Quote:
Originally Posted by _Drogo_
Would not want to play Canes in first round. At some point their shooting percentage and goaltending is going to have variance swing their way and they will be unbeatable.
Not necessarily.
Mrazek: Career SV%: .912. This year: .911. Age: 27
McIllheny: Career SV% .910. This year: .915. Age: 35
It's certainly possible that this year already represents a positive variance swing for them goaltending-wise.
Their shooting% is being pulled down by having two of their highest four volume shooters as defencemen, including their leading shooter. By comparison, TB leading shooter is fourth on the team, and the only one in the top 7. Boston has 1 D in their top 10 shooters. Calgary one in their top 7.
Teams that generate shots from defence have a team shooting % that is predictably low - it's not just bad variance. It's that they take more low danger shots that are easier to generate and that have a lower percentage chance of going in.
I wouldn't count on their PDO rebounding. It's a completely predictable result based on their shot generation.