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Old 03-18-2017, 01:03 AM   #26
waterwolves
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re: NFL Draft Discussion 2017

49 MPH would qualify as a noodle arm.
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Old 03-18-2017, 04:27 AM   #27
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re: NFL Draft Discussion 2017

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Originally Posted by Namath12 View Post
wow you have OJ Howard way higher than I'd expect

was hoping he might fall to Miami
Dude is legit good but his landing spot will be big. Was hoping for GB but don't see him falling that far......
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Old 03-18-2017, 05:43 AM   #28
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re: NFL Draft Discussion 2017

For a team that did so well the Giants have a lot of needs

Would be content going either RB, OL, LB or TE with our first pick. He'll I'd be ok if they took a QB to replace Eli starting in 2018.
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Old 03-18-2017, 10:49 AM   #29
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re: NFL Draft Discussion 2017

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I'm hearing Watson's ball was clocked at 49 mph at the combine. That's terrible if true. I understand that's not everything but if that's true it's so bad it's going to make it hard for him to succeed at the NFL level.
This. We probably don't have enough data from the combines but to make a long story short, past data from previous combines shows this is a major caution flag, probably a no go flag. At 55 and above the record is much better than below 55. Surprisingly perhaps at 55-56 has the best results. Again I think it is only since 2008 that we have a record at the combine and some of the best QBs now like Matt Ryan were not measured. I think Mitch is at 55, Kizer 56, Mahomes 60, JimmyG 56. I think it is an important stat FWIW.

Watson has some intangibles though. Btw, for Browns fans, Kessler was measured at 55.

Next we can get into hand sizes of QBs.


Historical QB Combine Data

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Old 03-18-2017, 03:46 PM   #30
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re: NFL Draft Discussion 2017

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This class is getting more disappointing the closer we get. Most of the top prospects have huge concerns.

Garrett- ldo obv number 1
Jamal adams: safest pick in draft imo.
Hooker: big surgery
Allen: arthritic shoulders that's degenerative? Does he make it through 2 nfl contracts?
Fournette: injury concerns and only a 2 down back
Cook: WOAT combine performance ever maybe. Off field redflags as well
Thomas: great athlete that takes plays off. No natural position?
Lattimore: 1 year wonder and injury concerns
Mike williams: gets no separation. His ceiling is like the 15-20th best wr
Ross: torn meniscus, acls,etc. Big question if he can fight through press coverage.
Davis: injury and small school scares
Barnett: not a great athlete but great production

And we all know about the qbs. The more I learn about the top end of this draft the less excited I get.

Literally the best tackle prospect has more than half the nfl front offices worried if he even wants to play football. Such a ****ty draft for top 20 picks.

I'm getting more and more convinced that Reddick is a top 10 pick.
It's a nice TE class. Howard is elite but surprisingly he doesn't have the highest ceiling in this years class. There's an elite TE prospect flying under the radar. He has best TE in the league upside. Howard is the safer pick though.

Safety/CB is as strong as I've ever seen it also. With Obi being a special once every 5 years prospect.

Don't like the WR that are projected to go in the 1st. There's a couple that are going to go in the 2nd i like quite a bit though.

Cook was disappointing but I have never been a fan. That disastrous combine just reinforced my original thoughts on him. Fournette is elite at what he does and he'll be really good if that ankle holds up. I was disappointed in Mixon's pro day because I was leaning special prospect before I saw the numbers and then those fake numbers came out and i was getting all excited. Enter real numbers and meh. Landing spot is so huge for average RB. He does a lot of stuff well he's just not a special athlete. Average/good athlete.

That Watt kid is growing on me. I think he's going to sneak into the 1st round. He needs to add some weight.
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Old 03-18-2017, 05:08 PM   #31
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re: NFL Draft Discussion 2017

I'm not terribly exited about Fournette unless he's a lot better pass blocker and receiver than I think he is.
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Old 03-18-2017, 05:30 PM   #32
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re: NFL Draft Discussion 2017

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wow you have OJ Howard way higher than I'd expect

was hoping he might fall to Miami
I don't think he'll go that high, but he's a complete freak of an athlete and has the complete TE package. David Njoku might end up being the freaker Jimmy Graham-type receiver but Howard is a very good receiver who's athletic enough he could probably be a pass rusher if he wanted to. (He's like a less explosive but quicker Vernon Davis.)

