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NCAA Rankings: Week 8 NCAA Rankings: Week 8

10-19-2014 , 06:39 PM
Prediction:

All the SEC stans assuming that 2 SEC teams will get to go are forgetting that ESPN doesn't get to pick the teams. 2 SEC teams go if there's an 11-1 SECw team and UGA wins the conference. Otherwise I think 1 loss power conference champs go above any combination that sets up a divisional rematch. That said, there may not be enough power conference 1 loss champs to fill out the bracket and certainly they take SECw#2 over Marshall or ECU or w/e
NCAA Rankings: Week 8 Quote
10-19-2014 , 06:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sly Caveat
Should this be a rule in the NFL too? You lose your last game you miss the playoffs? Just screw all the teams that play good teams in their final game?
37.5% of NFL teams make the playoffs
3.2% of NCAA teams make the playoffs

With that degree of magnitude difference, it seems reasonable to hold college teams to a higher standard.
NCAA Rankings: Week 8 Quote
10-19-2014 , 06:43 PM
Basically, you get penalized for being in the SEC

It's possible that if the two MS and two AL teams were in 4 different conferences that they would all get in

Now a max of 2 of them can get in
NCAA Rankings: Week 8 Quote
10-19-2014 , 06:51 PM
It'll be hilarious if all the playoff games are boring trainwrecks while #5 12-1 Ole Miss wrecks a good team in whatever consolation bowl they get.
NCAA Rankings: Week 8 Quote
10-19-2014 , 06:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mmbt0ne
37.5% of NFL teams make the playoffs
3.2% of NCAA teams make the playoffs

With that degree of magnitude difference, it seems reasonable to hold college teams to a higher standard.
That's not a higher standard, it's arbitrary. Why not make teams that lose in week 7 ineligible? Teams that play tough games last would get screwed for no reason, and specifically conferences without a championship game would benefit.
NCAA Rankings: Week 8 Quote
10-19-2014 , 07:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by FlyWf
Prediction:

All the SEC stans assuming that 2 SEC teams will get to go are forgetting that ESPN doesn't get to pick the teams. 2 SEC teams go if there's an 11-1 SECw team and UGA wins the conference. Otherwise I think 1 loss power conference champs go above any combination that sets up a divisional rematch. That said, there may not be enough power conference 1 loss champs to fill out the bracket and certainly they take SECw#2 over Marshall or ECU or w/e
I'm not sure if any SEC fans here are saying that the SEC will definitely get two teams into the playoffs. Some are saying the SEC should get two teams in based on merit, which is fair for now but there's still plenty of season left to play.

I'd also be surprised if ESPN would prefer Miss State or Ole Miss over several other possible teams, including Notre Dame, Ohio State, and Oregon. Some of the ESPN talking heads may even be arguing that two SEC teams should get in but that's different from whether from a ratings perspective ESPN would prefer that outcome.
NCAA Rankings: Week 8 Quote
10-19-2014 , 07:28 PM
Sorry but I just don't buy the ESPN conspiracy theory. I think every fanbase thinks ESPN hates their team. You think ESPN is doing what? Telling all their commentators (who went to B1G schools) to hype up the SEC a little extra? I see Rod G1lmore ranking Michigan State ahead of the SEC 1 loss teams in his playoff bracket every week in ESPN because you HAVE to reward them just for scheduling the Oregon game or they won't schedule games like that anymore! I guess he didn't get the memo.

Is it that hard to believe that the people in the committee are actually going to pick the teams they think are best without all of these conspiracies with the conferences and networks?
NCAA Rankings: Week 8 Quote
10-19-2014 , 07:49 PM
SEC is more likely to get three teams than some of you think.
NCAA Rankings: Week 8 Quote
10-19-2014 , 07:50 PM


Representative team is the team whose rating is closest to the division average rating.
NCAA Rankings: Week 8 Quote
10-19-2014 , 08:01 PM
If there's any team that Ole Miss will stomp, it will be LSU. It is a pretty nasty rivalry and they kept Ole Miss out of the SEC championship the last time it had a decent team which was the Manning days. LSU got upset by Ole Miss last year when LSU was better and Ole Miss was worse.

I'd set the line at Ole Miss -9
NCAA Rankings: Week 8 Quote
10-19-2014 , 08:02 PM
i'm running a sim right now so i can't check but i think my model has ole miss -2something
NCAA Rankings: Week 8 Quote
10-19-2014 , 08:24 PM
Not to mention Ole Miss is 10-0 ATS on the road against LSU
NCAA Rankings: Week 8 Quote
10-19-2014 , 08:27 PM
Lose to Indiana at home
7th in merit rankings. I don't understand how a model spits that out unless it's biased (Ie florida isn't terrible, despite doing nothing on offense vs them).

Notre Dame is all but a lock to get in with one loss. Most of the one loss teams all still play each other and the majority of people are #sort by record (outside of complete LOL like marshall schedule) and a few more things

1) old people are still picking the 4 teams, there's no computers, no math oriented 2p2 people, it's old people (some who have major affiliations with specific schools or conferences!) and old people love Notre Dame (last nights game was ridic ratings).

2) the sheet they get rating teams only gives out such amazing facts like record vs top 25 and other generic nonsense (yes, beating a 25th place team = top 5 team). Oh and they can't take margin of victory into account. 1 point win = 100 point win. 1 point loss in tough game = 100 point blowout loss.

