It's just a problem with computers. Sagarin runs into the same issue. Usually it's lol over rating the PAC massively which is again true this season but this year the computers are also over rating the non-mega elite SEC teams.

Missouri 7 Kansas State 29. Ok.

Whoops yeah. K State winning on the road at Oklahoma is a top 5 achievement this season by itself. Losing a close one to Auburn is still a loss but it was impressive, too.

Model still loves Stanford

They gotta lose 4-5 games to get out of top 20 it seems

What has Mizzou achieved?

Beat USCe and UF on the road is worth #7? The hell.

look at Nebraska breaking into the top 25 predictive! Can't wait to lose to Wisconsin.

How's this for a cluster CFP scenario (totally random). Note I added what the model's rank of each team would be

Without looking (if they're up) where would we set the lines on:

Ole Miss at LSU
USC at Utah
WVU at OkSt
OSUw at Stanford
Oregon at Cal

Ole Miss by more than whatever the computers, Vegas, and 2p2 says...

set a line!

Ole Miss 27, Lsu 6

OM -3.5

So ole miss -21?

excellent

Oregon/Cal 87.5

I think LSU at home will surprise against Ole Miss and may even win

Miss -4.5
USC -1
OSU -3.5
Stanford -7
Oregon -19.5

You aren't alone. And it's possible you are right, but I wouldn't bet on it.
Bo hasn't thrown a pic in a month. Ole Miss has not been beating themselves with penalties or special teams gaffs. And the defense is getting nastier every game.

I decided to play around on excel with some of Sagarin's stats to come up with something predictive. Before you start flaming, I am just messing around. I know there are actuaries, statisticians, etc on this site that are doing good work. I have no stats background and this is just for lols...

I ranked top 25 plus Marshall. Ratings in brackets involve SOS, quality of opponents for each teams 3 best wins, and quality of opponent in any losses. Lower the total the higher the rating.

I will use Ohio State for example:

SOS = 72

OSUs three best wins (highest ranking in predictor):
Maryland (33 in sagarin predictor)
Cincy (65 in sagarin predictor)
Rutgers (80 in sagarin predictor)

Plus I added the predictor of the team OSU lost to
Virginia Tech = 31 in Sagarin Predictor

total = 281

NOTE: for teams with two losses I doubled the predictor amount for their second worse loss, and then added that to the first loss. For the third loss I tripled it.

So, I know the methodology sucks bad for lots of reasons. It is a incestuous circle of sagarin data, no YPP, no MOv, no way to treat losses properly, and on and on.

It overrates the SEC, but it does treat the Pac12 ok. It also does a better job than the polls do on showing how bad the Big10 really is.

A&M is way off, but I like where FSU and ND end up.


1. Mississippi State 6-0 (50)
2. Ole Miss 7-0 (61)
3. Auburn 5-1 (61)
4. Alabama 6-1 (74)
5. FSU 7-0 (104)
6. Georgia 6-1 (111)
7. Oregon 6-1 (125)
8. TCU 5-1 (129)
9. West Virginia 5-2 (143)
10. LSU 6-2 (149)
11. Oklahoma 5-2 (150)
12. Texas A and M (176)
13. Arizona State (180)
14. Clemson 5-2 (187)
15. Baylor 6-1 (189)
16. Kansas State 5-1 (191)
17. UCLA 5-2 (194)
18. Notre Dame 6-1 (195)
19. Arizona 5-1 (195)
20. USC 5-2 (242)
21. Michigan State 6-1 (248)
22. Utah 5-1 (249)
23. Nebraska 6-1 (252)
24. Ohio State 5-1 (281)
25. Oklahoma State 5-2 (329)
26. Marshall 7-0 (455)

Note: If I dug a little deeper then Ohio State and Oklahoma State might even get bumped from top 25.

Except for TAAM and LSU (and maybe West Virginia) It cant be that much worse than the AP poll.

Mariota O/U 900 total yards.

Ole Miss -6, tot 46
WVU -3, tot 70
Oregon -14.5 tot 75

No take on the others. I am "setting", not "trying to guess what it will come out as".

My general feeling is that no one should be able to lose their last game on the way into the playoff. Just consider that week before an extension of the playoff system, and it clears up the Auburn/Bama and Ole Miss/Miss St debates.

So in the scenario you laid out, I would put 11-1 Bama in over 12-1 Ole Miss.

ole miss -1

I realize this is a super low likelihood scenario, but say we have that situation with unbeaten FSU, one loss OSU, and no other significant contenders.

I would bet the playoff seedings would be
1. FSU
2. UGA
3. Bama
4. Ohio State

with Ole Miss getting left out.

Should this be a rule in the NFL too? You lose your last game you miss the playoffs? Just screw all the teams that play good teams in their final game?