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NFL Off-Season 2017 NFL Off-Season 2017

03-17-2017 , 12:47 PM
Definitely thought Kap was getting bad advice to opt out
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03-17-2017 , 12:47 PM
Giants appear to have signed JPP to a 4/$68m/$54m...which sounds insane to me & like that couldn't possibly be the real guarantee.

Giants also re-sign Josh Johnson for 2 years & expected to sign Geno? Seems weird.

Morris Claiborne to Jets, 1/$5m.

John Jenkins to Bears.
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03-17-2017 , 12:57 PM
JPP tweeted that he didn't sign anything, maybe just trolling but $54M guarantee does sound insane
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03-17-2017 , 02:07 PM
Yeah, the actual report was "have reached an agreement" & "are prepared to sign".

Rex Ryan signed to multi-year deal with ESPN. Will be on Sunday Countdown.
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03-17-2017 , 02:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JMurder3
Rex Ryan signed to multi-year deal with ESPN. Will be on Sunday Countdown.
Seems like the second-coming of "Me, me, me" Ray Lewis.
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03-17-2017 , 02:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JMurder3
Giants appear to have signed JPP to a 4/$68m/$54m...which sounds insane to me & like that couldn't possibly be the real guarantee.
Turns out the JPP is 4/$62m/$40m with incentives that could take it to $66m.
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03-17-2017 , 02:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Onlydo2days
Why would they trade Jamie Collins for a 3rd?

Same dynamic.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kneel B4 Zod
I think the Jamie Collins trade was a legit addition by subtraction situation. He wasn't doing what was asked / wasn't playing to capabilities / BB thought he was a bad apple / thought he could shake up and improve the defense by replacing him. something like that.

on a pure value basis (let's take a 3rd rounder a year early in return for giving up a starting defensive player in the midst of a great year) it never really made sense. there has to be something else going on.
👆This.

Bill B just wanted Collins gone. They want to keep Butler, but won't pay him top dollar as a RFA
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03-17-2017 , 03:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JMurder3
Turns out the JPP is 4/$62m/$40m with incentives that could take it to $66m.
Chandler Jones confirmed bargain.
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03-17-2017 , 05:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Onlydo2days
Could you get a 1st for Sherman? Seems unlikely if Butler is looking like he is only going to net a 3rd.
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Originally Posted by Jake7777
Where are you seeing that Butler is looking like he's only going to net a 3rd?
I haven't seen it anywhere, but I wouldn't pay more than a 3rd in a CB class this deep and with what Butler is going to have to be paid to make the deal work.
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03-17-2017 , 07:07 PM
I'd probably give up #14. Proven elite corner making slightly under market value who should be elite for least 3 more years.
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03-17-2017 , 08:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JMurder3

Rex Ryan signed to multi-year deal with ESPN. Will be on Sunday Countdown.
Great news! I never watch Sunday Countdown.
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03-17-2017 , 08:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JMurder3
Yeah, the actual report was "have reached an agreement" & "are prepared to sign".

Rex Ryan signed to multi-year deal with ESPN. Will be on Sunday Countdown.
That's a good spot for him. He belongs in entertainment, not coaching.
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03-17-2017 , 09:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by nath
I haven't seen it anywhere, but I wouldn't pay more than a 3rd in a CB class this deep and with what Butler is going to have to be paid to make the deal work.
I think you're overrating the confidence you can have in any one draft pick. if Pats had put a 2nd rounder tender on Butler someone would have snapped him up. legit #1 CB's are hard to find.
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03-17-2017 , 09:46 PM
Maybe so, but the #42 pick last year signed a 4-year deal worth less than $6 million, and Butler is probably going to command $10m+ per annum.
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03-17-2017 , 09:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by nath
Maybe so, but the #42 pick last year signed a 4-year deal worth less than $6 million, and Butler is probably going to command $10m+ per annum.
Yeah...he's a linebacker who had 4 tackles last year.
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03-17-2017 , 09:57 PM
Speaking of bad 2nd round draft picks...Bucs signed Nick Folk to compete with Aguayo.
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03-17-2017 , 10:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by nath
Maybe so, but the #42 pick last year signed a 4-year deal worth less than $6 million, and Butler is probably going to command $10m+ per annum.
and he projects to be a ton more valuable than the #42 pick

yeah, it depends on how much cap space a given team has, but for a team like the Browns spending a 2nd rounder + paying Butler would be a snap call
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03-17-2017 , 10:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JMurder3
Yeah...he's a linebacker who had 4 tackles last year.
Well I'm not pretending every second-round pick makes a major impact as a rookie.
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03-17-2017 , 10:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by nath
Well I'm not pretending every second-round pick makes a major impact as a rookie.
I know, I'm mostly just kidding. I'm the guy who's pretty much always like it's better to get a good comp pick than pay some guy full market value.

