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Old 03-20-2017, 05:35 PM   #101
BillNye
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re: NFL Draft Discussion 2017

Dak then Bosa is #1 non-QB.

Decker and Joseph for 2 dudes that haven't been mentioned yet.
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Old 03-20-2017, 07:14 PM   #102
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re: NFL Draft Discussion 2017

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Originally Posted by JimHalpert View Post


thanks a lot. Interested to hear why you're not as high on Conklin.
Tennessee's protection schemes gave him a ton of help. Yeah he looked good on PFF grades but not that much was asked of him. I'd rather have Taylor Decker, who stepped into a much more difficult role right away as a rookie and performed capably.
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Old 03-20-2017, 09:58 PM   #103
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re: NFL Draft Discussion 2017

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Just for fun, I looked up the top ten all-time leaders in yards from scrimmage at running back. Here are their draft positions:

Round 1, pick 17
Round 1, pick 4
Round 1, pick 2
Round 1, pick 5
Round 1, pick 3
Round 1, pick 10
Round 3, pick 74
Round 2, pick 40
Round 3, pick 65
Round 1, pick 2

If you want to add the rest of the RBs who surpassed 15,000 career yards from scrimmage:

Round 2, pick 36
Round 1, pick 4
Round 1, pick 2
Round 1, pick 12
Round 1, pick 24
Round 1, pick 10
can't it be both though? like can't it be that occasionally transcendent talent comes along at the RB position and you just HAVE to get that guy but also a replacement level RB will work for a given year for a given team with a non-awful OL and serviceable QB? yes says this observer
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Old 03-20-2017, 10:06 PM   #104
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re: NFL Draft Discussion 2017

Am I the only one that's got Jabrill Peppers ahead of Jamal Adams? Peppers is bigger, faster, and a much better tackler than Adams. If Peppers lost that weight he gained for the combine he would be even faster and he could play Safety easy plus you get a great punt returner. Adams is good but I don't see him as great and the 4.56 40 time is pretty meh........
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Old 03-20-2017, 10:13 PM   #105
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re: NFL Draft Discussion 2017

Both are significantly behind Obi Melifonwu though......but Peppers is so versatile. He can do a lot of things for your team.

Obi>>>>>Peppers>>>>>>Jamal for me......

There is just not a lot of humans on this planet like Obi Melifonwu.......best S prospect I've seen in a long long time......
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Old 03-20-2017, 10:57 PM   #106
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re: NFL Draft Discussion 2017

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Peppers is bigger, faster, and a much better tackler than Adams. If Peppers lost that weight he gained for the combine
Peppers weighed in at the Combine at 213 pounds

Adams weighed in at 214 pounds

How is it you keep getting facts wrong

Also maybe the reason we disagree a lot is that you think being an athlete = being a good football player, full stop
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Old 03-20-2017, 10:59 PM   #107
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re: NFL Draft Discussion 2017

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can't it be both though? like can't it be that occasionally transcendent talent comes along at the RB position and you just HAVE to get that guy but also a replacement level RB will work for a given year for a given team with a non-awful OL and serviceable QB? yes says this observer
Like I said, I think that's true of a lot of positions, it's just that the RB position has a stat that is easy to quantify. Anyone can see "undrafted 1,000 yard rusher" and think "you don't need to draft RBs." Nobody goes "undrafted strong safety got 70 tackles therefore drafting a strong safety is a waste of a pick."
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Old 03-20-2017, 11:02 PM   #108
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re: NFL Draft Discussion 2017

There are some hot takes in here
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Old 03-21-2017, 07:37 AM   #109
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re: NFL Draft Discussion 2017

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Originally Posted by nath View Post
Peppers weighed in at the Combine at 213 pounds

Adams weighed in at 214 pounds

How is it you keep getting facts wrong

Also maybe the reason we disagree a lot is that you think being an athlete = being a good football player, full stop
Meh I had different numbers. Peppers definitely the better athlete. Adam's isn't a bad prospect he's just not a top 10 pick. 4.56 is slow.


Here's a number for you guys.

10 or more tackles in a game in their career.

Melifonwu- 12
Adams- 4
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Old 03-21-2017, 08:23 AM   #110
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re: NFL Draft Discussion 2017

The more I look at all the great safety prospects in this class I'm definitely not taking Adam's top 10 this year. Why take Adam's top 10 when you can get Josh Jones in the 2rd.

