NFL Wildcard Round Discussion Thread - Page 14 - Sporting Events and Fantasy Sports

chim17 · 01-02-2012, 08:12 PM

Was just a starting data point because it's what I found.

But if NE is actually like +210 or whatever, the 4/1 odds there should be great value for you guys.

Zeth · 01-02-2012, 08:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by capone0

Baltimore has been very mediocre away from home this year (4-4). I guess they can hope for NE to fall but I don't like Baltimore in NE in January.

NE is 4-1 and Baltimore is 8-1. Baltimore is the way better value. New England didn't beat a really good team all year. They played two and lost to them both (Pittsburgh, Giants). Tom Brady cannot stand being hit. Baltimore is extremely good at hitting quarterbacks. Joe Flacco sucks. But so does the Patriots defense--and Baltimore has a very good o-line.

In the AFC Championship New England is only a very slight favorite imo and Baltimore should be favored on a neutral field.

Also imo there are only two teams in the field that have a prayer of beating Green Bay, but Green Bay may have to beat them both (Giants and Ravens).

bowens · 01-02-2012, 08:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by capone0

Baltimore has been very mediocre away from home this year (4-4). I guess they can hope for NE to fall but I don't like Baltimore in NE in January.

Cue Ravens home talking about 2009's curbstomping of the Pats.

rmthawk64 · 01-02-2012, 08:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bowens

Cue Ravens home talking about 2009's curbstomping of the Pats.

I thought about it but it's pointless. Even if it does have merit in this argument (which it does, albeit not a lot) all I would get is responses like this one before it was even mentioned.

I will say now that Cameron is giving Rice his fair share the Ravens will be tough for anyone to beat this postseason.

capone0 · 01-02-2012, 08:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zeth

NE is 4-1 and Baltimore is 8-1. Baltimore is the way better value. New England didn't beat a really good team all year. They played two and lost to them both (Pittsburgh, Giants). Tom Brady cannot stand being hit. Baltimore is extremely good at hitting quarterbacks. Joe Flacco sucks. But so does the Patriots defense--and Baltimore has a very good o-line.

In the AFC Championship New England is only a very slight favorite imo and Baltimore should be favored on a neutral field.

Also imo there are only two teams in the field that have a prayer of beating Green Bay, but Green Bay may have to beat them both (Giants and Ravens).

What?

NO definitely has a chance.

SF not sure about but weather could play a big role if the game is in the tundra.

I definitely think the Pats have a chance as well.

sublime · 01-02-2012, 08:19 PM

Quote:

Baltimore has a very good chance to get a home championship game though.

BAL has ~30% chance of hosting...i suppose thats reasonable.

i wouldnt be too worried about BAL on the road though, they have one ridiculous loss on the road this season (which was before jax got raped on the D side with injuries fwiw) and one very solid win @ Pitt...the rest are very reasonable losses. NE lost at home to a far inferior team than BAL in the giants.

BAL will go into NE and be about a 7 point dog, 4-4 record on the road or whatever.

Zeth · 01-02-2012, 08:19 PM

N'Awlins has no prayer of beating the Packers in Green Bay. San Francisco is just a joke; you have to be able to score some touchdowns if you want to beat the Packers.

Patriots? With that defense? At least Green Bay has a slight semblance of a pass rush.

tabbaker · 01-02-2012, 08:20 PM

What would a GB NE line be for the Super Bowl?

Packers -4.5? Higher?

Zeth · 01-02-2012, 08:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sublime

BAL will go into NE and be about a 7 point dog, 4-4 record on the road or whatever.

I'm not a sports betting baller but Ravens +7 at Patriots seems like sick moneyline value to me.

capone0 · 01-02-2012, 08:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zeth

N'Awlins has no prayer of beating the Packers in Green Bay. San Francisco is just a joke; you have to be able to score some touchdowns if you want to beat the Packers.

Patriots? With that defense? At least Green Bay has a slight semblance of a pass rush.

Your opinions are a joke. KC reallly rocked the house a couple of weeks ago vs GB.......

chim17 · 01-02-2012, 08:23 PM

I've never really noticed Zeth but I felt like starting yesterday morning every post was really bad.

sublime · 01-02-2012, 08:32 PM

Quote:

NE is 4-1 and Baltimore is 8-1. Baltimore is the way better value. New England didn't beat a really good team all year. They played two and lost to them both (Pittsburgh, Giants).

this is silly cherry picking.

they beat dallas, so if dallas beats the giants last night all of a sudden NE has beat one 'really' good team? also the giants are not a really good team, at least not compared to pitt. they also beat the jets twice, who are imo, > giants.

16 games in and of itself isnt a large data set, trying to isolate even smaller data points from that pool is generally not going to be very fruitful.

sublime · 01-02-2012, 08:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zeth

I'm not a sports betting baller but Ravens +7 at Patriots seems like sick moneyline value to me.

then bet it, cuz thats what its going to be

sublime · 01-02-2012, 08:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tabbaker

What would a GB NE line be for the Super Bowl?

Packers -4.5? Higher?

if you give me NE +4.5 right now i will literally bet as much as you want...escrow please

ok ok ok you drive a hard bargain, ill take NE +3.5

fanmail · 01-02-2012, 08:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sublime

this is silly cherry picking.

they beat dallas, so if dallas beats the giants last night all of a sudden NE has beat one 'really' good team? also the giants are not a really good team, at least not compared to pitt. they also beat the jets twice, who are imo, > giants.
16 games in and of itself isnt a large data set, trying to isolate even smaller data points from that pool is generally not going to be very fruitful.

wat