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Old 03-13-2017, 12:17 PM   #1
Zimmer4141
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Exclamation NCAA Tournament First Round (No Longer Featuring GOAT COAST) (But featuring the Second Round)

After maybe the GOAT NCAA Final game ever... March Madness is BACK for another wild ride. How can anybody top Kris Jenkins's Buzzer Beater to win the title?



By having another opportunity for a cornucopia of gambling of course!




16 games over 13 hours. Buzzer Beaters... Upsets... VERNE... GOAT COAST... What could be better?

On to the games.

12:15 Eastern - CBS - 5. Notre Dame vs. 12. Princeton
Line: ND -6.5
Preview: Game between two very similar teams. Both teams are slow-paced, take very good care of the ball, and do their best to not give away free possessions. Notre Dame's vulnerability is their poor rebounding due to their lack of size, but that isn't exactly something Princeton can take advantage of as they are #318 in OReb% nationally.
Kenpom Stat O' The Game: Offensive Turnover Rate: Princeton #11, Notre Dame #1. As I've said, this will be a half court game with very few free points for either team.
Zimmer's Pick: Notre Dame and the points. It might be a slow game to start, but Notre Dame is really good offensively and will grind out a comfortable win.

12:40 Eastern - 5. Virginia vs. 12. UNC Wilmington
Line: Virginia -8.5
Preview: A battle of contrasting styles here. Virginia plays the absolute slowest tempo in college basketball. They play Tony Bennett's famous Pack Line defense, aggressively defending the paint. UNC-W likes to run a bit more. They struggle with interior defense but try to take advantage of transition opportunities to score easy buckets.
Kenpom Stat O' The Game: UNC-W 2P% Defense vs. UVA 2P% Offense. UNC-W Defense: #328, UVA Offense #142. If UNC-W has a problem it is that they struggle to defend the interior. Unfortunately I'm not sure Virginia is equipped to take advantage of this. Their bigs are very limited offensively and Perrantes is really the only player for UVA capable of getting to the hole with ease.
Zimmer's Pick: UNC-Wilmington wins outright. Virginia's offensive limitations are once again their achilles heel and we see our first upset of the tournament in the 2nd game.

1:30 Eastern - TNT 4. Butler vs. 13. Winthrop
Line: Butler -11
Preview: Butler is similar to the last two high seeds we've previewed. A good team from a power conference that slows the pace down, plays efficient offense and solid defense. Winthrop is largely untested, with only one P-5 win over Illinois from November.
Kenpom Stat O' The Game: AdjO - Butler #17, Winthrop #137.
Zimmer's Pick: Butler has too many ways to score against an average defense in Winthrop. Don't really see anything that Winthrop does that will cause Butler problems. Easy win for Butler.

2:00 - TBS 1. Gonzaga vs. 16. South Dakota State
Line: Gonzaga -22
Preview: Sadly for SDSU they are running into an absolute buzzsaw of efficiency. If they had Nate Wolters back they might have a shot, but I don't see much of it here.
Kenpom Stat O' The Game: Gonzaga eFG% Offense and Defense. Offense #2, Defense #1. Despite an easier schedule than the other 1 seeds, Gonzaga has put up an impressive resume this season.
Zimmer's Pick: Game won't be close. Not sure that Gonzaga will cover the 22, but they won't be the first 1 seed to drop a game to a 16.

2:45 Eastern - CBS 4. West Virginia vs. 13. Bucknell
Line: West Virginia -13.5
Preview: West Virginia's full court press is back in action for another year, set to terrorize opponents' point guards, and they may have found easy prey in Bucknell.
Kenpom Stat O' The Game: Turnover% Bucknell Offense vs. WVU Defense. Bucknell Offense #200, WVU Defense #1. This is the game right here. If Bucknell can break the press and get some easy buckets it can be close. If not, it's gonna be a long day for the Bison.
Zimmer's pick: WVU press is too much for Bucknell. 13.5 is a lot of points, but WVU isn't in danger of falling in the first round.

