Philly passing on Fox at 3 will be a historic blunder. He had a higher floor, ceiling, and median than any other player there and is also the best fit for them on top of it.

Hinkie would def gotten a ransom for 3 but the new sheriff is in town

Man I see so many red flags from top to bottom in this draft, I don't even know how to rate the top 10 and from there it's like OG and a bunch of crap.

The only player I really like is Isaac, but that's probably because he's a low ceiling/high floor guy.

35% on 580 3pa in college, Giddens

Some other players who were poor college free throw shooters who became credible NBA 3-point shooters:
Trevor Ariza had a 50.4 FT% in college.
DeMarre Carroll 60.3%
Matt Barnes 56.6%
Kent Bazemore 58.1%

I would speculate that the guys who go from poor college FT shooters to decent NBA 3-point shooters are most likely going to be defense-oriented wings, since they know their likely NBA role is a 3-and-D guy, so they work hardest on getting their 3-point shot up to par. Their defense makes them more able to stick around in the league long enough to get a chance to show off an improved shot. I would be less enthusiastic about trying to take a completely raw super athlete with a high ceiling who needs to learn how to play both offense and defense and turning him into a three-point threat.

Ultimately, it all comes down to what's in their head. I'm not a fan of drafting lazy idiots with insanely good physical tools. I don't measure hard work based on who is the biggest gym rat because I think the ability to spend meaningful time studying film on your own and not have someone breaking it down for you is important.

The mental aspect is why I feel more optimistic about Markelle Fultz than I did about Ben Simmons.

Barnes bazemore etc would be terrible 3rd overall picks

All the pro JJ posts make him seem like his ceiling is decent role player

Fox has all-nba upside and is an all-star a lot

I'm a big fan of Fox. I'm type disappoint that the Knicks won't be able to get him.

Would've been baller to swap 3 with Sacto back for 5 and more

Preferably another future right to swap firsts so they can keep making this move in perpetuity

JJ could be elite role player like Marion, Iguodala, Gerald Wallace, etc. There's also some small but non-zero chance that he fixes his shot and becomes Paul George or even Kawhi-ish.

Fox will be also be amazing if he fixes his shot. Could see him being similar to Gary Payton if so.

Surprised Dean not down on Jackson due to them trex arms, 6'9 & 3/4 wingspan meh at 6'8 height.

Fox did absolutely dismantle Ball in the tournament as well

I didnt realize this was actually a real thing that exists. Whats to hate about him

I'm not sure any of that is true but he is definitely not the best fit. The Sixers already have a primary ball handler who can't shoot. And he's much better at it than Fox.

Hypothetically

Fox is like a slightly better version of Brandon Knight. Will be a fine nba starting PG but nothing special.

Good stuff, Dean.

I'm not complaining at all, but it's weird to see one of your big boards line up so well with the conventional wisdom. Is this a one off draft where you think the sites are getting it right or did you change something about your process?

Dean, noticed Jonah Bolden didn't make that top 50, as an Aussie slappy I obv think they're all going to be good but it does seem like he's gone from UCLA to play overseas and expanded his game quite a bit, good athlete at 6'10 and shown NBA range, won the Adriatic league best young player of the year award too (last 4 winners include Zizic, Jokic, Saric). Feel like someone will take a swing on him somewhere in the draft (could def see late 1st, early 2nd given his tools)

my top 30 of only american college prospects

1) Fultz

2) Ball
3) Jackson

4) Isaac
5) Tatum
6) Markkanen

7) Fox
8) Smith
9) Monk

10) OG
11) Mitchell

(big ass tier, dont see a whole lot of difference after the lottery)
12) Giles
13) Evans
14) Collins
15) J Bell
16) Kennard
17) Swanigan
18) Bam
19) Leaf
20) Bryant
21) J Jackson
22) D White
23) Anigbogu
24) Allen
25) Patton

26) Ojeleye
27) Rabb
28) Hart
29) Thornwell
30) F Jackson

Bahstan slappies

A little bit of both.

I definitely have fewer polarizing takes this year than in 2014. It doesn't help that for the most part the top 10 justifies the hype and the rest of the draft is as uninteresting to me as it is to consensus. That leaves me with Lonzo = god as my only strong opinion plus some minor quibbles here and there.

The other thing is that I don't thoroughly analyze enough prospects to be able to accurately declare consensus way wrong more than a handful of times per draft. In 2014 I was all in on Wiggins being a fraud, but the goodness of that read is diluted by me being too aggressive on weaker reads that have proven less sharp. So I'm learning to more selectively call my big shots, and tone down my opinions that are mere hunches.


Yeah I thought about slating him top 50 but I have a hard time ranking internationals with any accuracy. You'll notice he's in the group that just missed the cut, and for all I know I'm overrating him a decent bit.

Any thoughts on Staps as a ceiling for Isaac?

Pretty sure Hinkie would draft an injured center

Nah

Awful mechanics, unimpressive athleticism, rarely beats anyone 1v1, 18% usg rating.

Plus pigeon toed