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 View Poll Results: Who ya got? Spurs in 4 8 5.41% Spurs in 5 26 17.57% Spurs in 6 32 21.62% Spurs in 7 38 25.68% OKC in 4 2 1.35% OKC in 5 0 0% OKC in 6 12 8.11% OKC in 7 22 14.86% lolperk 5 3.38% lolbrooks 3 2.03% Voters: 148. You may not vote on this poll

05-24-2012, 07:40 PM   #91
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Re: NBA WCF: SPURS-OKC

Quote:
 Originally Posted by AngerPush That's actually not how math works. It certainly is possible for OKC in 7 to be more likely than OKC in 6. Also, you are assuming that every game has the same exact expectancy and is then adjusted by who's home.
By my math:
Do a 60/40 binomial for the home team.
for a 5 game series, only 5 ways for lower seed team to win series in 4 or 5 games:
WWLW
WWLLWW
WLWW
WLWLW
WLLWW

for 2-2-1 format, assign a probability to win @ home of .6
so the first example WWLW would be: (.4)(.4)(.4)(.6), b/c it is only 40% to win the 1st two games (away), 40% to lose at home (game 3), and 60% to win game 4 @ home.

Do this for all the combos and sum it up, what you would get for a 5 game series is:

probability for lower seed to win series in 4: .1248
probability for lower seed to win series in 5: .0563

If the high seed is better, it would skew it even more in favor of them obv. But this is all dumb, considering many variable cannot be calculated into this like momentum, fatigue, injruies, coaching strategies, bad reffing, ect..

05-24-2012, 08:15 PM   #92
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Re: NBA WCF: SPURS-OKC

Quote:
 Originally Posted by gusmahler What does he mean by the games they tanked? Why would they tank games?
Cuz thats what good teams do in the NBA reg season, second game of a back to back on the road always a tank job for a good team

 05-24-2012, 08:43 PM #93 stranger     Join Date: May 2012 Location: Canada Posts: 10 Re: NBA WCF: SPURS-OKC OKC has the star power but Spurs have great teamwork and great role player's. I think Russel westbrook's selfishness will show this series, dude has tunnel vision. Spurs in 6
05-24-2012, 11:12 PM   #94

Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 741
Re: NBA WCF: SPURS-OKC

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Ray Horton Playing zone against OKC is suicide. Leonard and Manu prob gonna both get shots at KD.
Whoever guards Ibaka, Perk, Collision, and to a lesser extent RWB will effectively be zoning the paint whenever not involved in a PnR.

Spurs probably try to emulate Memphis last year when Tony Allen and Battier basically faceguarded KD trying to deny him the ball. Probably won't be too effective, but maybe KD gets fatigued vs a rotating cast of fresh Spur wings.

Expect the Spurs to use a ton of PnR involving Parker and whoever Perk is guarding. Parker should get whatever he wants vs RWB and Perk's onball PnR defense.

A lot of KD @ 4 is OKC's best shot, but lolbrooks.

05-25-2012, 12:50 AM   #95
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Re: NBA WCF: SPURS-OKC

Quote:
 Originally Posted by caseycjc Spurs in 7 gives time for Bosh to make it back and a great final.
I thought the finals started on the same day no matter how the previous series ended...?

05-25-2012, 03:39 AM   #96
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Re: NBA WCF: SPURS-OKC

Quote:
 Originally Posted by john voight By my math: Do a 60/40 binomial for the home team. for a 5 game series, only 5 ways for lower seed team to win series in 4 or 5 games: WWLW WWLLWW WLWW WLWLW WLLWW for 2-2-1 format, assign a probability to win @ home of .6 so the first example WWLW would be: (.4)(.4)(.4)(.6), b/c it is only 40% to win the 1st two games (away), 40% to lose at home (game 3), and 60% to win game 4 @ home. Do this for all the combos and sum it up, what you would get for a 5 game series is: probability for lower seed to win series in 4: .1248 probability for lower seed to win series in 5: .0563 If the high seed is better, it would skew it even more in favor of them obv. But this is all dumb, considering many variable cannot be calculated into this like momentum, fatigue, injruies, coaching strategies, bad reffing, ect..