Jones had 10 or more tackles 7 times in his career. Almost doubled Adam's up. He reminds me of Polamalu. A little reckless. Gives up big plays being to aggressive but you can see him stand out on tape. Just wants to hit everybody. Then he put up a ridiculous combine.

6'1 220 pounds

40- 4.41
Bench- 20 reps
Vert- 37.5
BJ- 132 inch

I'd be surprised if he makes it out of the 2nd round after that combine. He reminds me of Deone Bucannon in that he was thought of as a 3rd round prospect before the Combine and then put up a crazy workout. From there scouts went back and started watching Bucannon's tape and he was drafted in the 1st round.

Whoever takes Jones has a starting SS by the end of the year.
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Old 03-21-2017, 12:54 PM   #111
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re: NFL Draft Discussion 2017

waterwolves - how would you like this safety prospect:
6'3" 230 lbs
34" arms
4.43 40
24 reps
41 inch vert
125 inch broad jump

Spoiler:


Obi didn't do the 3 cone for a reason. And he's not a very instinctive player. I don't see judging a safety by 10 tackle games, like that's necessarily a positive. He had 11 tackles against Houston and was terrible that game.
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Old 03-21-2017, 02:00 PM   #112
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re: NFL Draft Discussion 2017

Yeah Combine isn't everything but it's a good tool to use to highlight who you should investigate further on tape.

Obi did well enough at the senior bowl practices playing "CB" which isn't even his natural position to get scouts buzzing...his 10 yard split was a explosive 1.51 sec. He needs to work on his technique but his agility is not going to be a problem. If he can play CB he is way more valuable.

I'll pass on the 4.56 S that tends to miss tackles in the top 10.......
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Old 03-21-2017, 03:14 PM   #113
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re: NFL Draft Discussion 2017

I think you're doing it backwards. Tape is a good tool to figure out who's a football player; the Combine is to figure out if they have the necessary athleticism for their position (and maybe if someone has eye-popping athletic numbers to go give them a watch if you haven't heard of them before).

The athletic tests are really important for guys who played at lesser schools (did they dominate because of crappy competition or are they really an NFL player?), certain positions (the lines mostly, especially edge rushers), and maybe to red-flag a guy if he tests really badly (like Dalvin Cook rating in the bottom 10% of NFL running backs).
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Old 03-21-2017, 04:06 PM   #114
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re: NFL Draft Discussion 2017

Mays did 3cone/shuttle elsewhere and both were poor. I haven't watched obi's tape nor do I plan to do anything for the draft but laugh at all the picks I don't like and be a little sad when watson falls to round 2.
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Old 03-21-2017, 04:11 PM   #115
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My time is limited so doing it this way saves me lots of time. I'm scouting players for FF purposes. I just mess around with the defensive players but it's worked well for me. Not perfect but it helps me narrow it down.

I have a couple players at the skill positions that are flying way under the radar in this draft I'm pretty excited about. I wish I could discuss them in here and see what others in here thought but our rookie draft isn't until the 3rd week of the preseason. Can't let these names out.
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Old 03-21-2017, 04:38 PM   #116
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re: NFL Draft Discussion 2017

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I was intrigued by your Ramsey / Henry idea but you lost me at "there's 20 RB in the league that could have done what Zeke did." There might be three.
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His point has gone from "20 RBs could do what Zeke did" to "20 RBs could run for 1200 yards in the Dallas offense" to "Zeke is only good not great" to "Zeke is overrated because of Dallas' OL" to "I think Zeke might never improve on his rookie year" over the course of the day.
I think the more important question, at least regarding his original point, is how valuable was his production even? I don't know how I'd go about answering it, but I'm gonna try.

Let's assume your baseline assessment that "only 3-4 RB's in the league could do what Zeke did" is true. Then let's put a league avg RB as Dallas #1 RB last year, what do we think he does behind that OL? Let's say we know the production will drop, which would also cause the volume to drop some. Couldn't you make the argument that replacing x% of running plays with passing plays in a situation like Dallas (Zeke 5.54 ypp on runs, Dak 7.9 y/a) is always going to be a good thing? I understand that a running game like the one Dallas had last year is going to positively affect the passing game, but I would argue that with Dallas OL they would stress the run and the run would be something to gameplan against pretty much no matter what.

