Well it's time to convince myself that once again we have a shot at the division. I love these next few months where that's possible.

Unless I'm mistaken, we're doing something like what ESPN posted:

David Eckstein SS NR
Lyle Overbay 1B 22
Alex Rios RF 5
Frank Thomas DH 17
Vernon Wells CF 9
Scott Rolen 3B NR
Aaron Hill 2B 15
Gregg Zaun C NR
Reed Johnson/M. Stairs LF NR

I hope this year if Stairs is hot, he gets used more.

I guess Doc, Burnett, McGowan are the clear 1-2-3. It's good to have some choices to round out the rest. Obviously I'm jacked about the bullpen with Ryan back and Accardo being the real deal.

So Jays fans, is this the year we make it interesting ?

i think they'll have a hard time finishing in 3rd, nevermind in the wild card/division title hunt. love rios, love halliday...but i just dont really get what ricciardi is doing anymore.

Eckstein will miss 40 games, so that lineup won't always apply. I'd also rather see Hill leading off anyway. Eckstein just can't hit, so why give him that many PA?

The problem is that Stairs is a pretty lousy outfielder (based on reputation, I haven't checked and sabrmetric measures) and Frank has DH all to himself, so it's hard to get Stairs in the lineup.

Yeah, the pitching staff is decent all around. Ryan may not be very good though coming off a major injury, and Accardo, Downs, and Janssen all had those "really good in small sample space" relief years that are just begging for a regression.

Interesting? Sure. Probably a 5% chance to make the playoffs or something like that.

Almost certainly no playoffs but whatever, should still be a fun year, though the words "gritty", "heart" and "clutch" will probably become near unbearable due to overuse with both Reed Johnson and David Eckstein on the same team. Starting pitching should be pretty good (Halladay is awesome) but the depth isn't great, imo. The line-up looks decent enough. Not sure what to make of Ryan, but the bullpen should be fine.

This is pretty much all correct imo.

Unlikely Stairs will perform as well as he did last year, with the same applying to Litsch, Marcum and McGowan imo. Someone already said it in the player projection thread. Bullpen should be great though.

Sportsnet really tilted me yesterday when I saw their bit on the Jays spring training. Obviously they're being optimistic and they're an east coast based network but they were being a little silly billing the Jays like they were.

I'll take the Jays to finish 3rd or higher at even odds for anyone looking for action.

My Prediction:

90 win season
Jays barely miss playoffs (as usual)
Alex Rios AL MVP candidate (if he can stay healthy)
Doc Halladay 20 wins
Burnett 200 K's
Gustavo Chacin 15 wins
Rolen 45 HR's/110 RBI
Vernon - another Gold Glove


All Stars:

Doc
Alex Rios
Reed Johnson
Scott Rolen
Vernon Wells

rolen at 45/110? if i had money to bet, i'd take the under

if burnett can have a completely healthy campaign (no DL stints), it's possible the jays can pull 90 wins together.

also think rios will put up similar numbers to last year, and vernon will return to form.

Shark,

I love the Jays as much as the next guy, but Reed Johnson All-Star?!? C'mon.

LOL - I know its a stretch - but I wanna be able to say that I called it first! Hes capable of pulling off good numbers - hitting with all that protection - Reed will see a lot of pitches...and if he can stay healthy - he can put up some very solid numbers. The catch is - he must get off to a quick start to the season to be recognized enough to get any love for the Mid-season classic.

Not sure who's less likely to win 15: Chacin or me.

Whats the fun in making predictable predictions???

lols, not to pile on or anything, but Rolen has never even been particularly close to 40hr in a season. Your line is a touch optimistic, no? Also, I doubt Wells will hit ~0.890 OPS like he did right before he signed that monster contract. Something like 0.335/0.470 seems a bit more reasonable, imo. Not sure about wins but somewhere around 0.500 sounds about right. They should still crush the Orioles but the Rays are catching up.

On the other hand, Rios should still be awesome. And Overbay might rebound from a terrible season.

We can beat the yankees this year, but boston still miles ahead, maybe if al central is injury plagued we can make the playoffs in wildcard.