3:10 Eastern - TruTV 4. Florida vs. 13. East Tennessee St
Line: Florida -10
Preview: Florida comes into this game as a top 5 team in the nation defensively led by the perimeter defense of Kasey Hill and KeVaughn Allen. ETSU is a very efficient offense when they take care of the ball. Unfortunately, that's been a problem for them as they are #307 nationally in turnover rate, turning the ball over on over 20% of their possessions.
Kenpom Stat O' The Game: ETSU FTA/FGA vs. Florida Bench Minutes. ETSU FTA/FGA #11, Florida Bench Minutes #57. ETSU relies on getting to the line to drive their offense. Unfortunately, Florida plays one of the deepest rotations in the tournament, so foul trouble is never an issue for them.
Zimmer's Pick: Closer game, Florida probably wins but there is def some upset potential here.

4:00 Eastern - TNT 5. Minnesota vs. 12. Middle Tennessee
Line: PICKEM
Preview: Both of these teams were terribly seeded by the committee, with MTSU getting little respect and Minnesota getting way too much. Minnesota is very athletic and plays very good defense, although they are young and limited offensively. MTSU has loads of experience with Reggie Upshaw and Giddy Potts back from a team that upset Michigan State in the first round last year.
Kenpom Stat O' The Game: Effective FG% Minnesota #249, MTSU #35. Minnesota can really struggle sometimes in the half court offense, especially when Nate Mason isn't involved in the possession. MTSU is a very strong, well rounded team.
Zimmer's Pick: MTSU is just flat out better and I expect them to win. This Minnesota team will be dangerous in years to come if they keep adding recruits, but they're not there yet.

4:30 - TBS 8. Northwestern vs. 9. Vanderbilt
Line: Vanderbilt -1
Preview: Finally after decades of basketball in Evanston, they finally make their first NCAA Tournament appearance. Chris Collins is a very good young coach, but NW enters the tournament on a bit of a slide, losing 7 of their last 10 games against teams that aren't Rutgers. Vanderbilt has 3 wins over Florida but not much else on their resume.
Kenpom Stat O' The Game: Tempo. NW #300, Vanderbilt #284. This is going to be a half court showdown. Both teams play slow, stay off the offensive glass to get back on defense. Points will be at a premium.
Zimmer's Pick: Northwestern gets their first ever Tournament win in their first game there.


That's it for now. Will get previews of the night games up sometime tonight. Quick night game preview:





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Old 03-13-2017, 12:20 PM   #2
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Re: NCAA Tournament First Round FEATURING GOAT COAST

In for the GOATening
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Old 03-13-2017, 12:24 PM   #3
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Re: NCAA Tournament First Round FEATURING GOAT COAST

In.
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Old 03-13-2017, 12:42 PM   #4
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Re: NCAA Tournament First Round FEATURING GOAT COAST

please edit these into the OP:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L1nJKwOUjVU





















I couldn't find the full SDSU game, but if anyone has a link let me know. Will probably watch the Georgetown game in full tonight to get hyped.
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Old 03-13-2017, 12:51 PM   #5
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Re: NCAA Tournament First Round FEATURING GOAT COAST

What a better way for the GOAT coast to start their title run by GOATing all over Fsu.

Oh, and **** Fsu. **** em hard
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Old 03-13-2017, 01:10 PM   #6
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Re: NCAA Tournament First Round FEATURING GOAT COAST

Awesome zimmer.
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Old 03-13-2017, 01:12 PM   #7
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Re: NCAA Tournament First Round FEATURING GOAT COAST

VARIDEL
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Old 03-13-2017, 01:40 PM   #8
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Re: NCAA Tournament First Round FEATURING GOAT COAST

Any good podcasts out there discussing the tournament?
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Old 03-13-2017, 01:42 PM   #9
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Re: NCAA Tournament First Round FEATURING GOAT COAST

GOAT OP. Thanks for insight!
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Old 03-13-2017, 02:51 PM   #10
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Re: NCAA Tournament First Round FEATURING GOAT COAST

