remember the analysts are all morons

When you start comparing him to people in the past, you have to compare him to a guy like Joe Montana,” analyst Louis Riddick said. “It jumped off the screen at me.

even those of us who screwed it up never said anything this stupid about Jared Goff

Louis this morning said he'd take Adams if he picked #1 - rolled out the 'loves football' line

Teddy got some Joe comps ITF.

Mitch Trubisky the next Mark Sanchez?

The last QB picked this high in a draft with so little college starting experience was Akili Smith and we know where he went.

A few years back, I remember looking up successful QBs and their amount of starting experience in college and a substantial amount had 3 or more years of experience. I think any QB with less than 2 years of starting experience needs to be looked at with some suspicion if they are expected to contribute immediately.

I guess I'm a bit cynical but Trubisky has bust written all over him. Sanchez seems like a good comparison to me. They're nearly identical wrt height/weight to boot.

Akili smith was dumb as a rock to be fair. Kizer's just a middle to late rd prospect to me at this stage, rough comp %, his team was awful, etc. He got benched for being so bad. The Cutler comps are a bit unfair tho, cutler/elway didn't win but both were on the worst football schools in the conference. Notre Dame isn't what their fans think it is, but he had veteran OL+WR's, why was he that bad?

he'll be a stud now ofc b/c I don't know **** about QB's.

Cam? Unless junior college counts

Cam had two years, right? Akili had (I think) 1 1/2.

Mitch has 1.

I really hope Mitch is taken before the Bills' pick at 10, or else I have a bad feeling...

Sanchez had less experience than Smith and is more recent. I am however also skeptical of him not only being a starter for one year but also taking so long to win the job. (Mahomes, Watson, Kizer, and Brad Kaaya were all starting by 18/19. Trubisky was 22 when he won the job. Kizer turns 22 next January, the other three guys this September.)

That said, Trubisky shows some nice traits and some team will take a chance on him. And there's reason to think the reason he didn't win the job before 2016 had as much to do with politics/recruiting (can't bench the local boy who's a senior) as anything. That said, UNC was 8-5? Flashes or not, Trubisky didn't exactly elevate the team.

Lots of speculation Kizer was playing injured last year, and of course one wonders how much it affected his mental game with a dip**** like Brian Kelly constantly holding the threat of benching over him.

Oddly, Cian likes Trubisky and Kizer the best of the QBs, I think. But he hates Mahomes, who I love. Really, any of these four guys (Watson included), you can find something to love if you want to love 'em, or something to hate if you want to hate 'em.

trubisky did have really good numbers overall last year without any notable receivers

probably won't be a great starter but the odds are against anyone being a great starter

So this was the results of my half-hearted QB modeling last year in January...

Not sure if these are good results, but meh. Too early to say much definitively, yet.

I meant to flesh out my system more last year, but never got around to it, & not likely to do it this year either. Will plug in some random stuff & randomly rate the top QB prospects again, though (took the top 10 according to Walter Football)...

Mitch Trubisky


Pat Mahomes
Jerod Evans


Nate Peterman
Brad Kaaya
Deshaun Watson





Chad Kelly
DeShone Kizer
Josh Dobbs
Davis Webb

By far the closest comp I see to Trubisky is actually Paxton Lynch...which doesn't really help much evaluation-wise.

I saw a couple flaws in my system last year & revised it a tiny bit. I also ran Dak's #s against it & he would have been right in the Mayfield/Wentz/Hogan group...

sounds like your system is as terrible as NFL evaluation or mine.

Maybe there is no good system, just filtering out some of the bad is the best that can be done.

fwiw (ie nothing) I have Watson and Mahomes better than a late first where I had the highest rated one (Goff, I'm dumb) last year. So the narrative the class isn't as good is mostly that we haven't seen trades for the top two and every analyst scrambling to justify it.

Last year's draft class sucked, too.

I realized I didn't ding enough for int's last year, which is why Goff got his own tier, which is why Watson ends up so far down... he threw a ridiculous # of them.

This is just a half-azzed statistics-only model that I haven't even bothered to flesh out.

I'm only going to scrap the whole thing if players like Cook/Cardale/Webb end up being good.

This Davis Webb might be a 1st round pick thing was the most mind-boggling thing after looking at the #s.

He's put up objectively bad #s in an offense that Goff, who sucked last year in the NFL, put objectively excellent #s in.

I guess "bad" is strong...bust-tier #s.

The #'s were also noted about Blaine Gabbert vs Chase Daniel. Daniel was definitively better and was UDFA.

Goff is one of those guy a lot of people I trust liked, and then when I watched him in the NFL he looked like he was nowhere close to the talent level required of an NFL quarterback. There's never been a rookie of significant volume nearly as bad as him.

I wonder what everyone missed. The Air Raid pretty clearly inflated his stats, and his lack of pre-snap responsibilities meant he would need some time to adjust, but at the same time, he doesn't even look like he has the necessary NFL arm strength, his accuracy and placement are nothing special, and he had a poor sense for the rush too.

The Davis Webb hype is silly but scouts love 6'5" big-armed guys.

Watson's INTs are a little worrisome but given his excellence at pre-snap reads and manipulating the defense, and the fact that he's so often aggressively taking chances, that I'm willing to live with them and I think they'll taper off as his career progresses.

His arm strength was worse as a NFL rook than his college film I thought, but I ain't gonna look back and check. Maybe he was hurt, part of it being lol rams since we all knew that was gonna be bad for him, greg robinson, etc. It looks like he sucks balls and lol us though. I did say at the time he needed to sit a full year first or risk ruining any and all confidence.

However, I've been wrong on QB's too much to say it's not dartboard throwing.

We can all get aboard the Jerod Evans hype-train, though, right?

A wise man once told me that a system that spits out losers is just as valuable as a system that spits out winners

I guess Reuben Foster failed a drug test at the combine & that's a big part of why his stock is dropping.

He says it was because he was suffering food poisoning & people were saying he was too light so he drank a ton of fluids & ate a ton of food before showing up?

Who knows, someone is most likely going to get a steal late round 1 tho.

I've been wondering how he suddenly was never getting a mention before about 16. I think he looks like an incredible prospect but maybe being mean and rude are hindrances for an LB

Perhaps some teams just went, "He went to the same school as Aaron Rodgers and his stats and Wonderlic were better than his! Plus he's 6'4"!"

With regards to LB, given equal talent level, defensively you're gonna take everything but nose tackle first. Just doesn't have the positional value in today's 3 WR passing league.

Foster projects as a 3-down LB who should be impactful against the run & with good cover skills. That's a valuable position.

Injury problems, drug problems & average instincts aside.