So I guess my conclusion is that you would much rather have ~random RB+Ramsey than just Zeke on that Dallas team.
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Old 03-21-2017, 04:46 PM   #117
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re: NFL Draft Discussion 2017

Well, one of the first questions you have to ask is, is this average running back capable of playing on every down? The simple fact that they don't have to substitute running-down and passing-down backs means their personnel doesn't tip what they're doing on offense, which also makes the defense's job harder.

Like if they just went into the season with Alfred Morris and Lance Dunbar as their RBs, then maybe Morris runs for an okay amount and Dunbar catches some passes, but how much is the offense depressed by the fact that defenses know if Morris is in the game, they're going to run, and if Dunbar is in the game, they're going to pass?

That's the thing about the NFL: Teams and schemes are complicated systems and we don't always understand and definitely can't quantify all the effects that changing out certain parts will have.

Zeke ran for 5.1 YPC last year. Morris ran for 3.5 and Darren McFadden ran for 3.6. They had the same QB and O-line; this suggests there's a substantial effect in how personnel on the field affects a defense's readiness. Obviously, Zeke is significantly better than those two, but they're no slouches, and if the o-line is as dominant as people think it is, then pretty much anyone should be able to get 4 YPC without trying, no?
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Old 03-21-2017, 04:54 PM   #118
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re: NFL Draft Discussion 2017

morris and mcfadden seem like the definition of replacement level RBs who people think you could just sub in for zeke and be fine

the other thing is we are talking about the decision at draft time. with zeke you pretty much know what you will get but CBs have a huge bust rate
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Old 03-21-2017, 05:08 PM   #119
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Zeke was hardly a for sure thing. Plus lock down corners are worth twice as much as stud RB. Average top 10 CB pay = 10 million. Average top 10 RB pay = 5 million. Zeke would have to be half as risky almost. Ramsey had zero chance of busting completely. If he struggled at cb you just move him to FS.
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Old 03-21-2017, 06:40 PM   #120
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re: NFL Draft Discussion 2017

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Zeke was hardly a for sure thing.
No draft pick is "a sure thing" but he's about as close as one gets.

I mean you're just asserting "Zeke was no sure thing" and "Ramsey was a sure thing" without any supporting evidence other than the fact that you want it to be.
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Old 03-21-2017, 07:12 PM   #121
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What you're saying is true but just the simple fact CB that bust can move to S kind of like T that struggle can move to G makes Ramsey's chances of busting completely at least lower. He was one of the better CB prospects to come out in the last few years too. If Zeke busts at RB he's Trent Richardson.
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Old 03-21-2017, 07:51 PM   #122
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re: NFL Draft Discussion 2017

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What you're saying is true but just the simple fact CB that bust can move to S kind of like T that struggle can move to G makes Ramsey's chances of busting completely at least lower. He was one of the better CB prospects to come out in the last few years too. If Zeke busts at RB he's Trent Richardson.
How many CB that bust move to safety and are successful?

Not knowing the stats but I always thought being a successful CB is much harder than being a successful RB.
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Old 03-21-2017, 07:53 PM   #123
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re: NFL Draft Discussion 2017

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What you're saying is true but just the simple fact CB that bust can move to S kind of like T that struggle can move to G makes Ramsey's chances of busting completely at least lower. He was one of the better CB prospects to come out in the last few years too. If Zeke busts at RB he's Trent Richardson.
I like Ramsey too (like I said he was #2 on my board and Elliott was #4) but again this reasoning is wrong. Jason Smith couldn't move to guard. Big Mike Williams From Texas Not Big Mike Williams The WR couldn't move to guard. CBs can't just automatically move to safety, or the Saints wouldn't have cut Stanley Jean-Baptiste after one season and eight snaps.

I think Tunsil, Ramsey, Bosa, and Elliott were the four "safe" picks I had that draft. It's not even that I necessarily disagree on Ramsey as a prospect, but Elliott is working out very well and I don't think your reasoning is accurate.
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Old 03-21-2017, 08:03 PM   #124
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re: NFL Draft Discussion 2017

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What you're saying is true but just the simple fact CB that bust can move to S kind of like T that struggle can move to G.
You could've just typed I am clueless about football instead of this.

Many T's can't play G and many CB's can't play S.
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Old 03-21-2017, 08:06 PM   #125
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Not sure on the stats but Byron Jones one of the best young FS in the NFL was who I was thinking of when I made that statement. He was one of my favorite prospects in 2015. Drafted as a CB by Dallas but moved to FS.

This freak!


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