Minnesota is also down one of their better offensive weapons, Akeem Springs, out for the year. As vulnerable a 5 seed as you'll ever see.
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Old 03-13-2017, 03:03 PM   #11
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Re: NCAA Tournament First Round FEATURING GOAT COAST

i have no idea how middle tennessee is going to score on minnesota

middle tennessee barely shoots 3s and is 8th nationally in % of points from 2pointers and minnesota's interior defense is really good
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Old 03-13-2017, 03:15 PM   #12
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Re: NCAA Tournament First Round FEATURING GOAT COAST

GIDDY POTTS SON


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Old 03-13-2017, 03:42 PM   #13
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Re: NCAA Tournament First Round FEATURING GOAT COAST

Awesome OP.
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Old 03-13-2017, 04:37 PM   #14
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Re: NCAA Tournament First Round FEATURING GOAT COAST

Thursday Night Games:

6:50 Eastern - TNT 6. Maryland vs. 11. Xavier
Line: Maryland -2
Preview: Two teams that ended the regular season on rough losing stretches. Xavier ended the regular season by losing 6 straight sandwiched in between two wins against doormat DePaul. Maryland lost 3 straight including 2 at home to Iowa and Minnesota, then dropped their first game of the B1G Tournament against Northwestern.
Kenpom Stat O' The Game: Xavier OReb vs. Maryland DReb: Xavier OReb #26, Maryland DReb #292. If Maryland struggles to clean up the boards, it could lead to second chance points that Trimble and Company can't make up on the other end.
Zimmer's Pick: I'd go with Xavier in this one for no particular reason. Neither of these teams are particularly good, Maryland just seems to have a few more glaring holes. Likely a close game.

7:10 Eastern - CBS 1. Villanova vs. 16. Ahh who gives a ****
Line: Villanova - A lot
Preview: You'll have plenty of games to watch the defending national champs. Go watch other games.
Kenpom Stat O' The Game: Villanova joins Gonzaga as the only 2 teams in the country that are top 12 in both AdjO and AdjD. Very well balanced, very well coached, they return most of their team from last year.
Zimmer's Pick: Villanova big.

7:20 Eastern - TBS 7. Saint Mary's vs. 10. VCU
Line: Saint Mary's -4.5
Preview: Battle of two mid-major darlings here. Saint Mary's plays very reminiscent of Bo Ryan Wisconsin teams. Solid on both ends wrapped up in a very slow, grinding style. VCU hasn't lost a beat since losing Shaka Smart to Texas (given his results there you could argue they're better off). They don't play as much of an up-tempo press style, but they still force plenty of turnovers.
Kenpom Stat O' The Game: SMC eFG% vs. VCU Defense eFG%. SMC eFG% #4, VCU Defense eFG% #38. Saint Mary's doesn't turn the ball over and they will force this into a half court game. Can VCU Defend well enough in the half court against their efficient attack?
Zimmer's Pick: Saint Mary's is just too solid for VCU. VCU can find cracks in teams when they play sloppy, but Saint Mary's play is much closer to careful than sloppy.

7:27 Eastern - TruTV 4. Purdue vs. 13. Vermont
Line: Purdue -8.5
Preview: The Catamounts last loss came on Dec 21, running roughshod over the America East conference. They played some tough games in the non-conference but came away 0-4 against Power 6 opponents. Purdue is a very Jekyll and Hyde team that will look like world-beaters around their All-American candidate Caleb Swanigan one game, then come out the next and look sloppy, uninterested, and play terrible basketball.
Kenpom Stat O' The Game: 3PA/Game. Purdue is #4 in 3PA/Game. Vermont is #21 in 3PA/Game allowed. This might have more to do with their opponents than their defense, but it could also be an indicator of how well they defend the perimeter. Can Purdue get the open looks that their offense thrives off of, and if they do, can they hit enough to stave off an upset?
Zimmer's Pick: This game has 4 out of 5 Baylors on the Upset Potential Metric. I don't believe Matt Painter is a good in game coach and Purdue has come out flat in big games enough times that they could do it again.

