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Old 07-17-2017, 06:47 PM   #4351
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Re: NBA Offseason Thread 2017

Why is NBA a bubble?

You got ESPN covering summer league more than the yanks/sox series. Now you got a good team for sale in a growing metro area.
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Old 07-17-2017, 06:48 PM   #4352
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Re: NBA Offseason Thread 2017

i don't think it's fair to call NBA a bubble the same way it's unfair to call the art market a bubble. all it takes is one ******* to completely send "the market" out of whack.

i think if you strictly went on the paper (forbes attempted something along these lines) you have the top franchises in the high 2's and rockets at around 1.6 (i guess good). but people aren't buying the rockets for the profit, they're buying it for the same reason steve wynn buys a piece of art for 80MM. because they can, and to show it off. everyone's going to have their motives for buying the rockets, and all it takes is one person to send it out of whack.

my argument is that i don't think that person is really lurking when it comes to the houston market. maybe if there's a texas billionaire who's really into basketball maybe that move happens, but it seems more likely to me that there's no truly motivated buyer and thus the market is gonna look at it from a more measured approach, which means leslie is gonna be forced to puke the price a little bit.

he may very well take a discount to sell it to someone he trusts to not torpedo the franchise, but i think some china billionaire is gonna overbid everyone else.
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Old 07-17-2017, 06:54 PM   #4353
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Re: NBA Offseason Thread 2017

It's a bubble because the prosperity is entirely due to espn/abc massively overpaying for tv rights and essentially bankrupting themselves becsuse of it. That tv deal was probably peak nba.
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Old 07-17-2017, 07:02 PM   #4354
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Re: NBA Offseason Thread 2017

you're still presuming buyers are factoring prosperity and profit into asset valuation, which i think is not correct when you're dealing with NBA franchises, or art, etc etc.

someone could have every lawyer analyze the future of the franchise and determine the paper value at 800MM but if they have 20B liquid and some other guy wants to bid 1.5B and they really want it, well **** it, lets go 2B, what do I care if it's lighting 1B on fire when I've got near unlimited monies.
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Old 07-17-2017, 07:06 PM   #4355
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Re: NBA Offseason Thread 2017

Bubble is coming and the cap will plateau soon. Not quite there yet though.

Lots of factors like soccer taking away viewers, less new arenas being funded by public, people getting bored with the earlier rounds of the playoffs, lack of parity, and TV stations like ESPN no longer being able to afford big deals because of cord cutters.
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Old 07-17-2017, 07:07 PM   #4356
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Re: NBA Offseason Thread 2017

America is a bubble
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Old 07-17-2017, 07:12 PM   #4357
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Re: NBA Offseason Thread 2017

2 billion dollars is a lot. There's not that many people that can do that. There are a handful of Ballmers on the planet. It probably will go for 1.5-2 and were ultimately splitting hairs but I'll bet under 2 billion.
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Old 07-17-2017, 07:18 PM   #4358
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Re: NBA Offseason Thread 2017

Quote:
Originally Posted by Clayton View Post
you're still presuming buyers are factoring prosperity and profit into asset valuation, which i think is not correct when you're dealing with NBA franchises, or art, etc etc.

someone could have every lawyer analyze the future of the franchise and determine the paper value at 800MM but if they have 20B liquid and some other guy wants to bid 1.5B and they really want it, well **** it, lets go 2B, what do I care if it's lighting 1B on fire when I've got near unlimited monies.


If I had Zuckerberg level money I would not hesitate to drop 5 billion to purchase the Knicks.

I say Rockets go for 1.8 billion to someone from China.
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Old 07-17-2017, 07:18 PM   #4359
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Re: NBA Offseason Thread 2017

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Originally Posted by Wooders0n View Post
It's a bubble because the prosperity is entirely due to espn/abc massively overpaying for tv rights and essentially bankrupting themselves becsuse of it. That tv deal was probably peak nba.
I used to think that but NBA is just huge now, they talk NBA all day on FS1/ESPN. When the rights come up again it won't be a big increase obviously but it isn't going to be much of a decline either. The web companies probably get involved too.

