this table uses the above curve to say how much of a player's total career production he has left, kinda useful as a starting pt imo even tho it's obv way too simplified

Age	WS/48	CAREER
19	0.0066	100.00%
20	0.0343	99.45%
21	0.0562	96.60%
22	0.0731	91.94%
23	0.0854	85.87%
24	0.0937	78.79%
25	0.0985	71.01%
26	0.1003	62.83%
27	0.0995	54.50%
28	0.0965	46.24%
29	0.0915	38.23%
30	0.0849	30.64%
31	0.0769	23.59%
32	0.0678	17.21%
33	0.0577	11.58%
34	0.0467	6.79%
35	0.0350	2.91%

Yeah, the one major bias on Roland Rating is that it tends to overrate players who play a lot of minutes with extremely elite players, so Blake and Ryan Anderson are the type who are going to be a little overrated on it, but it does that much less so than pure +/- ratings, and as I stated WRT Blake, he put up a +6.5 Roland Rating his rookie year without Chris Paul so it's not like he's deriving all his value from CP3. Also, Bosh plays a ton of minutes with Bron and Wade so it's not like he doesn't benefit similarly. FWIW, I'm not saying I believe Blake Griffin's Top 10 ITL right now or anything. I'd put him behind lots of guys that didn't make that list. I just don't have Bosh as one of them.

I kinda responded to this quote already, but WRT the bolded section in particular, I obviously get that Bosh would have better bulk numbers (including USG and in turn PER) if he was playing somewhere where he was the #1 or #2 option. However, that's not all that's fallen off. His shooting percentages and his rebounding have also fallen off, and I think that's more likely to just be decline. Also, as mentioned earlier, Roland Rating heavily favors people who play a lot of minutes with elite guys, and that has gone down also while he's been in Miami. I think he's a slightly worse player than he was in Toronto, and yes I would take Blake for next season who is improving while Bosh is in decline.

been having a look at blake and i think i'm gonna just vote lma instead. by far blakes best possessions are transition and cuts (1.43, 1.42 ppp respectively, 20% of total posessions), both of which rely on athleticism more than other areas imo and looking at his injury history a bit closer it doesn't look good. he's unlikely to get better in those 2 areas imo, and v likely to get a lot worse if he keeps ****ing up his knees

his postup / iso game is still kinda weak at .83ppp & .78ppp (as far as him scoring anyway, don't really know how effective his passes are but he gets a lot of assists so probably fairly good). he could prob put up better stats if he was posted/isoed less and ran more **** with cp3 tho (loldelnegro). still, he has a 8'9 standing reach (real bad). if he loses his athleticism he's super unlikely to be a good defender at any pt

injury history:
jan 2008: sprains left mcl
march 2008: partially torn right meniscus
oct 2009: stress fracture in left kneecap
jan 2010: has surgery on the kneecap when it doesn't heal properly. sits out season
july 2012: left meniscus tear

not a good look. i'm taking bosh and e gordon over griffin too

This "best player on a championship team" talk is so frustrating. Out of a few guys in the league the only way anyone has a chance at being the best player on a championship is experiencing some positive variance.

Votes	Lynch	Voters
7	bosh	TheDean1 (7), aejones (6), Deanglow (3), deej_0607 (2), GeoffRas22 (9), Ray Horton (6), Velocity (6)
1	blake	iggymcfly (25)
1	lma	mcb33f (9)
42	not voting	bidon2 (2), blake (0), bosh (0), capone0 (1), charder30 (1), chim17 (1), chuckleslovakian (0), digables (0), hanster (0), i run bad (0), kp1022 (0), lma (0), lolkevinlove (0), mjw0586 (0), nath (0), sethypooh21 (0), vinivici9586 (0), vixticator (0), wiper (0), AngerPush (0), Assani Fisher (0), BobboFitos (0), BossmanJR (0), Bynum (0), Chips Ahoy (0), darO (0), DodgerIrish (0), EmpireMaker2 (0), Iambatman (0), KDebo (0), Ketter (0), Kevin Love (0), KobeNBAChamp (0), loK2thabrain (0), Omniheart (0), Scherer716 (8), Schwallie (0), The Brow (0), TheProdigy (0), TomHimself (0), ToTheInternet (0), Victor (0)

if we want to say 8 votes makes a lock, we can move on to #13 with one more bosh vote.

Assuming Bosh goes here, he and Rose are easily the two worst picks of the draft. Don't know which one is worse, but those are the two worst for sure.

Is Sethypooh21 on vacation, or did he give up in the struggle against the you-know-who? He's one of the best NBA posters.

And why aren't guys like Assani Fisher, BobboFitos, Victor, tarheeljks and some other TZ regs participating? Victor made a few posts at the beginning but now he's gone.

so assuming LMA goes next (seems like a heavy fave), who goes 14th? it becomes a pretty interesting discussion there, i'd probably lean waids but i could be moved off that position. still too soon to bring up the really old guys like dirk. we're going to need to start discussing deron and horford at some point. and since blake will be a lingering subject matter with iggy spamming roland rating, we may as well have the blake vs boogie conversation at some point.

also we're definitely entering the awkward zone where people will be complaining about "can he be the best player on the championship team?" so let's agree that it's very unlikely for all players remaining and not mention that at all.

I want to know more about each player's Ronald Rating before I vote

did we agree on LMA yet? i'm fine with talking about waids vs deron. i think we probably have to give it up for deron by now, 28 and no major injuries, at some silly points two years ago ppl were talking about cp3 = deron? he's a bit removed from that but there's been a lot of drama and he's been in an aidsy situation (taht he got himself in)

well i was going to wait for one more bosh vote (just posted that gif for fun), but we can make the rule that either 8 votes total or a 6 vote lead over 2nd place = locks in the pick and move on. so if we lock in bosh at #12, we have

1. LeBron
2. Durant
3. HGH
4. Kyrie
5. CP3
6. RWB
7. Rose
8. Brow
9. Bynum
10. Love
11. Harden
12. Bosh

LMA

LMA. I'm thinking Blake next

Blake vs. Boogie discussion

wat

haven't read this thread much, but i vote for lma over bosh. #cmonson