Zona upseting Oregon definitely meant way less than otherwise

Same with Ole miss over Bama

by the way I'm pretty sure FEI tries to incorporate tons of these types of things if you prefer their rankings

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fei

actually that is based on drives, this is play based and actually looks somewhat similar to the ypp model

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa

Yeah, FEI incorporates a lot of those factors, but what I personally dislike about it is that it is drive based which creates similar limits on sample size to using score of games. It's cool that they split out offensive rankings, defensive rankings, and special teams rankings, but I just fundamentally disagree with using drives, rather than plays, as the underlying basis.

FEI is the first place I turn to when looking for something to compare the YPP rankings with, though.

By the way, FEI ranks five Pac-12 teams in the top nine...

This year is way better than past years. More teams are in the discussion and so there's tons more games that actually matter. Plus a system where the debate moves from who is the #2 team to who is the #4 team is obviously superior.

There's a dozen teams or more that know they are 90%+ in the playoff if they win out. That was simply not the case under the old system where right now it would be FSU and a one loss or undefeated SEC team and everyone else in the country praying FSU lost because the SEC was almost certain to get a team in leaving just one spot open.

yes, that is why i was pointing nichp to those rankings!

That's just flat out not true. You said Sagarin was biased in favor of Pac-12 because the Pac crushed so hard in the OOC. You were right. When you exaggerate by 300% and make bombastic and hyperbolic statements that are flat out incorrect, it makes you look like you don't know what you're talking about.

Oregon was like an 8-9 point favorite according to Sagarin over Auburn when the game became set and Auburn opened -3. So yeah, 7-10+ points was completely accurate and every PAC team was over rated compared to the actual betting lines.

The final Sagarin ranking after all the games had Stanford as the #1 team I think with Bama #2 at like 3-4 points worse. Yet if Bama were to play Stanford they would have been at least 10 pt favs so Stanford was off by nearly 2 TD's.

Closed at Oregon -1 tho

That's still in the 7-10 point range like I said.

i thought it closed oregon favored by almost 3

i assume someone will look it up

The week before the game got set there was prop lines up...

Oregon -3 vs Auburn
Auburn -3.5 vs TCU
Oregon -6.5 vs TCU

Then Auburn smashed USCe in the SEC title game and the game line opened Auburn -3. The Sagarin ranking that week had it Oregon -7 or -8.

Average discrepancy between Sagarin ranking and Vegas ranking for Pac-12 teams was 3.1 points, not 7-10. This is an actual number that you can compute. Also, the teams that were least overrated by Vegas were actually the ones NOT playing in bowls, so it seems reasonable but not certain that the actual inflation was closer to 1.5 or 2 points than 3.

Bama would not have been 10 point favorites over Stanford. If you can find me a single game after Week-12 where the Sagarin line differs from the Vegas line by 14 points barring major injuries/sanctions/firings/etc (and even then) IN THE ENTIRE HISTORY OF FOOTBALL I'd be impressed.

I don't know what else to say. I know way, way more about this stuff than you and have hard numbers and evidence. You're just flat out wrong.

Everybody including me acknowledged that Oregon was overrated by Sagarin coming in to the game. You asserted clearly that the entire Pac conference was overrated by 7-10 points which is just stupid.

Your only argument so far is that ONE Pac team was overrated by ALMOST as much as you claim the ENTIRE conference was.

Now I have a name for that picture in the dictionary under the 'Homer' entry.

Well, it is nice that he changed it from 7-10 for every team to it happened for one team, therefore, it means all the teams.

b

Okay, so Oregon is 7-10 points over rated by Sagarin. Glad we got some admission on that finally because there sure wasn't any of that going on in 2010 as GB and the other PAC homers were riding Sagarin as the gospel and proclaiming the PAC as the best conference.

Here's Oregon's results vs the PAC that year and the expected difference by Sagarin.

