Close race between Taysom and Mariota imo

FYP

guys it is still todd gurley. cmon guys.

my vote goes to chubb!

He's so awesome and irreplaceable! How will UGA get on with life without him?

lol

Here's a list of "ranked" teams who haven't beaten an actual Top-25 team: Marshall, ECU, Ohio State, Nebraska and... LSU.

Also, Ohio State's schedule is so weak, they wouldn't even make the top-4 in the accomplishment rankings even if they were undefeated.

Also, Michigan State is STILL ranked ahead of Oregon in the USA Today poll despite being a worse team, having a worse resume and losing H2H. I mean they're ranked ahead of Auburn and Georgia too, but the fact that H2H is there makes it so ridiculously laughable.

I find it hard to believe that regressing interception rates all the way to the national average could possibly be correct vs actually trying to figure out how much to regress back. There has to be some skill involved even if there is a large amount of variance too.

Someone earlier mentioned a 6 team playoff with two getting byes. I'm liking that more and more, so a 12-0 Miss St makes the playoff even if they lose the SEC CG (not punishing them for having to play one more top opponent) but still has tremendous motivation to win it.

I think Michigan State will be a good litmus test for the trust I have in the committee. If they're ranked 10th or something in the first poll then I'll be releived. If they're ahead of Oregon...

It's not. The absolute best thing to regress interceptions back to is actual average incomplete passes. Out of "interceptions thrown", "passes attempted", and "completion percentage", by far the worst one for predicting future interceptions was past interceptions thrown. The other two were about equally correlated as independent options, and if you combine them into the logical "incompletions" it worked slightly better than either individually.

At least that's how I remember the results (I can't find the data now, and I did it three years ago, so there's a chance I'm remembering my results incorrectly.)

Regressing all the way back to national averages was my suggestion for fumbles lost. And I suspect it would be more accurate of a predictor than actual fumbles lost (not that that means it's necessarily "best" compared to all other options - although I can't think of what individual stat I would expect to show a statistically significant correlation to fumbles lost...)

in the silly rankings/ratings I did (below) Michigan State was 21 and Ohio State was 24.

Michigan State's top 3 wins and their opponents predictor ranking

Nebraska 18
Indiana 76
Purdue 81

Oregon's top 3 wins and their opponents predictor ranking

Michigan 12
UCLA 21
Washington 35

How can any pollster put Michigan State over Oregon?

1. Mississippi State 6-0 (50)
2. Ole Miss 7-0 (61)
3. Auburn 5-1 (61)
4. Alabama 6-1 (74)
5. FSU 7-0 (104)
6. Georgia 6-1 (111)
7. Oregon 6-1 (125)
8. TCU 5-1 (129)
9. West Virginia 5-2 (143)
10. LSU 6-2 (149)
11. Oklahoma 5-2 (150)
12. Texas A and M (176)
13. Arizona State (180)
14. Clemson 5-2 (187)
15. Baylor 6-1 (189)
16. Kansas State 5-1 (191)
17. UCLA 5-2 (194)
18. Notre Dame 6-1 (195)
19. Arizona 5-1 (195)
20. USC 5-2 (242)
21. Michigan State 6-1 (248)
22. Utah 5-1 (249)
23. Nebraska 6-1 (252)
24. Ohio State 5-1 (281)
25. Oklahoma State 5-2 (329)
26. Marshall 7-0 (455)

Sounds like whatever else people disagree on, we definitely agree on my relative ranking of Oregon and Sparty.

I just want to ask those voters if they would have Oregon as an underdog to sparty on a neutral field.

So long as it's OK to have Oregon above zona

Which teams control their own destiny? The sec teams with one loss or less and Oregon and fsu I'd say

Do these rankings come out soon? The real committee ones. Hopefully they project conference champions so we can see how much weight that carries.

I'd say that both Mississippis, both Alabamas, FSU, and Oregon are the teams with 95%+ chances of making the playoff if they win out (which is good enough to count as "controlling their own destiny". Probably actually in the 98-100% range, rounded to the nearest percentage point.)

Teams with a 75-95% chance of making the playoff if they win out include:
Notre Dame, Michigan State, Ohio State, Nebraska, Georgia, TCU, Kansas State, Baylor, Arizona, Arizona State, and Utah.

And there are definitely some teams outside of the current top 25 that have somewhere in the range of 10% playoff equity if they manage to win out.

How can so many teams have such high chances? Because the vast majority of the teams above *won't* win out.

It's not a power ranking necessarily

Arizona State and Utah control their own destiny as well.

ASU can still finish 12-1 with wins over Oregon, @ USC, @ Arizona, Notre Dame, Utah, @ Washington, @ OSUw and Stanford. Nobody outside the SEC is coming close to a 1-loss record like that.

Even if FSU goes undefeated and the SEC gets 2 teams, 12-1 ASU is still in above any Big-12 team or Big-10 team, and they'll have eliminated ND themselves.

They'll be a conference champ their loss is to a pretty reasonable team, and they'll have 8 high quality wins, and they'll pass the "did they schedule a marquee opponent" test.



Utah could finish 12-1 with wins over Oregon TWICE, @ UCLA, USC, Arizona, @ Stanford, @ ASU, @ OSU and @ Michigan.

They'll be a conference champ with a bad loss but it was only by 1, and also 8 quality wins. Unclear whether they'll get credit for TRYING to schedule a marquee opponent, but beating Michigan on the road probably does give them some leverage over a Big-10 champ who will either also have an ugly loss (Ohio State < VT) or will have lost to a Pac-12 team who Utah beat twice.

Utah against 11-1 Notre Dame is a bit dicier, since ND will also have beaten three Pac-12 teams and their loss is much better than Utah's, so maybe ASU controls their destiny, ND controls their destiny if they beat ASU, and Utah controls their destiny if ND loses..

If those three teams lose, then all the 1-loss Big-12 teams probably control.

Then what is it?

Power ranking: Oregon > MSU
Head to head: Oregon > MSU
Accomplishment: Oregon >> MSU

UGA's is 100%, tho.

Would have an extra win, conf championship, wins over Auburn and West champ. Only one P5 could possibly be undefeated so how could a 12-1 UGA be less than 100%?

A when you lost ranking lol

Mississippis and FSU 100% if undefeated

UGA 99.9% if win out

Bamas 98% if win out

Oregon 95% if win out

I'm reluctant to say anyone is 100% (Oregon, Georgia, etc...) because I just don't know what will happen when the committee ends up behind closed doors.

I think there's at least a 1-2% chance that some completely obvious team, ranked #2 in both polls, one-loss conference champ, somehow gets ridiculously excluded. It's just possible enough that I can't say anyone's really 100%

I don't trust the olds.