Quote:
Originally Posted by charder30
yall are haters, Murray State is legit
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Based on what? And define legit.
If you mean a tournament team that could win a game or two in the tourney with the right matchups and hot shooting, then ok sure they're legit. But that is pretty much every top 70 kenpom team imo. Theyre 23-0, but 3 of those wins are vs teams that arent even Div 1 A, so we'll make that 20-0. Of those 20 wins, 15 were vs teams without a winning record, or in other words 18 of those "23" wins were vs teams with a losing/500 record or not div 1.
Btw here are those 5 teams with winning records they beat:
neutral San Francisco by 3 points
neutral Souther miss by 9 points
vs Dayton by 17 points
@ Memphis by 4 points
vs Tenn Tech by 8 points
Ive seen 2 or 3 of their games in their entirety, which is a smallolsamplesize but nothing substantial stood out eye test wise that makes me think their #s are off. They dont have any 1st rd NBA prospects. The only real argument in their favor of being an actual top 15 team is if we act like margin of victory doesnt matter, and I think most everyone here agrees that its better to use MOV than completely remove it from the equation.
murray state national rankings below
65 in kenpom overall ranking
63 Off Adj Eff at 107.7
83 Def Adj Eff at 95.3
46 in Sagarin Rating
60 in Sagarin Predictor
4 in Sagarin ELOCHESS (no Margin of Victory component)
43 LRMC (Bayesian)
10 LRMC (no Margin of Victory component)
39 RPI
Even if this team ends up finishing unbeaten in the reg season and wins their conf tournament they have no business being seeded on the 1, 2, 3, or 4 lines unless they just start destroying teams in the games they have left. And realistically, they should be thrilled with a 5 or 6 seed bc thats really generous.
All this said, it still wont be some crazy shock if a team that has as many guys shoot the 3 at a high percentage like Murray State gets hot and luckboxes into the Sw16 (definitely the right strategy for a smaller not elite talent school), but there is no way this team is a favorite to make it to the second weekend.