Then overseas revenue will increase more and more, etc

People talk about ESPN overpaying for the rights but what else were they going to do? Their entire core product is focused around basketball, kinda have to have the games.
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Old 07-17-2017, 07:23 PM   #4360
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Re: NBA Offseason Thread 2017

there's lots of reasons to be really bullish on the NBA for the next 20 years. similarly bearish on NFL. the salary spread just gets wider and wider and NBA has the benefit of fewer brain injuries and when you play you get to show your face, which means better marketing and advertising opportunities. also fewer players per roster so more monies for each player. not many reasons to be bullish on baseball or hockey either.

basketball and soccer are gonna keep becoming more and more dominant imo (soccer less so in america obv)
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Old 07-17-2017, 07:26 PM   #4361
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Re: NBA Offseason Thread 2017

People need to define what a bubble is as well. If it's next TV deal being like 15% less after an astronomical runup, that's not a bubble bursting. It's a minor correction.
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Old 07-17-2017, 07:39 PM   #4362
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Re: NBA Offseason Thread 2017

Well there's also the issue of the product being hot garbage
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Old 07-17-2017, 07:45 PM   #4363
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Re: NBA Offseason Thread 2017

It's pretty amazing that the NBA is doing as well as it is when the 5 biggest market teams are all hot garbage
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Old 07-17-2017, 07:47 PM   #4364
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Re: NBA Offseason Thread 2017

With MLB/NHL being more regional sports nowadays, besides NFL, NBA is the last national discussion/viewership major sport.

Unless there is some greater macro issue like a '08esque recession that ends up lasting 3-5yrs then I really don't think the NBA finances are in trouble anytime soon.

ESPN is covering summer league more than MLB these days. Perhaps that isn't the wisest business decision, but I do think it is indicative of all the momentum the league has. These pseudo-monopoly teams will be fine.
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Old 07-17-2017, 08:10 PM   #4365
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Re: NBA Offseason Thread 2017

Quote:
Originally Posted by Onlydo2days View Post
People need to define what a bubble is as well. If it's next TV deal being like 15% less after an astronomical runup, that's not a bubble bursting. It's a minor correction.
What if it's 35% less?
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Old 07-17-2017, 08:13 PM   #4366
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Re: NBA Offseason Thread 2017

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Originally Posted by minnesotasam View Post
2B+, zero doubt. That team runs that city, which is the 5th biggest metro area in the country and booming.
bingo

im very curious how much (many) owners claiming theyre losing money is angle shooting for CBA/taxes and how much its based in reality. thats sort of the crux of whether or not the rapidly expanding markets a bubble (i think no)
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Old 07-17-2017, 08:54 PM   #4367
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Re: NBA Offseason Thread 2017

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wooders0n View Post
2 billion dollars is a lot. There's not that many people that can do that. There are a handful of Ballmers on the planet. It probably will go for 1.5-2 and were ultimately splitting hairs but I'll bet under 2 billion.

I'll bet over 2B for 50
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Old 07-17-2017, 09:11 PM   #4368
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Re: NBA Offseason Thread 2017

Ok
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Old 07-17-2017, 09:32 PM   #4369
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Re: NBA Offseason Thread 2017

At least 10 billion yuan
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Old 07-17-2017, 10:32 PM   #4370
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Re: NBA Offseason Thread 2017

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wooders0n View Post
Well there's also the issue of the product being hot garbage
Elite sport when a couple teams are all that matter.
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Old 07-17-2017, 10:33 PM   #4371
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Re: NBA Offseason Thread 2017

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Originally Posted by Wooders0n View Post
Ok
GL mang
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Old 07-17-2017, 10:39 PM   #4372
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Re: NBA Offseason Thread 2017

live tv being a bubble seems opposite of all tv advertising $ trends.

sports are incredibly valuable and NBA has crazy international growth potential, especially compared to NFL/MLB/NHL
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Old 07-17-2017, 10:55 PM   #4373
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Re: NBA Offseason Thread 2017

Lonzo wins SL MVP........guess he's going to suck.
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Old 07-17-2017, 11:13 PM   #4374
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Re: NBA Offseason Thread 2017

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Old 07-17-2017, 11:26 PM   #4375
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Re: NBA Offseason Thread 2017

Kuzma is the real star holy ****
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