9:20 Eastern - 3. Florida State vs. 14. GOAT COAST DUNK CITY
Line: Florida St -12
Preview: DUNK CITY IS BACK! This isn't a run and gun variety of Dunk City, but they do still get most of their points from the paint. They don't shoot threes really at all, getting 57.5% of their points from 2-Pointers.
Kenpom Stat O' The Game: Florida State Defense 2P% vs. FGCU 2PA/G. As I've said, FGCU thrives inside, ranking #11 in points per game from 2 pointers. Unfortunately, Florida State Defense is #34 in opponent's 2P%, and that's unadjusted for competition.
Zimmer's Pick: I don't really see a repeat of DUNK CITY here. Florida State has too much size and depth, and FGCU can't shoot over the top of the defense which is how to take advantage of FSU.

9:40 Eastern - CBS 8. Wisconsin vs. 9. Virginia Tech
Line: Wisconsin -4.5
Preview: A matchup of two very average teams here. Virginia Tech played the tougher schedule, but Wisconsin probably has the better team and the better resume. Another slow, grinding affair, as Wisconsin will never get caught in a running style of game.
Kenpom Stat O' The Game: Got two here. OReb% and eFG%. On offense, VT is #7 in eFG but #324 in OReb%. Wisconsin is #43 in eFG% Defense and #30 on DReb%. Virginia Tech better score on their first shot because they're not gonna get many second chances.
Zimmer's Pick: Wisconsin wins as comfortably as they can (so like 8 points). Wisconsin found their game again in the Big Ten Tournament and I don't think Virginia Tech can put up enough points.

9:50 Eastern - TBS 2. Arizona vs. 15. North Dakota
Line: Arizona -16.5
Preview: A team that does everything pretty well against a team that doesn't do anything particularly well. Don't see much in this one, and you'll have some GOAT COAST to watch, so don't bother.
Kenpom Stat O' The Game: Got nothing. Seriously, Arizona is like a Toyota Camry. They're pretty good at everything but nothing stands out. Markannen can be fun to watch.
Zimmer's Pick: Prob not much chance of an upset unless Arizona really plays terribly.

9:57 Eastern - 5. Iowa State vs. 12. Nevada
Line: Iowa State -6
Preview: Iowa State finished the season by winning the Big XII tournament, aided by the fact that they didn't have to play Kansas. They finished the season by winning 9 of their last 10 games including all 3 in the Big XII tournament. Nevada comes into the tournament with very few quality wins, but high hopes after winning the Mountain West Regular Season and Tournament.
Kenpom Stat O' The Game: Offense and 3P%. Nevada is #34 and #33 in AdjO and 3P%. Iowa State is #13 and #11 in those categories. Points will be scored, who can get stops and rebounds will likely determine the game.
Zimmer's Pick: Iowa State is really strong. They're underseeded, and Nevada isn't all they're cracked up to be. I like Iowa State.
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Old 03-13-2017, 04:52 PM   #15
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Re: NCAA Tournament First Round FEATURING GOAT COAST

Any regs (cald? zimmer?) want action on every game? I want action on the o/u for every game of the tourney for an extra sweat. 20-100/game

I've been doing this with spreads with a friend for years and its a blast and think adding the o/u could only make it more fun. The way we've done it is someone gets to pick the Thur/Sun games and someone gets the Fri/Sat games each weekend and whoever isn't picking just fades that. Second weekend whoever is behind picks if they want Thur/Sun or Fri/Sat slate and whoever trails after that gets to pick which of the 2 f4 games they want and same with title game.
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Old 03-13-2017, 05:07 PM   #16
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Re: NCAA Tournament First Round FEATURING GOAT COAST

Sure
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Old 03-13-2017, 06:13 PM   #17
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Re: NCAA Tournament First Round FEATURING GOAT COAST

