 2 out calls or puts.
Another 1% chance.
Overall about 19 double ups each near 60-70% chance of success taking 10 days each . Done in 200 days with 1 in 10000 chance way better than 1 in 1000000 if a fair coin game existed.
I can give you a >90% probability of success if you allow me 10 years though or 3 years if you use friends and software to help you and do it with extreme commitment. Use Kelly in both poker and market. Say 25% of your portfolio per risk taking step until you win.
Actually what most people do not realize is that a very good player can tolerate 4:1 bankroll ratio to buying and still not have worse than 25-30% risk of ruin in limits they own. Try 10 to 1 and its far less than 10% but will take over 2 times more time.
Ivey can do the entire thing using only poker the safe way in about 1 year.
In fact someone should prop bet a top pro to do exactly that say 1.5 mil if they do it as bonus and lose 500k if they fail. Would be interesting to see if they take and how they do. Its a nice business idea by the way. I think it will prove profitable but not by a lot. I think seriously only the top pros can do it with over 50% chance in only 1 year. Basically i claim that all the celebrities we see are both skill and tremendous luck, you only learn of the very lucky ones in your life among the top skilled ones. If you restart them you will easily realize they are a lot more human than you think. Still the very best however can do it. Ivey is about 0.03bb/h in the top levels. That clearly makes the final stages of his effort very time consuming if done properly ie to ensure over 90% success rate per level. But 1 year will prove ok because they can take their time after reaching NL1000 to do it the right way with improved buy in ratios progressively. Plus they can play a lot of softer games more than 6 hours per day and weekends breaks. They can basically go for 12 hours and only 1 day break per week they can have 2000 hands per week live. That is easily 100bb per week as a 0.05bb/h winner. So maybe 1 month per doubling if done carefully at the top levels. They easily have 0.1bb or 0.15 or 0.2bb/h in lower levels. Still if one is confident they can make over 2.5mil this way in 1 year it beats their regular game. I am not sure all the top pros avg each year over 2.5 mil as it is or even 1mil moreover their glorious fluctuations you see reported. (of course you have to monitor who they play and if they make any dirty game arrangement with other people to lose at top levels to get to their goal and then split profits). You will be able to see if that is the case by how they play because nobody would take such challenge seriously and then walk in some top levels table with even 30% of their bankroll. The risk is enormous when compounded so if you spotted them doing that against the same opponents it would be a sign of collusion.
Last edited by masque de Z; 01-25-2012 at 06:09 PM.
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