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I think the mike williams bashing is a bit from treadwell being god awful. I got that one massively wrong. People hated alshon/brandon marshall types too coming out in the draft too (neither were first rounders, hell jets drafted stephen hill before alshon jeffrey if I recall correctly) so *shrugs*. We still haven't hit on those types that are great vs busts yet.
Williams is so good at winning consistently at the catch point that I'm not at all worried about separation. Treadwell I'm still holding out hope for because he's very young and considering how badly his foot was ****ed up it may just need more time to heal. Of course, it's also possible he'll never get his full athleticism back, which would be a real shame-- he's got such a terrific game on film.


Quote:
Originally Posted by adios View Post
This. We probably don't have enough data from the combines but to make a long story short, past data from previous combines shows this is a major caution flag, probably a no go flag. At 55 and above the record is much better than below 55. Surprisingly perhaps at 55-56 has the best results. Again I think it is only since 2008 that we have a record at the combine and some of the best QBs now like Matt Ryan were not measured. I think Mitch is at 55, Kizer 56, Mahomes 60, JimmyG 56. I think it is an important stat FWIW.

Watson has some intangibles though. Btw, for Browns fans, Kessler was measured at 55.

Next we can get into hand sizes of QBs.


Historical QB Combine Data
As I said, I've seen this data, and I think it's too small and too incomplete to draw any meaningful conclusions. It only goes back to 2008, and look how often the projected top QBs in a class didn't throw: Matt Ryan didn't throw. Matt Stafford didn't throw. Sam Bradford didn't throw. Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin, and Ryan Tannehill all didn't throw. Teddy Bridgewater didn't throw at the Combine; Derek Carr didn't throw at all. I don't think you can draw any meaningful conclusions from the ball velocity of a couple dozen mid-round prospects who almost all weren't going to make it anyway and apply anything definite to top-rated prospects.
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Old 03-18-2017, 05:40 PM   #33
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re: NFL Draft Discussion 2017

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I'm not terribly exited about Fournette unless he's a lot better pass blocker and receiver than I think he is.
For me a 2 down back seems like a waste of a pick in the first round but what do I know. Yes, I'm aware adrian peterson exists but a first round back has to do it all in today's game.
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Old 03-18-2017, 06:00 PM   #34
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re: NFL Draft Discussion 2017

Fournette's talent level is just absurd, but he is the kind of guy who could slide because he's the kind of player who fits best as the centerpiece of an offense, and there just aren't that many run-first offenses in the NFL anymore.

That said, I could see Jacksonville, Carolina, or Cincinnati taking him in the top ten. Maybe even San Francisco given that their QB depth chart is currently Brian Hoyer / Matt Barkley.
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Old 03-18-2017, 06:13 PM   #35
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I'm not terribly exited about Fournette unless he's a lot better pass blocker and receiver than I think he is.
Fournette is the best power running back to come out in ages. If you take the Alabama games out and look at his stats he's been completely unstoppable against everybody else. His hands aren't David Johnson but who's are.

Not worried about his pass blocking at all. He can be coached up. Better prospect than Ezekiel Elliott.
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Old 03-18-2017, 06:41 PM   #36
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re: NFL Draft Discussion 2017

He's slower and not a receiving threat though. PASS unless being average+ is the end goal.
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Old 03-18-2017, 06:43 PM   #37
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re: NFL Draft Discussion 2017

We are all still LolRunningBacks before 3rd Rd here, right.
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Old 03-18-2017, 06:56 PM   #38
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re: NFL Draft Discussion 2017

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Fournette's talent level is just absurd, but he is the kind of guy who could slide because he's the kind of player who fits best as the centerpiece of an offense, and there just aren't that many run-first offenses in the NFL anymore.

