I got FL beating FSU

Don't underestimate those rivalry games


Someone's gotta end their season early so Winston can drop out and avoid the hearing

Hopefully the cops will stop letting them get away with hit and runs when they are no longer in the playoffs

IIRC, the cops let Winston get away with rape when he was redshirting, so don't get your hopes up.

Hypothetical question for the college football wizards....

If Oregon/FSU/Miss St/OSU/TCU/Baylor win out (highly unlikely I know) and Bama lose in the SEC Championship game, who gets in? Would it be Oregon/FSU/OSU/TCU?

Miss St would be in

Yeah, I don't see the committee leaving out the SEC entirely when Miss St's only loss would be by 5 on the road to the best 2-loss team in CFB.

In that scenario, 2-loss Bama and 2-loss Georgia would actually have better resumes than 1-loss OSU, but OSU still gets the invite.

beau, in that case

FSU is a lock

Oregon and TCU are near locks.

Last spot is jostling between OSU, Baylor, MSST and potentially UGA (if 2-loss UGA is the SEC champ). I don't think Bama has a shot even though they're #1 right now. Just imo the committee isn't putting in a 2 loss team that doesn't reach their conference championship.

Every team in that four has a strike against them.

OSU is the weakest team pretty clearly, but they're a 1-loss power conference champ (and not shared).

Baylor already has a team from their conference in the playoff. But they did beat that team.

MSST didn't win their conference. But they're currently the highest ranked of these four contenders so someone has to jump them.

UGA has 2 losses. But they won the CLEAR best conference in the country and are clearly top-4 from a power perspective (UGA is #3 sagarin right now, and in this scenario adds wins against GT and Bama, in which case they are probably #1 sagarin).

Last pick depends on committee bias - pure power (UGA), conference champ + sort by loss (OSU), inertia (nobody will jump MSST unless they lose), etc.

It would be the most Georgia moment ever for UGA to

* win the SEC
* be the #1 sagarin team (and basically every computer)
* still not make the playoffs

Inertia is less of a thing so much as that MSU would have only one extremely good loss on the road

After all the committee supposedly *supposedly* starts from scratch each week

Oh god tell me you aren't one of those UGA fans that thought we should've been pit against tOSU in 2007 instead of LSU.

In that scenario

FSU and Oregon are 100% locks.

I got Baylor and Miss St as the other two. Danny uses Sagarin a couple times but fails to mention that Sagarin has Baylor 3 pts higher than TCU already.

I got 11-1 Baylor finishing ahead of 11-1 TCU. Their schedule should close stronger with KState vs Texas.

Miss St should have the best win remaining @Ole Miss of the 4 in contention for those two spots. And they are already ahead.

Just a warning, but I might really really AIDS this thread up starting in about 7 hours.

Also here is my theory on significance of conference championships that I believe the committee will strongly lean towards:

It will be used mostly as a tie-breaker for those within the same conference. It would be very hard to put one team in over another from same conference that won it. ESPECIALLY if they end up with the same number of losses. But I don't really think it'll be used to separate teams from different conferences.

If tOSU ends 12-1 and Miss St 11-1, I don't really see that tOSU wins their conference as being that much of a positive because you are comparing completely different circumstances, schedules, opponents, etc.

O/U on # of times you curse Anthony Boone's name same as game total.

FSU and Oregon are locks.

Ohio State is drawing dead.

In your scenario, I'm assuming UGA wins out as well?

I think it'd be Baylor and UGA, but it could easily be Baylor and Mississippi State as well

Weirdly a lot of it depends on how Minnesota finishes. If they get pounded into the turf as expected, then that differentiator becomes less relevant and Baylor > TCU. But if they upset Nebraska or Wisconsin to finish 8-4 (or possibly even *both* to win the division) then TCU gets the nod.

He is so bad. I just want Sirk freed. We won in spite of Boone all season (he actually regressed from last year, but we beat VA Tech in spite of his terrible 4 int performance there too last year), but now that the season is just left with us trying to win the Coastal its time to move on.

I got Oregon and FSU as stone cold locks. I take Georgia assuming they won out. Last pick is close and depends a lot on how those wins were. I think Ohio State would get it in that case, with TCU being the next most likely, followed by Miss State. Probably put it at 40-30-25, with Baylor getting the remainder.

I'm speculating what WILL happen, not what should. and the committee has TCU ahead of Baylor and that doesn't seem like it will change.

Not sure where TCU is a near lock in that scenario. Big 12 has not been good this year with some absolute dog **** teams (Oklahoma underrated tho). Georgia 100% deserves it over TCU over Baylor, and I'd be shocked if Georgia wins out while winning the SEC and doesn't make it. Missouri is the only one I figure that might not.

When you say Ohio State weakest - do you mean from resume or power perspective or both? Oddsmakers would certainly disagree with the latter, but resume is certainly debatable.

Committee said 4-7 are all really close, Baylor's schedule is tougher the rest of the way. Committee is also not weighing conference championships now, so that's something that could alter a really close call. If the Minnesota game for TCU drops in importance, that helps Baylor as well, and Minnesota is almost surely going to lose 1 more, and probably 2 by double digits. That makes TCU's edge over Baylor drop a lot. Add in Baylors H2H win, that helps Baylor.

The Big XII has been good.

Missouri has no equity.

Next.

If Minny goes 1-1 from here on out that probably HELPS TCU not hurts. But I agree that they prob go 0-2.

I bet it will. Baylor's resume should narrow the current gap enough that H2H puts them over the top.

if ksu wins their next two and baylor beats them solidly i think they pass tcu and wouldnt have an issue with it. tcu has looked quite sketchy their last two road games vs not great teams

i could be wrong about tcu/baylor. I thought about it for around 30 seconds or so, so it wasn't the most fully formed opinion.

It will be interesting to see how 'sticky' the rankings are when nobody is losing.