Oregon (97.28) @ ASU (84.97+2.85=87.82) 42-31 so Oregon met expectations
Oregon (97.28 +2.85=100.13) vs Stanford (100.91) 52-31 so Oregon out performed by 21
Oregon (97.28) @ WSU (66.19+2.85=69.04) 43-23 so Oregon underperformed by 8
Oregon (97.28+2.85=100.13) vs UCLA (70.42) 60-13 so Oregon out performed by 17
Oregon (97.28) @ USC (82.74+2.85=85.59) 53-32 so Oregon out performed by 9
Oregon (97.28+2.85=100.13) vs Washington (77.98) 53-16 so Oregon out performed by 15
Oregon (97.28) @ Cal (81.16+2.85=84.01) 15-13 so Oregon under performed by 11
Oregon (97.28+2.85=100.13) vs Arizona (80.78) 48-29 so Oregon met expectations
Oregon (97.28) @ Oregon St (80.96+2.85=83.81) 37-20 so Oregon out performed by 3

Oregon in 9 PAC games out performed expectations by a cumulative 46 points or 5 points a game on average while going 5-2-2 against the Sagarin spread. But you guys already admitted Oregon was over rated yet they smashed the rest of the PAC? The rest of the PAC was more over rated than Oregon because if you reduce Oregon's rating by 8 then their cumulative over performance would be 118 points over 9 PAC games and their record ATS would be 7-1-1 with their one loss being by 3 points and a ton of blow outs.

If those teams were so good how come they couldn't give Oregon a game despite Oregon being 7-10 points over rated as admitted? The answer of course is Sagarin was even worse on the rest of the PAC which was obvious to anyone watching the dreadful football being played in that conference.

the obvious answer is #2 Chip

Your ability to try to find nonsensical backdoor proofs when something is so obviously wrong is incredible.

Your contention: In 2010, Vegas rated Pac teams 7-10 points worse than Sagarin.

Seemingly easy solution: Compare Vegas lines with Sagarin lines

Seemingly obvious answer: There is an average difference of 3.1 points.

Your nonsensical counter argument: Well, see above. And then just for good measure, throw out further things that aren't true to make other people seem unreasonable, like":

When it's easy to dig up stuff like:

(from 2010)

ugh what am I doing with my life.

I mean it's so obvious to literally everyone that you're wrong, and even SEC homers are laughing at you. Your arguments are could very easily be excerpts from like a "logical reasoning for 8th graders" book as examples of logical fallacy, strawman arguments, etc.

You bring zero information, zero facts and zero worthwhile arguments to bear, so it's clear nobody here is going to learn anything from you, and yet you also bring zero willingness to even consider the idea that other people who are comprehensively more educated about the subject matter in every conceivable way might be right and you might be wrong.

Yet somehow I'm still sitting here on a Wednesday night banging my head against a keyboard trying to make a blind man see. I need to make some changes in my life, this is ****ing depressing.


See you guys on Friday, hopefully by joining in on a GG PAC-12 PLAYOFF HOPES LOLOREGON posting frenzy

Can we call a time out on old PAC/SEC debates. None of us having any fun with this anymore.

Cut the drama and propose a bet on Sagarin -3.1 for the rest of the PAC games.

Well I'm glad we can all agree the pile of 7-6, 6-6, and worse PAC teams weren't top 30 once they are adjusted down from their lol Sagarin rankings and Oregon had at most two games before the title game against top 30 teams because even a 3 pt adjustment knocks everyone but Stanford and ASU out.

I actually want the PAC and Big12 champs in the playoff unless they've got more than two losses because they are by far the best conferences after the SEC. SEC, PAC, FSU, and Big12 champs would be an elite way to kick off the playoff era. Even better would be a whining ND and BigTen champ just missing to kickstart the clamor for expansion.

I wish logic was taught in 8th grade

The world would be a better place

How about instead of debating pac/sec we do:

-Tipping
-Gun Control
-Gold Standard
-AQ vs. JJ
-Amanda Knox

That's called "higher education" in SEC country.

Good lord. Just stop. It's not funny anymore.