Those are two different situations. The Giants getting a FG blocked at the end would have no effect on 45-yard FG decisions by other coaches.

In the Super Bowl scenario, it's not "settling" for a FG. It's running a play that's 99% to win you the NFL Championship right there (maybe 98% because of the nerves factor).

In the run-run-run, kick a 45-yarder scenario, it's mostly coaches being really scared of turning the ball over.

Assuming the Giants take a knee twice then kick the FG, what are the chances of Tynes making it?

If he makes it, what are the odds the Patriots pull off a miracle hail mary/draw a flag and/or complete a pass to get in range for a long FG and make it?

What are the % chances of the Pats scoring a TD given the scenario that actually happened? (Before the drive started LDO)

These questions aren't intended to be rhetorical. I'm genuinely curious of the answers.

1. 95%. it's probably higher but i'm assuming maximum nervousness on kicker and some kind of ultimate field goal block attempt by the defense.

2. im sure you there's a site where you can get this information but off the top of my head i'd guess <5%

3. same as #2

goto advancednflstats.com

play with the WP calculator

AdvancedNFLStats.com is one opinion, yes. But it is certainly not the end all of WP estimates. NFL stats are very, very crude compared to baseball. Even baseball Winex/WP stuff isn't super advanced yet.

I brought this up in another thread but if you subscribe to the Myers-Briggs philosophy of how different people process information it makes complete sense as to why so many coaches seem good at one or the other, and not both.

If Bradshaw stopped and they went for the FG, Boothe would have been called for holding 2x and it would have become a 45 yard FG.

I listened to the Eli Manning interview on the Scott Van Pelt show from Monday. Ahmad Bradshaw had talked to ESPN earlier as well.

Bradshaw said that on the late touchdown play, nothing about going down was stated in the huddle. As Eli was handing him the ball, he was saying "don't score, don't score". Bradshaw did not process this or understand why Eli would say that until it was too late and his momentum took him into the end zone.

Eli said that he had a feeling the Patriots would just let Bradshaw walk in on that play. He also said that his ideal scenario was Bradshaw going down on the 1/2 inch line, forcing the Patriots to burn their last timeout, and the Giants getting a touchdown on the next play (which would have been 3rd down). It seems like he understood the thought process behind running down the clock and trying to win the game on a field goal, but he didn't want to leave it to the field goal unit.

I understand Eli's thinking. Not saying that it's right, just that I understand it. When you are the leader of the offense (and according to some posters the free world) you have to think it's a given you will score from 1/2 inch out when you are in control of that happening. Whereas if you bring the field goal unit on, all you can do is watch. Which is why from a maximizing wins standpoint, these decisions should probably be made in the cold environment of the offseason with the reasoning explained to the players rather than in the heat of battle. Good advice for all high-stress situations (like combat and medical emergencies).

They also asked Bradshaw what his thoughts were when the last-second Hail Mary was in the air. He said (paraphrasing) "why did I score and give Tom Brady 1 minute"?

For his career, Tynes is 56-57 from 20-29 yards. So it's pretty, pretty, pretty good.

It was second down with 1:04 left. Had they kneeled, it would have been 1:00 or so. Then they kneel on 3rd down, meaning they kick a FG at 0:23. If you assume a touchback kickoff, the Pats have 0:23 to go from their own 20 to the opposing 20 (or so).

The Pats second half drives were 79 yards for a TD, -2 yards followed by a punt, 23 yards with an interception, then 48 yards with a punt.

Including XPs for his career he is 381-390, however 6 of those XPs were missed in the first four years of his career.

I looked up the line on Pinnacle before the drive and the live money line was 80.5% Giants. That seems low, but efficiency etc.

wow that's terrible.

I'm glad this happened in the Super Bowl. It's a near lock that there will be a rule change now. NFL is retarded. They need to wait to see things happen in big games before they're smart enough to realize a rule needs to be changed.

You have a lot better chance of scoring when you have 4 downs and it's all or nothing and you're not worried about punting, or field position or taking care not to take chances. I don't know what the odds are, but they are better than Tynes missing IMO.

Looking into it a bit, doesn't seem far off. According to Brian Burke's model the Giants had about an 88% shot. AFAIK he basically just takes a huge number of games and looks at how often teams won in similar situations. The Patriots had a very good passing offense, even with Gronk injured and their lack of a deep threat they are going to be far more likely to score there than an average team.

Not sure that all adds up to a 66% higher chance of scoring but if you also throw in that Burke's model isn't perfect with sample size issues and whatnot I don't think it's a bad estimate.