That said, I could see Jacksonville, Carolina, or Cincinnati taking him in the top ten. Maybe even San Francisco given that their QB depth chart is currently Brian Hoyer / Matt Barkley.
God, if SF takes Fournette 2nd overall...........................the Lynch era will be marred with utter stupidity (probably already has been marred with it).
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Old 03-18-2017, 07:05 PM   #39
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re: NFL Draft Discussion 2017

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He's slower and not a receiving threat though. PASS unless being average+ is the end goal.
What do you mean by "slow"? I don't think he's slow. He ran a great 40 for his size and he runs with so much power that he can simply truck over defenders.

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We are all still LolRunningBacks before 3rd Rd here, right.
I'm not.
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Old 03-18-2017, 07:07 PM   #40
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I guess I can see an elite pass catching back as a decent 2nd Rd option, but aren't you improperly structuring your offense from jump street by investing so heavily in a two down bulldozer RB. Basically, he has to hit his top-line expectation to make it correct.
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Old 03-18-2017, 07:22 PM   #41
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What's the earliest pick you would have used on Ezekiel Elliott?
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Old 03-18-2017, 07:27 PM   #42
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What's the earliest pick you would have used on Ezekiel Elliott?
If I have an elite OL, earlier then if I have a trash one. They had all the pieces in place to best maximize a good RBs talent. Most teams who will be drafting that high don't.
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Old 03-18-2017, 07:36 PM   #43
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But that's not really an answer. Does that mean top-5? Top-15? Top-50? Or "wouldn't take any RB before the third round no matter what," like Heroball said?

See, I heard criticisms last year that because the Cowboys have an elite o-line, they don't need an elite running back. I think people generally kinda fit the evidence to whatever theory they already have about running backs.

I think people overrate how easy it is to find an impact running back later because A)it's easier to quantify successful performance with RB than with most positions and B)they don't necessarily pay attention to whether a running back can do that consistently year after year. There is a difference between "running backs you can use in committee and still have a functioning offense" and "game-changing running backs."
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Old 03-18-2017, 07:38 PM   #44
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I would take someone like Faulk top 5 who is a 3 down back and elite receiver to bat. AP is probably top 5 worthy if you get the same production he got. Is the marginal value of a Top 5 pick rookie that much more than a top 2nd round RB?
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Old 03-18-2017, 07:41 PM   #45
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re: NFL Draft Discussion 2017

carolina is still going to try to run the ball 30+ times a game because they have no wr or qb. i'd rather do most of that with fournette than stewart again who is decent but never does anything special.
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Old 03-18-2017, 07:43 PM   #46
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Yeah I'd love for the j stew era to end. I'm fully expecting Carolina to take a rb and am fine with it
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Old 03-18-2017, 07:53 PM   #47
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What do you mean by "slow"? I don't think he's slow. He ran a great 40 for his size and he runs with so much power that he can simply truck over defenders.



I'm not.


Fournette is def not slow. Seattle would die to have him. This notion he is not capable of being a 3 down back is wrong too. No he's not going run plays out of the slot but there are backs that don't do that who are still 3 down backs. Look at Zeke.

You can build an offense around him and many teams who don't have QB should.
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Old 03-18-2017, 08:03 PM   #48
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Fournette can def do that.
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Old 03-18-2017, 08:05 PM   #49
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Zeke was much better coming out in the passing game than fournette is.

Some team is taking him at worst in the top 8 though, it's the NFL. It's just tough to justify for non power rushing offenses.
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Old 03-18-2017, 08:28 PM   #50
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re: NFL Draft Discussion 2017

Just for fun, I looked up the top ten all-time leaders in yards from scrimmage at running back. Here are their draft positions:

Round 1, pick 17
Round 1, pick 4
Round 1, pick 2
Round 1, pick 5
Round 1, pick 3
Round 1, pick 10
Round 3, pick 74
Round 2, pick 40
Round 3, pick 65
Round 1, pick 2

If you want to add the rest of the RBs who surpassed 15,000 career yards from scrimmage:

Round 2, pick 36
Round 1, pick 4
Round 1, pick 2
Round 1, pick 12
Round 1, pick 24
Round 1, pick 10
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