fultz has the ability to be a waaay better defender than lillard / kyrie though.

i think his upside is basically lillard on offense but john wall on defense.

no reason he can't be the #1 overall pg in the league in 6 years time.

Fultz had a higher assist rate and lower turnover rate than Ball. I don't know if anyone tracks this, but I imagine Fultz also did a (much?) higher percentage of his distributing in the half court in more difficult situations.

Yet Washington didn't even have a top 100 kenpom offense. Say what you will about their talent, but anybody will Fultz's scoring ability who is also an elite passer should lead any major conference team to more offensive success.

AST% is a horrible gauge of passing mettle, and TOV% is naturally higher for pass first players. Bottom line is Lonzo turned UCLA's offense into a highpowered death machine and Fultz barely led UW to competence. Say what you will about the talent differential, but it does not explain the difference between #2 and #113. And it intuitively makes more sense that the player who makes a HUGE offensive impact in college is more likely to make a HUGE offensive impact in the pros.

I understand that and it's a legitimate criticism of Fultz. I was simply commenting on the notion that Fultz doesn't do anything but score, which is objectively untrue.

does anyone have any insight into this?

I have:

Tatum-99.9% leaving
Grayson-98% staying
Kennard-70% leaving
Giles-no ****ing idea, very unique case and no real template for what to do
Bolden-10% declaring, 45% transferring, 45% staying
Frank Jackson-90% staying

The ball going through the rim is 2 or 3 points regardless of how it looks

Robert Williams is apparently coming back to A&M for his sophomore season. I guess I'm glad he's coming back, but it's not like he will improve at all with Billy Kennedy coaching him. So he should probably just enter the draft.

tatum - gone
giles - gone
allen/kennard - gone pending predraft workouts
bolden - transfer
jackson - stay

does jefferson have lance thomas upside?

theyre basically the same dude in college

why would Grayson leave?

why do you think Giles goes this year when he is 50/50 at best to go in the lottery as opposed to betting on himself and playing into a top 3 pick next year?

still projected as a 1st round pick
start the earning clock asap
get full time treatment and care without having to deal with the school part

allen is tougher but theres not really much more for him to do in college so he should get in the nba salary pool asap and try to get to that 2nd contract

What do you win if you wait 1 year ?

You Play for the Magic/Kings/Nets instead of a play-off team if you go early 20s now

The money difference isn't that big, like 12 millions over 4 years, that's not even 20% of what a slighlty positive nba player earns in career

Because teams value youth. There hasn't been a non-freshman in the top 3 since Oladipo and that was an awful class.

When you're a guaranteed first round pick and a likely lottery pick you go pro

, it should matter that Fultz impact on Washington's ability to win games was basically nothing.

Giles would be an idiot to stay. lolcollege already stole enough money from him, get your money while you can.

I don't think Grayson is a first rounder period, much less a lock. And leaving early to go in the second round would be a pretty big issue given he's leaving after his junior year and not freshman year if he does go.

Doesn't Giles staying or going all depend on what happens to his draft stock? Given his situation he could very well go in the top 3 or fall another 10-15 spots. This would be a decision to base on risk tolerance and how much he likes/hates college more than anything else imo.

Ya that's fair

What happens if Giles stays and has another ACL injury?

Giles should declare no matter what. He's a lock top 15 pick and probably will end up higher

Anyone saying Ball is a great athlete is wrong. Yea he can dunk. He's 6'6, I'd hope so. But he actually isn't an elite jumper, and even if he is, athleticism is a lot more than that. He is not particularly fast with the ball and doesn't possess elite quickness or speed. He's also not very strong and doesn't handle contact particularly well, which has some correlation to athletic ability. I've watched all of his dunks on youtube. I remain largely unimpressed. That's not to say he has no athleticism. He's average. Just not elite.

On the other hand, I do agree with the idea that you can be a very good true point guard without being a great athlete (kidd, nash, stockton etc.). And that is indeed why Lonzo is still a super high prospect. But the league has become exponentially more athletic as the years have gone on, and there is a legitimate fear that a lack of elite athleticism today makes you less well-equipped to handle the difficulties of the NBA than it did in days of yester-year.

But the ability to do everything well, along with elite athleticism, gives you potential to be a transcendent player. This is what Fultz has imo.

good post, again Im not down on Ball either, I just think Fultz is a better prospect.

So in other words :



That was just for Geoff

A lock top 15 pick??? I wouldn't be surprised if he fell out of the first round.

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CP3 is a worse athlete than Lonzo, and the game isn't exponentially more athletic than when he was (is) playing.

And things haven't changed that much since Nash/Kidd era.

Yes, Lonzo is 6' 6" and yes being tall makes people better at basketball. But how many guys at Lonzo's height have his skill level? Magic, LeBron, and um...?

jonathan isaac at 9 seems low to me, the guy seems to have a borderline ideal skillset for a modern 3/4. would be cool if he were a bit more competent offensively but that seems more of a passivity issue than a skillset issue, concerning in it's own way but perhaps he can be coached out of it

Fultz going 9-22 in lolCollege should automatically disqualify from even being considered over Lonzo.