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NBA Season Thread 2016-2017 NBA Season Thread 2016-2017

06-03-2017 , 03:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RebeccaTwigley
Quick question..

What are everyone's rankings in terms of advanced metrics.

I have

per
Ts
Ws/48
Bpm
Vorp
Tov%
WS/48
BPM
VORP

nothing else
06-03-2017 , 04:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RebeccaTwigley
Quick question..

What are everyone's rankings in terms of advanced metrics.
First off, I wouldn't put all-in-one metrics on the same list as more specific stats. They are trying to accomplish different things and should usually be used for different purposes. Moreover, the all-in-ones each contain all the information in most of the more specific stats such as TS% and TOV%. So for example if players A and B have the same BPM, knowing that player A also has higher TS% doesn't really change the odds that player A is better.

I think the best way to rank the all-in-ones is by their predictive power. That list looks like:

RPM
BPM
WS/48
PER

There's also some lesser known ones such as PT-PM which is better than BPM. I noticed VORP was on your list; this is just a minutes adjusted version of BPM. All of these have minutes adjusted versions besides PER and they should be ranked in the same order as above.

For the more specific stats, they all need to be used in conjunction with each other, so a pure ranking isn't as meaningful. Knowing how a player plays and in what ways they provide value is usually more important than the crude rankings of the all-in-ones. Generally the most useful for offense in rough order are:

TS%
USG%
AST%
Shot location distribution, fg% by shot location, and %Assisted by shot location (all on b-ref)
TOV%
OREB%

There isn't really any "good" defensive stat. For the all-in-ones, DRPM has a much bigger lead over the box-score-based stats than it does on offense. Nylon calculus' rim protection numbers are good for big men; I think they still publish them. Also NBA.com has some good ones such as charges drawn and passes deflected. And let's not forget the traditional block%/steal%/dreb%.

Last edited by w_alloy; 06-03-2017 at 04:14 AM.
06-03-2017 , 04:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RebeccaTwigley
Quick question..

What are everyone's rankings in terms of advanced metrics.

I have

per
Ts
Ws/48
Bpm
Vorp
Tov%

Would this be accurate. Obviously only taking 1 stat is useless and combing them is the right way, however which is the correct weighted order.

Think having efg and ts is kinda redundant.

Also, what are the best ways to rank defensive guys since advanced stuff kinda lols at them and lol d/ws
RPM is better than any of these
06-03-2017 , 05:37 AM
No rpm for the earlier guys though
06-03-2017 , 06:06 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by yellowfever
Not only has he never made the WCF his team hes never been eliminated by the eventual conf champ from the playoffs. Hes not even good for 3rd place.
That's nuts
06-03-2017 , 04:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by yellowfever
Not only has he never made the WCF his team hes never been eliminated by the eventual conf champ from the playoffs. Hes not even good for 3rd place.
Makes u think. CP2 might be a bigger loser than Hillary.
06-04-2017 , 04:54 AM
Insanely bored at work and reading through last year's offseason thread (TZ liked the Solomon Hill signing, lol). Other than Durant, did ANYONE acquiring a free agent last year have that deal turn out well, just 1 year later? I think Ish Smith 3/18 is looking like the best deal. Other than that I think everyone would undo the deal if they had the power.

Note: does not include extending your own guys (like Lebron, Westbrook)
06-04-2017 , 05:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tarheeljks
overthinking it imo. it's similar to the discussion people were having about acquiring durant last summer. esp when the spurs have a noted ability to make players work within their system. they can prob cobble together a decent bench, plus you can stagger players. paul covers a major hole for the spurs on both ends. gotta get him if you can
He's "old", fragile, you're giving him an albatross of a contract, and you're getting rid of a lot of good contracts for him. After he gets injured early 2018 playoffs and is never quite the same, you're all "lol spurs"ing for the 4 remaining awful contract years. Even if he doesn't get injured, he seems like the type who will decline quick and in the relatively near future - long before his contract is up.