3) Michigan State at this time last year should've just this week gotten ranked in the top 25. There's plenty of time to make the playoffs. (auburn wasn't in the top 15 I believe as well). Teams will lose. Too much panicking over a loss or predicting as if teams will win out, most of the time the majority will lose.

4) did I mention yet how lol this sheet they get is?
The stats they get are yardage based, they get records separated by teams that won .500 of games and didn't, there's no way based on it to determine strength of schedule other than your own biases.

5) Most likely 3 teams will be obvious and the 4th will be a cluster****.

6) The B1G is very likely in with a one loss team. It's just very unlikely they're not taking a one loss from a major conf over a two no matter how much they'd actually lose by h2h. The SEC West is 4 of the top 5 mostly because they still have to go through themselves more than a couple games. Once they lose they will get dropped (fwiw I probably wouldn't drop the loser at all other than switching spots but the pollsters will, they always do). (sparty is ahead of oregon in the polls despite both having one loss, losing early is always the best time b/c then you can say crap like "but we're peaking now" or w/e)

I have doubts there will be more than 4 one loss teams consideration for the playoffs.

Florida State is by far the most likely to make it now (think Notre Dame is #2 despite some possibly losable games even tho they don't play any teams that aren't that good left...); I don't see the defending champs not making it in with one loss no matter what happens elsewhere and that remaining schedule is loltastic bad.

There won't be a TV conspiracy, this committee won't care whatsoever about that but I don't think they're going to end up taking more than 2 SEC West teams in the end. At that point it'll be down to W's and L's like the AP and coaches poll almost always are. They kept ******** with the computers in the BCS every time the computers told them their polls were wrong so I kinda expect the top 4 to be whoever the top 4 in the polls are.
NCAA Rankings: Week 8 Quote
10-19-2014 , 08:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pwnsall
SEC is more likely to get three teams than some of you think.
Unless it's like 2007 and almost everyone loses 2 games this just isn't going to happen. Too many SEC teams are going to have 2+ losses on their profile.
NCAA Rankings: Week 8 Quote
10-19-2014 , 09:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by goofball


Representative team is the team whose rating is closest to the division average rating.
You don't have Big 12 listed but you have Oklahoma as representative team from SECw
NCAA Rankings: Week 8 Quote
10-19-2014 , 09:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sly Caveat
That's not a higher standard, it's arbitrary. Why not make teams that lose in week 7 ineligible? Teams that play tough games last would get screwed for no reason, and specifically conferences without a championship game would benefit.
Yes, at the end of the day any way used to rank teams will be arbitrary.

Late season losses have always been a bigger problem for teams than early season losses whether in this playoff system or the previous way of doing things. Same thing with who gets the at-large bids in for NCAAB.

Teams adjust and evolve over the course of the season they aren't one steady body going through 12 simulations. Your most recent performance should and is going to weigh more heavily on rankings.
NCAA Rankings: Week 8 Quote
10-19-2014 , 09:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2005
You don't have Big 12 listed but you have Oklahoma as representative team from SECw
lol

you don't understand the chart, but if that's how you read it, how is Oklahoma not in the SECw the only one you picked out? hahahaha
NCAA Rankings: Week 8 Quote
10-19-2014 , 09:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2005
You don't have Big 12 listed but you have Oklahoma as representative team from SECw
big 12 doesn't have divisions. sheesh.
NCAA Rankings: Week 8 Quote
10-19-2014 , 09:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SandmanNess
If there's any team that Ole Miss will stomp, it will be LSU. It is a pretty nasty rivalry and they kept Ole Miss out of the SEC championship the last time it had a decent team which was the Manning days. LSU got upset by Ole Miss last year when LSU was better and Ole Miss was worse.

I'd set the line at Ole Miss -9
Please give me LSU +9.

Pinny has it at OM -3 -107 right now.
NCAA Rankings: Week 8 Quote
10-19-2014 , 09:47 PM
Still hoping I can get lsu +21
NCAA Rankings: Week 8 Quote
10-19-2014 , 10:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by goofball
Still hoping I can get lsu +21
Yall are looking down the wrong road. Put your money on Ole Miss!


(and the under)
NCAA Rankings: Week 8 Quote
10-19-2014 , 10:41 PM
somehow i didn't realize those were all games this week and just thought he was asking about theoretical games
NCAA Rankings: Week 8 Quote
10-19-2014 , 10:43 PM
sparty -16.5 home against michigan

i'm guessing they've never been that big a favorite anytime lines have existed
NCAA Rankings: Week 8 Quote
10-19-2014 , 11:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by goofball


Representative team is the team whose rating is closest to the division average rating.
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2005
You don't have Big 12 listed but you have Oklahoma as representative team from SECw
As presented, it's a bit confusing, and it took me a minute to figure out (at first I thought it was a mistake, like 2005 did), but my understanding is that the listed "representative team" is just the team (anyone in the country) rated most similarly to the division average.

So the "average SEC West team" has the equivalent strength of Oklahoma. "Representative" teams don't have to be (and usually won't be) from the division they're representing.
NCAA Rankings: Week 8 Quote
10-19-2014 , 11:17 PM
Chart would have been elite if the SEC West had "Oakland Raiders" listed as their representative team.
NCAA Rankings: Week 8 Quote

      
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