05-25-2012, 08:54 AM   #97
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Re: NBA WCF: SPURS-OKC

Quote:
 Originally Posted by john voight By my math: Do a 60/40 binomial for the home team. for a 5 game series, only 5 ways for lower seed team to win series in 4 or 5 games: WWLW WWLLWW WLWW WLWLW WLLWW for 2-2-1 format, assign a probability to win @ home of .6 so the first example WWLW would be: (.4)(.4)(.4)(.6), b/c it is only 40% to win the 1st two games (away), 40% to lose at home (game 3), and 60% to win game 4 @ home. Do this for all the combos and sum it up, what you would get for a 5 game series is: probability for lower seed to win series in 4: .1248 probability for lower seed to win series in 5: .0563 If the high seed is better, it would skew it even more in favor of them obv. But this is all dumb, considering many variable cannot be calculated into this like momentum, fatigue, injruies, coaching strategies, bad reffing, ect..
Why are you telling us about 5 game series? Every round of the NBA playoffs is best of 7.

Also, there are more than 5 possibilities in your example. It appears in your 2nd one, you added an extra "W" at the end. I'll assume you meant "WWLLW" here. The other possibilities include:

LLWWW
LWWW
LWWLW
LWLWW

Your post is extremely strange and goes to show just how hard most statistical concepts are for average people.

05-25-2012, 10:02 AM   #98
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Re: NBA WCF: SPURS-OKC

Quote:
 Originally Posted by AngerPush It certainly is possible for OKC in 7 to be more likely than OKC in 6.
I doubt this is true given how valuable HCA is in the NBA

 05-25-2012, 11:18 AM #99 Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: Creepin' Posts: 23,236 Re: NBA WCF: SPURS-OKC To win the series, the Thunder have to win at least one road game. What makes game 7 any more or less likely than game 5 or game 2?
05-25-2012, 01:27 PM   #100
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Re: NBA WCF: SPURS-OKC

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Bank Lol at people who voted OKC in 7 (CheckDaQuads, derwipok, Eltbus, gusmahler, maulaga58, NLSoldier, Quinn Warren, R18A1I4, ShipItUp, speedyj1, steelersdmw1, supernick24, Tjmj90, veeRtje, vyk07). Mathematically, the only way OKC in 7 is the most likely scenario is if the Spurs chances of winning their home games is less than 50%. And even in the cases where OKC in 7 is the most likely, OKC would have to be more likely to win the road games than the home games.
Bobbo and I discussed this in one of the PPP podcasts....

You are 100% right. Voting OKC in 7 or SA is silly. What people really mean when they vote OKC in 7 is not "I think OKC in 7 is the most realistic outcome" but rather "I think this series will be incredible close and OKC will win." Or when people vote SA in 6 they are saying "I think this series will be somewhat close but SA will be definitively better and will win". In other words they simply chose the number of games the series will take as a way to communicate the edge they believe one team has over another, and they do not think about what is most likely to occur due to HCA.

05-25-2012, 01:53 PM   #101
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Re: NBA WCF: SPURS-OKC

Quote:
 Originally Posted by TheDean1 I doubt this is true given how valuable HCA is in the NBA
You are assuming your conclusion. It's impossible for me to present numbers that will get you to agree with me, b/c you will discredit the numbers.

What if, theoretically, OKC were .49 to win road games and .51 to win at home. What is the probability they win in 6 vs 7?

05-25-2012, 02:09 PM   #102
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Re: NBA WCF: SPURS-OKC

Quote:
 Originally Posted by AngerPush You are assuming your conclusion. It's impossible for me to present numbers that will get you to agree with me, b/c you will discredit the numbers. What if, theoretically, OKC were .49 to win road games and .51 to win at home. What is the probability they win in 6 vs 7?
Such a minimal value on HCA is so far from anything resembling reality that it's not even worth discussing. Sure, in theory you could technically have HCA be worth a 1% swing and OKC would be more likely to win in 7. But in practice that will never actually happen, so who gives a ****?

Of course you're going to get discredited if you try to engage in a discussion of tangible events by spewing some absurd hypothetical that is not pertinent to the issue at hand.

 05-25-2012, 02:39 PM #103 Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Sep 2004 Location: pm karak w/ ffb questions Posts: 37,785 Re: NBA WCF: SPURS-OKC Also, if you really believe that OKC's odds of winning are .49 on the road, Spurs in 7 is obviously more likely, so why are you voting OKC in 7 in the first place?
 05-25-2012, 03:36 PM #104 veteran     Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: MAGISTERIAL Posts: 2,933 Pretty simple really, no statistical number crunching needed: If it was to even get that far, I have no reason to believe Pop+Duncan+Co are losing a game 7 on their home floor to a young team w/ no dominant post presence and a markedly worse coach
 05-25-2012, 04:00 PM #105 journeyman     Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 338 Re: NBA WCF: SPURS-OKC Spurs got this

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