Just thought it was funny, & I have a personal attachment to Malcolm Butler & it would annoy me if the Pats traded him for even the 32nd pick rather than pay him $4m this year.

Butler should be signable for less because of the cheap 1st year, which is worth something, though.
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03-17-2017 , 10:45 PM
Butler + a few years are better value than a 2nd rounder.

I probably wouldn't trade a first tho b/c of extra year contract if you hit on the pick.

Really depends on teams though, browns too far away to bother doing it, some teams already blew the $ and all that.

You guys are too much about the $, half the damn league still has more cap space than players to blow it on. It's just Romo/Cutlah/bunch of bad to worse QB's/running backs nobody wants to fork over $ for anymore and a few other guys sprinkled in here or there over time.
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03-17-2017 , 11:00 PM
More than the money necessarily, I just think it's a particularly good draft, especially at cornerback. Also think there's a decent chance you could wait a year for Butler to become unrestricted and then get both anyway. A 2018 2nd I might be willing to live with, but 42 is a great value spot generally I think (IIRC most teams have about 20-25 first rounders and then the next tier on their board runs to about 40, which means you can get close to the same value as a late 1st with that pick if things fall right).

The weird thing is I think Delvin Breaux and P.J. Williams would make a very good starting duo if either one could ever get through the season without being injured.
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03-17-2017 , 11:02 PM


So Bomani was in college in Atlanta when the Broncos beat the Falcons in SB 33(?). If the player in question was on that Broncos team, does that make it better or worse? I'm going "much worse."
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03-18-2017 , 12:34 AM
Gotta be the much worse broncos option, he wouldn't have a chance to keep her versus a player on the local team anyway.
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03-18-2017 , 10:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by nath
More than the money necessarily, I just think it's a particularly good draft, especially at cornerback. Also think there's a decent chance you could wait a year for Butler to become unrestricted and then get both anyway. A 2018 2nd I might be willing to live with, but 42 is a great value spot generally I think (IIRC most teams have about 20-25 first rounders and then the next tier on their board runs to about 40, which means you can get close to the same value as a late 1st with that pick if things fall right).
.
I just disagree with lookng at it this way. I ranted about this wrt fantasy baseball years ago (lol) but the whole idea of tiers creates false precision when none is needed.

pick 29 is just a bit worse than 28, which is just a bit worse than 27, etc - there is no need to think about it tiers, and whatever teams have for "first round grades" is basically useless bc consensus top 5 guys are far different than consensus 20-25 guys.

I think it's far more simple and accurate to just look at picks as a slope:



where there is a steep drop at first that gradually flattens out. looking at it that way, the idea of a "first round grade" becomes silly, bc where is that? you can see that as every pick goes, the projection just gets slightly worse (but the degree of difference between picks decreases as the draft goes on)

and I know we've talked about projection accuracy before, but I think you're more likely to make a mistake once you start to grade drafts deep at a specific position, etc. you're doubling down on what's largely a guess - far safer to acknowledge you're guessing and just look at historical averages. what's the #42 pick normally worth? use that instead of what you think the #42 pick will be worth this year at a specific position - that's how you get yourself into trouble

Last edited by Kneel B4 Zod; 03-18-2017 at 11:03 AM.
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03-18-2017 , 02:54 PM
Good chance Jimmy Graham is getting traded before the draft or during it. I really thought Wilson/Graham was going to fit better. Baldwin is going to have a monster year if this happens. If Graham is going to be used that way he's not worth 6 million a year so he's terribly overpaid right now. He needs to go to a team that's going to feature him more to justify 10 million a year.
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