Taking Assani post from season thread and replying in offseason thread since it's now offseason:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Assani Fisher
Bosh's PER each season:
age 19: 15.1
age 20: 17.5
age 21: 23.2
age 22: 22.6
age 23: 23.8
age 24: 22.1
age 25: 25.0
age 26: 19.4
age 27: 18.9
age 28: 20.0
There are two options imo:
1. From since he was in college til his age 25 season Chris Bosh demonstrated a very consistent career path of a superstar NBA player. Then suddenly at age 26, the year after his best season, he instantly had a sharp decline in many areas. This decline continued over the next two seasons. This decline just so happened to coincide with him switching teams, but that is merely a coincidence.
OR
2. Bosh's decline is related to his team switch and how he fits with his new team.
I find option #2 a lot more easy to believe.
I'm not saying there wasn't an adjustment period or that his numbers weren't obviously going to take a hit no matter what. Obviously, your PER falls when your USG falls, and yes that was a main factor in his numbers declining. However, his rebounding also took a huge drop when he came to Miami on both sides of the ball, and there's really no reason whatsoever he should rebound less in Miami. If anything, his role should be to rebound
more there while he focuses less on scoring. It's happening on both sides of the ball equally too so you can't blame his role at all. Basically, if Bosh was back some place like Toronto next year, there's no way in hell he'd touch a 25 PER because he just doesn't rebound on remotely the same level any more. This isn't that unusual for someone in their late 20s. Rebounding's definitely a young man's game and is an area where people tend to decline quicker than they do in a lot of other stats. Meanwhile, even if he's shooting a little less, the fact that Bosh tied a career-high in TS% this year tells me he's figured out his role in the offense pretty well. If anything, he'd probably be an even better fit if they shipped Wade out of town so he could take over the primary scoring role every time LeBron's on the bench.
Realistically though, I think they're just gonna stand pat. They've won two titles in a row, they're heavy favorites next year, and they know if they still have the nucleus intact after a 3-peat that LeBron's not going anywhere. Also, if there was
ever a superstar to be loyal to, it's Wade. No other superstar in history has ever single-handedly recruited a better player to take over the team which is pretty monstrous. Keeping Wade is about 100x more reasonable than keeping Kobe IMO (which is the most obvious snap-amnesty imaginable).