Suppose I'm in

ETA: To thread not degen
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Old 03-13-2017, 07:47 PM   #18
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Re: NCAA Tournament First Round FEATURING GOAT COAST

great work, Zimmer

in 4 green beer Friday
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Old 03-13-2017, 09:11 PM   #19
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Re: NCAA Tournament First Round FEATURING GOAT COAST

this espn Tournament Challenge show has been embarrassingly unwatchable. how can anyone screw this up?

lol espn as usual. stop trying to be hip and edgy.
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Old 03-13-2017, 09:52 PM   #20
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Re: NCAA Tournament First Round FEATURING GOAT COAST

I'm a little concerned that the dunking/celebrating/hot wifeness of this rendition of FGCU may not live up to its lofty standard. Tell me I'm wrong.
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Old 03-13-2017, 09:54 PM   #21
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Re: NCAA Tournament First Round FEATURING GOAT COAST

FSU by 20
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Old 03-13-2017, 09:55 PM   #22
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Re: NCAA Tournament First Round FEATURING GOAT COAST

in for the GOAT postseason. Exchanged days off with a co-worker. Ready for 12 hours of basketball Thursday
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Old 03-13-2017, 10:00 PM   #23
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Re: NCAA Tournament First Round FEATURING GOAT COAST

DUNK CITY
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Old 03-13-2017, 10:33 PM   #24
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Re: NCAA Tournament First Round FEATURING GOAT COAST

Quote:
Originally Posted by Zimmer4141 View Post
12:40 Eastern - 5. Virginia vs. 12. UNC Wilmington
Line: Virginia -8.5
Preview: A battle of contrasting styles here. Virginia plays the absolute slowest tempo in college basketball. They play Tony Bennett's famous Pack Line defense, aggressively defending the paint. UNC-W likes to run a bit more. They struggle with interior defense but try to take advantage of transition opportunities to score easy buckets.
Kenpom Stat O' The Game: UNC-W 2P% Defense vs. UVA 2P% Offense. UNC-W Defense: #328, UVA Offense #142. If UNC-W has a problem it is that they struggle to defend the interior. Unfortunately I'm not sure Virginia is equipped to take advantage of this. Their bigs are very limited offensively and Perrantes is really the only player for UVA capable of getting to the hole with ease.
Zimmer's Pick: UNC-Wilmington wins outright. Virginia's offensive limitations are once again their achilles heel and we see our first upset of the tournament in the 2nd game.
I'm going to disagree here.

You are very correct that the bigs are very limited offensively. That's probably an understatement, to be quite honest.

BUT...UNCW is a small team. In the non-conference season, UVa's bigs (this is from memory - I'm not looking at stats) did just fine against smaller teams. Reuter actually does have a decent offensive repertoire, but he's undersized for his position and not particularly athletic, so he struggled finding offense against ACC competition. Against smaller mid-majors, though, he could do some things. Same for Wilkins. Salt towers over UNCW.

As for guys getting to the rim, Hall and Shayok are solid in that department. Virginia's problem in ACC play was that without the bigs contributing anything on offense, it was up to the guards to penetrate, which against that level of competition, was an inconsistent endeavor. That, and the team's scoring was mostly dependent on jump shooting. When those outside shots didn't fall, they had that ugly four-game losing streak.

Also, mid-majors rarely have an answer for Virginia's defense. They know what they are up against, but they've never had to deal with anything like it.

I'm not saying Virginia can't lose. In fact, I'd be surprised if they got to the Sweet 16. As we've seen, the team's offense has totally disappeared at times this season and if that happens Thursday, they are in trouble. The matchup is interesting, since UNCW loves shooting threes and Virginia's defense attempts to prevent points in the paint. If UNCW starts draining threes like crazy and Virginia decides itself to shoot threes all day and misses, Virginia could very well lose.
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Old 03-13-2017, 10:46 PM   #25
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Re: NCAA Tournament First Round FEATURING GOAT COAST

The most wonderful time of the year
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