The Jays got killed w/ injuries last year and JP definitely overcompensated w/ depth this offseason. I like Eck, but was looking forward to McDonald getting the starting gig at SS.

The only big hole I see in the offense is the lack of lefty bats: Overbay, Stairs, Zaun. Add Lind, Coats, and Inglett if you look 40 deep.

The pitching staff is deep enough to weather injuries again, but BJ Ryan needs to come back 100% to have any shot at the playoffs. They need a shut down closer.

This team is built to win now & next year. If they're in the mix come July, I wouldn't be surprised if the front office lets JP spend a little and pick up some help at the deadline.

Everyone probably thinks Im crazy, but Im fairly confident we can do better then yankees...

Im just gonna compare them to Jays

Jays Offense << Yankees Offense
If Jays offense is healthy we can be as good if not better then the Yankees Offense..

Jays Starting Rotation >> Yankees Starting Rotation
Jays have good 4 pitchers, plus 5th is still a decent .500 whoever will get the job, The yankees have wang and pettite, mussina is a ?????????????, kennedy/hughes are young guys who might take a few yrs to reach their potential

Jays Bullpen >>> Yankees Bullpen
Jays have top 5 pens if not best in all of baseball, while the Yankees have a nearly 40 Marino, and a 22 year old Joba, who every Yankee fan thinks is the next Marino based on his 1/4 of a season stats from last year, plus 6 random bumbs the yankees have in their pen..

Jays Defense >>> Yankees Defense
This one is a no brainer.... The Jays are better then the Yankees every position except for C, and our LF are probably equal.

We will have to see come October...

Wow, might have to think about that one.

Anyways,

BJ won't be up to speed till mid season if that, so Accardo'll have to come through again. Pretty sick(er) bullpen if League shapes up like everyone's hoping. The offense will definitely bounce back, wouldn't be surprised if it's better than the '06 one considering Rios and Hill's natural progression. Halladay through McGowan need to go for about 53-55W and 610-630IP to have any real shot.

BOS
DET
NYY
LAA

..in terms of records.

Meh, a lot of folks seem to think the Rays are going to pass us. i think they're dumb, but if they believe it, let em put their money where their mouths are.

A Blue Jays Thread? Seriously?

Why not ? There was one last year, and the year before. Jays are a great franchise. Have all the talent of some of the other teams, but less douchie fans. It's great being a Jays fan.

Who exactly are "Halladay through McGowan"? Are we talking about Halladay, Burnett, and McGowan? Because there's no way they average over 17 wins and 200 IP.

Halladay 20-23
Burnett 18-20
McGowan 15-17

It's a contract year for Burnett, regardless of his historical inability to log innings. And you're right, given this year's bullpen those IP totals are probably too high.

Agree with both of these and expect Stairs to regress offensively as well. If Lind can learn how to hit he is a good defender and could easily be better than Reed and Stairs.


I think this is a little too pessimistic, all three of them have good peripherals and are fairly young.



Don't forget John McDonald


Tercet you are really underestimating how good guys like Phil Hughes and Joba are.

Agree with the first three, but not McGowan, he is 25 with really good peripherals.

These should go in the joke post about Rolen hitting 45 HRs.

Roy hasn't had more than 16 wins in 4 years. Last year there was one player in the majors with 20 wins. The prior year there were 0. Expecting any pitcher to get 20 wins is aggressive.

Burnett's career high for wins is 12. Last year 10 players in the majors won at least 18 games. The year before that it was 3. Expecting 18 wins from any pitcher is aggressive, expecting it from AJ is LOL.

McG has one year of experience with an ERA of 4. He is very likely to throw 150 to 180 innings of 4.00 ERA ball and pick up 13 wins. 15-17? Not so likely.

Sure, but good peripherals and fairly young adds up to 3.50 to 3.75 ERAs, not 2.14 to 2.35 ERAs. If those guys throw 200 IP between them and give up about 1 extra "ERA" between them, we're talking a few wins just for them to regress to the mean. For a .500ish team, a those few wins mean a lot.