It's interesting that some Spurs fans seem against while others are for. Risk-averse when it comes to your own team.

But eh...Pop rest/injury management, Kawhi mad af at GSW and no longer with all the weight on his shoulders, all the people who will want to join up, RC Buford black magic, LMA increased productivity from CP3 (assuming you didn't get rid of him), Manu, TP as secret 8-MPG high-energy playoffs backup...sure, giddyup.
06-04-2017 , 08:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JayTeeMe
Insanely bored at work and reading through last year's offseason thread (TZ liked the Solomon Hill signing, lol). Other than Durant, did ANYONE acquiring a free agent last year have that deal turn out well, just 1 year later? I think Ish Smith 3/18 is looking like the best deal. Other than that I think everyone would undo the deal if they had the power.

Note: does not include extending your own guys (like Lebron, Westbrook)
Horford wasn't great but clearly not awful for Boston.

Eric Gordon was great for the rockets.

Joe Johnson for the jazz was good.
06-04-2017 , 08:47 AM
Hill also was pre good when he played.
06-04-2017 , 08:49 AM
James Johnson
06-04-2017 , 10:41 AM
Seth Curry looks like a huge bargain at $3 million a year.
06-04-2017 , 11:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mullen
James Johnson
Waiters too.

I infer that TNM is talking about multi-year deals, not one year bargain-bin/prove-it contracts. Those by their very nature won't carry regret, regardless of how they turnout.
06-04-2017 , 11:27 AM
It's a motley list:

Every 2016 contract signed, via SB Nation
06-04-2017 , 12:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JayTeeMe
Insanely bored at work and reading through last year's offseason thread (TZ liked the Solomon Hill signing, lol). Other than Durant, did ANYONE acquiring a free agent last year have that deal turn out well, just 1 year later? I think Ish Smith 3/18 is looking like the best deal. Other than that I think everyone would undo the deal if they had the power.

Note: does not include extending your own guys (like Lebron, Westbrook)
All the Rockets deals were great to medium.

Great: Nene, Gordon
Good: Anderson
06-04-2017 , 12:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RebeccaTwigley
Quick question..

What are everyone's rankings in terms of advanced metrics.

I have

per
Ts
Ws/48
Bpm
Vorp
Tov%

Would this be accurate. Obviously only taking 1 stat is useless and combing them is the right way, however which is the correct weighted order.

Think having efg and ts is kinda redundant.

Also, what are the best ways to rank defensive guys since advanced stuff kinda lols at them and lol d/ws


Dick size. Usually go by dick size.
06-04-2017 , 03:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Krayz
All the Rockets deals were great to medium.

Great: Nene, Gordon
Good: Anderson
It's very difficult to look at Anderson deal and view it as good. He might have provided value on that deal in year one, though, if you don't count the playoffs
06-04-2017 , 03:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by w_alloy
First off, I wouldn't put all-in-one metrics on the same list as more specific stats. They are trying to accomplish different things and should usually be used for different purposes. Moreover, the all-in-ones each contain all the information in most of the more specific stats such as TS% and TOV%. So for example if players A and B have the same BPM, knowing that player A also has higher TS% doesn't really change the odds that player A is better.

I think the best way to rank the all-in-ones is by their predictive power. That list looks like:

RPM
BPM
WS/48
PER

There's also some lesser known ones such as PT-PM which is better than BPM. I noticed VORP was on your list; this is just a minutes adjusted version of BPM. All of these have minutes adjusted versions besides PER and they should be ranked in the same order as above.

