yes it is quite good imo. reminds me of a mix b/w gladwell and taleb (with a dash of kahneman). articulates statistical and data-related dilemmas with great care and clarity.

i wish he'd post more on 2p2 now.

Nothing to do with Simmons but Nate was on Conan's web interview show - http://teamcoco.com/video/nate-silve...-jibber-jabber

spoiler alert: He still says "right?" alot.

Your doing it wrong if you still read anything by klosterman

He's not arguing that at all. He's saying that, e.g., 4h and 4 conversion rates are based on historical data. If everyone started going for 4th and 4, the data would change and it might change in a way that could lead to the conclusion that going for it on 4th and 4 in opposing territory is wrong.

I think he is arguing both of those things Gus.

Klostermans big problem is assuming 4th and 4 conversion rates would be vastly different from 3rd and 4 conversion rates.

lol, come on.

i love nate as much as the next guy but i don't think i can get through the rest of this. would love to read a transcript though.

would have been awesome if he had had the foresight to make his screen name nate the grate

Yeah, on second reading he is.

But he's doing so in an odd manner. His footnote seems to praise going for it on 4th. But the part that he's footnoting doesn't. Which doesn't make sense. He's talking about the Spurs resting their star players, which isn't even a remotely comparable. What the Spurs did by resting their players is say, "we're making the playoffs anyway and the playoffs are all that matters. So screw this meaningless regular season game, I want me team rested." You can agree or disagree with that tactic. But I don't see how disagreeing or agreeing with that has anything to do with going for it on 4th (which is done SOLELY to attempt to win the game).

The analogous situation to what the Spurs did is what the Texans did on Monday night. They gave up in the 4th. They are obviously making the playoffs and didn't want to prolong the game or get anyone hurt. So they punted the ball away when they "should" have kept it.

i bought this book and read the half of it i could read in one night. there are chapters you won't want to read if you haven't seen certain shows that you were planning on watching one day. for me that would be madmen season 3 and on, battlestar gallactica and *gulp* buffy

but the stuff on LOST, 24 and Breaking Bad is all incredible. Excellent thought pieces from Sepinwall. He integrates show history with process. And it's very readable.

jesus @ bringing his daughter on to sing

Naturally he went 2 for 2 on his picks today...I do think he goes 4 for 4 just because he does and I like the picks anyway...and then we'll hear about it for a week

he has has Indy and Sea fwiw

lol simmons

Simmons is legit shook by Peyton Manning and the Broncos.

He spent like 30 minutes on his Aaron Schatz podcast talking himself into the Ravens having a chance and now he just made up a bunch of theories in his mailbag to end up picking the Ravens to win 27-24.

Peyton Manning has crushed New England's hopes and dreams many, many times before. So the paranoia is justified.

He just came up with "Packers-Bronocs" in trying to remember low SB spreads. Lol. GB was only a 2TD favorite.

probably the worst article simmons has ever written: http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/...ro-photo-diary

Couldn't get through it.

lol yup woat didn't make it through a third of the article.

Simmons will probably still be bringing up hunny nut Cheerios 6 months from now when it stopped being funny after 12 hours

photo essay in the youtbe era. good times.

and yeah it's more just his jokes all missed. and no one really cares about a decent january nba game.

you guys missed a great line then!
i laffed, cause its true

I actually liked the article a lot, but it's probably in large part because I watched pretty much every minute of that game and was rooting for (read had a bet on) the Celtics. If it was a game I hadn't seen, I could see it being a pretty boring article. Oh, and the Rondo quote was great BTW.

igy

Yeah put me in the group who couldnt finish the photo article, it was a brutal read.

Daring to Ask the PED Question


Some straight forward talk about his view on PED on sport. Very different from what you usually hear talked about on ESPN. Much more like a fan. He links to a Henry Abbot true hoop piece discussing NBA and PEDS. BS says that broadcasters should be able to speculate more openly.

IMO all successful athletes are on some PED and I don't care as long as they are doing it with medical supervision and are aware of the risks.

Just read it, good to see him follow up that photo essay atrocity with one of his best columns ever. Very thought-provoking stuff.