that was getting a little long, so conclusion/summary in a 2nd post
http://www.tsn.ca/laine-closes-gap-o...kings-1.478128
Quote:
If this draft looks like it has a lot of uncertainty and fluidity, it's because there is. If there's a given, perhaps it's that the Big Three of Matthews, Laine and Puljujarvi are highly likely to go one-two-three on draft day.
TSN's consensus shows the next prospect "layer" to include the three wingers – Tkachuk, Dubois and Nylander – but there are two things worth mentioning here: 1. Personal preference will dictate what order they're taken; and 2. It is by no means out of the question that any one of a cache of five or six defencemen could supplant one (or more?) of the wingers in the four-to-six range. That's really where things will get interesting.
As noted, there's a high degree of personal preference for the available blueliners – Juolevi, Sergachev, Chychrun, Bean, McAvoy and even Fabbro.
And while one or more of the defenceman could jump up into that second layer of prospects behind the Big Three, the reality is the next layer of forwards – starting with Keller at 10, Jost at 11, Brown at 13 and McLeod at 15 – are all viable Top 10 candidates who could also push some of the defencemen further down the list.
It should not be lost on anyone that the four forwards currently ranked between 10 and 15 are all centers, which of course is a premium position. The only other centre ranked higher than Keller, Jost, Brown and McLeod is Matthews, at No. 1.
This is the type of draft, outside of the top four or five or six, where positional preference could come into play earlier than usual because there isn't a lot separating those prospects who would otherwise be considered “best available.” Also, every prospect currently ranked between No. 7 and No. 15 is either a defenceman or a centre.
feel like most drafts have more certainty than this, so dis should be good
tier 1: big-3
tier 2: wingerz
tier 3: centers & d
feels likely that things could start to get wild in that 4-6 range when there's teams that don't want a winger, either trading down, or yoloing on their fav C/D from lower down. and to see what order these guys start going in. could easily make a case for each of Tkachuk, Dubois, or Nylander being the best of that group. or between Chychrun, Juolevi, Sergachev (or even Mcavoy, Bean, Fabbro, etc apparently). Mcleod will probably get squeezed by Keller, Jost & Brown, but i still think he's a good player and will likely be solid value for someone at 12-15.
the only thing i know for certain is that every team will be claiming that they got their guy, couldn't believe he was still there. and this time around it might not be a lie.