For the more specific stats, they all need to be used in conjunction with each other, so a pure ranking isn't as meaningful. Knowing how a player plays and in what ways they provide value is usually more important than the crude rankings of the all-in-ones. Generally the most useful for offense in rough order are:

TS%
USG%
AST%
Shot location distribution, fg% by shot location, and %Assisted by shot location (all on b-ref)
TOV%
OREB%

There isn't really any "good" defensive stat. For the all-in-ones, DRPM has a much bigger lead over the box-score-based stats than it does on offense. Nylon calculus' rim protection numbers are good for big men; I think they still publish them. Also NBA.com has some good ones such as charges drawn and passes deflected. And let's not forget the traditional block%/steal%/dreb%.
Agree with most of this. Would probably add FTr to the last list.

RPM also seems a bit better than anything else and and PER seems pretty worthless.
06-04-2017 , 03:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JayTeeMe
Insanely bored at work and reading through last year's offseason thread (TZ liked the Solomon Hill signing, lol). Other than Durant, did ANYONE acquiring a free agent last year have that deal turn out well, just 1 year later? I think Ish Smith 3/18 is looking like the best deal. Other than that I think everyone would undo the deal if they had the power.

Note: does not include extending your own guys (like Lebron, Westbrook)
I think the Solomon Hill signing still looks reasonable. Eric Gordon deal looks great now. Jeremy Lin signing is probably decent. Fournier signing is alright too. The Tyler Johnson deal looked potentially awful at the time but looks ok now. Seth Curry contract was great both at the time and now.

Last edited by Snamuh; 06-04-2017 at 03:41 PM.
06-04-2017 , 09:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Baltimore Jones
He's "old", fragile, you're giving him an albatross of a contract, and you're getting rid of a lot of good contracts for him. After he gets injured early 2018 playoffs and is never quite the same, you're all "lol spurs"ing for the 4 remaining awful contract years. Even if he doesn't get injured, he seems like the type who will decline quick and in the relatively near future - long before his contract is up.

It's interesting that some Spurs fans seem against while others are for. Risk-averse when it comes to your own team.

But eh...Pop rest/injury management, Kawhi mad af at GSW and no longer with all the weight on his shoulders, all the people who will want to join up, RC Buford black magic, LMA increased productivity from CP3 (assuming you didn't get rid of him), Manu, TP as secret 8-MPG high-energy playoffs backup...sure, giddyup.
Lol at this. Cp2 will have 10 more years under pop.
06-04-2017 , 10:38 PM
https://twitter.com/josh3302/status/871436471345041410

@josh3302: When Police asked Derek Fisher to walk in a straight line, he walked in a triangle https://twitter.com/SportsCenter/sta...21759622393857
06-05-2017 , 03:36 AM
Good.
06-05-2017 , 05:57 PM
https://twitter.com/dmorey/status/871844406877446145

Great video. What happens if in the sport where skill is most rewarded the top few skilled players join one team? Daryl Morey (@dmorey) June 5, 2017

HE MAD
06-05-2017 , 06:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Baltimore Jones
He's "old", fragile, you're giving him an albatross of a contract, and you're getting rid of a lot of good contracts for him. After he gets injured early 2018 playoffs and is never quite the same, you're all "lol spurs"ing for the 4 remaining awful contract years. Even if he doesn't get injured, he seems like the type who will decline quick and in the relatively near future - long before his contract is up.

It's interesting that some Spurs fans seem against while others are for. Risk-averse when it comes to your own team.

But eh...Pop rest/injury management, Kawhi mad af at GSW and no longer with all the weight on his shoulders, all the people who will want to join up, RC Buford black magic, LMA increased productivity from CP3 (assuming you didn't get rid of him), Manu, TP as secret 8-MPG high-energy playoffs backup...sure, giddyup.

injury is a valid concern, but his game should age very well

edit: it is style clash basketball wise so that could stake some time to iron out, but paul is obv a very smart player
06-05-2017 , 11:27 PM
top 3 bbiq ainec.

@dmorey tweet -> reallly is awesome how much of nba basketball is a mix of athleticism and skill. greatest sport currently being playing at its highest level. ebbs and flows my friends. gsw won't be dominant for as long as you think and different levels of homeostasis will happen in our lifetime.

      
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