it's really hard to say whether nader is even good or bad bc he wasn't even playing a real role for northern ill. he was stuck on a horrible team and had the green light to take w/e shot he wanted. they were the 5th worst offense that season according to kenpom, so he was obv victim to bad teammates/coaching.

guessing hoiberg feels that once you weed out all of the crappy shots that there's a decent player underneath it all. i'm interested to see how it pans out, based on the leap kane took i wouldn't be surprised if nader became useful.

that said i obviously agree that lee is better and comes ahead of nader on the depth chart if he chooses the cyclones. guessing they'd give niang, hogue, and lee 28-30 mpg a pop and let nader + mckay battle it out for the 30-36 bench mpg.

so where do people think duke would be ranked if jabari + hood go pro?

we graduate: thornton (yes!), hairston (double yes!), and dawkins (bittersweet imo)

key players returning: amile, sheed, cook

returning players that could see a bigger role: plumlee, jones, semi

freshmen: okafor, jones, winslow, allen

so we basically have our 3 players who are proven good that have upside to take leaps forward, plus a boatload of freshman/sophomore talent that could be anything. we do have the hype of the #1 recruiting class but after such a limpdick finish to the season + losing so many players i don't think we'd be ranked #1. i'm thinking we'll be ranked like 5th-8thish

i'm gonna go out on a limb and make some predictions for the top freshman this year based on thin thin slice.

i think jahlil okafor will be a beast offensively and on the glass. his defense could go either way but he should be an upgrade over jabari based sheerly on size.

tyus jones sounds friggin awesome. i think i'm going to like him a lot. hard to be good as a freshman PG but he sounds like he has a shot and should eventually become something. seems sorta marcus paige-ish.

emmanuel mudiay sounds like he has a ton of scrub equity. lol larry brown.

cliff alexander sounds fairly thomas robinson-ish. not sure if he'll necessarily be good but sounds like he should at least be something.

myles turner seems weird. there's a lot to like but sounds fairly uncoordinated. he'll probably be pretty good at the college level based on tools alone, might be kind of a goof on offense though.

rashad vaughn seems super lol. chucker ghana chuck. do not want.

stanley johnson sounds like he'll step in and do the same stuff as aaron gordon and RHJ. play good defense, finish in transition, and chuck bricks on offense.

justin jackson prob will be good on offense and bad on defense.

kelly oubre could easily be a scrub. sounds like he has little in the way of basketball skill.

karl towns could be anything. he could even be a boat. prob has more upside than most since he's huge + skilled but who knows how it'll work out.

DX profile makes trey lyles sound like a sure thing offensively but his FIBA u19 stats for team Canada are pretty meh...averaged 20 + 10 but just a 41.2% eFG and 5 assists vs 16 TOV's. ennis was much more efficient in a similar volume role. he's got a little bit of bust risk since he doesn't seem to bring much defensively. could just be a bad sample at FIBA though, he only played 7 games.

justise winslow should be pretty solid. i think coach K really killed this recruiting class.

kevon looney intrigues me. sounds like my type of player.

that's all i got for now...will be fun to bump this and see how this looks a year from now

trey lyles isn't much of an athlete, very skilled though. Blackmon going to rain 3s from all over the place.

blackmon actually sounds pretty sweet and could deserve to be in the top 10 but i just assume that crean will bungle the situation and under-utilize his talent.

I really think that out of all of coach K's gets in the past few years and the coming year (Kyrie, lol Austin Rivers, Jabari, Tyus, Okafor, etc.) the biggest one is going to be

Blackmon is a boss. Him/Yogi gonna be pretty damn elite backcourt

Romelo Trimble confirmed going to be elite

i'm just going to post the ESPN recruiting writeup on trimble because i can't lol at this grammar enough:

39% usage is incredible

With Parker back you're #1 ldo.

Without him I'd guess top 5-6 depending on who leaves/comes back for teams around the country.

Lyles I sadly don't really know much about. But from what I've seen of Towns, you are basically dead on. He could be anything between Fab Melo and Embiid.

what are we legitimately looking at with these guys? okafor is one and done, jones and winslow are 2 years, allen is 3-4?

Allen is a 4-5 year guy for sure. He is a white shooting guard. Is there even one of those starting in the NBA? No idea how long Tyus and Justice will stay, the latter will probably depend a lot on how much and how well he plays. I don't see him emerging as a lottery guy in the next 2 years.

I'm wondering what UK's PG situation is gonna look like next year. Both of the Harrisons are up to first-rounders in 2015 per DX, but I could really see them declaring this year and getting picked late first round. It feels like there's a good chance that showing "improvement", real or not, is enough to get them back there given their pedigree coming into college. And, if they go, it'll only be the 5'9 freshman Ulis (in the 28 overall range from ESPN/Scout/Rivals) at the position.

i think justise might get more lotto looks than tyus unless tyus is just insanely good. tyus is a tiny fragile person and justise is all chiseled and athletic and stuff.

i dunno...i mean wayne selden is staying and he hadn't dropped on the boards nearly as much as they had. 5 star prospects get so much leeway before ESPN/DX drop them, and people instantly soured on the harrisons. they probably need a couple more big games before restoring their stock to 1st round status.

if they do leave i dunno, seems like UK is in rough shape. ulis/hawkins ftw! maybe they can snag a last minute transfer. assuming young/randle/wcs all jump ship, what does that leave UK with

harrison/ulis
harrison/hawkins
booker/poythress
lyle/lee
dakari/towns

did i miss anybody? and is marcus lee ever going to be allowed to play?

dunno about Selden personally, but just based on third-hand and interpretive bull**** about the Harrisons seems like they'll very much err on the side of leaving if possible (which, yeah, it might not be)

wrt Lee, no idea, UK apparently is recruiting a pretty sick set of bigs for '15 too. there were transfer rumors in December which his camp denied pretty strongly, but he's gotta do something at some point. he could sneak 10-15 mpg in that big rotation, which wouldn't be bad, esp since how many minutes is Dakari really going to be able to play? but imagine him transferring after 14-15 is the median outcome.

yeah i suppose it could happen that they will leave if they feel they can get drafted at all. they certainly will have 2nd round equity if they look good in a loss to lville

that would leave UK in an interesting disposition to be certain. i'd have to imagine that cal finds a transfer to step in and eat minutes.

Wisconsin could potentially return everyone from this elite 8 team except Ben Brust. I doubt Kaminsky goes pro(lol) but could be wrong I guess. Trae Jackson and Gasser are both JRs. Dekker might come back. Koenig and Hayes are freshmen.

Im assuming they will be preseason #1 if everyone returns.

assuming jabari leaves, it's def possible. teams in the running

arizona (if only gordon leaves)
kentucky
wisconsin
virginia
UCLA (if kyle stays but even then prob not)

badgers gonna be real good next year if dekker and frank the tank come back. i'd say dekker is more liable to leave since he already has 1st round hype and doesn't have to overcome facial deficiencies in proving his NBA mettle.

anderson already said he's gone

so this thon maker kid looks pretty solid

LaVine gone. Michigan could be #1 too if Stauskas, GR3, McGary somehow came back but I would expect a couple to be gone.

Funny. I was just reading about him. Virginia fans are excited that we're in the running for a player like him.