As far as content goes this has to be one of the better threads in SE

Keep it up dean

Yeah - I apologize if it came off like that. Unfortunately, one, objectively, can look in the same way through the whole article.

The content is usually good, as I said. However, Dean isn't posting in threads in 2+2, he's developing an independent platform. So some realtalk may help - or, of course, be jettisoned if disagreed with.

I just want to reiterate that I echo that.

Ofc, the best thread on SE - bar none - is the EPL thread when Citeh are playing and Eltbus is online & cursing out his team/coach.

Very logically/structurally sound and flows naturally. More insightful than Lowe imo.

Perhaps Tony Parker is an unspoken comp?

Kemba is his best comp.

For DSJ? No way he doesn't score like Kemba not does he break people down like Kemba. That's when he gets in trouble usually when he tries to iso like that. He's at his best when he doesn't hesitate, uses his quick first step to gain an edge on defenders and get to the basket.

You're making a pretty big leap in the passing section based on how the two teams perform relative to the model's expectation. There's tons of other factors that could be at play other than just their passing (even if you just limit it to Ball and Smith), but you just assume that NC State underperforming is an indictment of Smith's passing. If you're going to do that, you need to go at least a little deeper into the numbers.

Sure, it doesn't precisely estimate the passing value but I don't see how I can go that deep into the numbers since there is no way to isolate the value of passing w/o SportsVU technology.

I just know that there is no way in hell that the team offenses are THAT far apart w/o a substantial gap in passing. It does not pass the smell test based on all of my intuition from NCAA watching + gambling. No way are Holiday/Alford/Hamilton/Welsh significantly better than Henderson/Dorn/Rowan/Abu.

So this leaves a lot of fuzziness and uncertainty, but that's the nature of the draft and I acknowledged it in my conclusion on that section where I said he could become a good passer. It doesn't prove that he definitively sucks, but it should inspire enough pessimism to make him feel shaky as a top top pick in tandem w/ other flaws. Even if he is a bit better at passing than I am giving credit for, my bottom line argument still holds.

Thanks guys!

DSJ could be similar to Parker value-wise w/ some stylistic parallels as well.

Dean's writing has a lot of goodness. It is helped by superior length and Dean's non-stop motor. There is no subtlety to this signal– Dean clearly displayed his deep desire to dominate in beast mode in his early writings in a way that other authors do not. Dean sometimes lacks finesse and polish, but that does not detract from the overall goodness of the package.

If you were to remove Zach Lowe from ESPN and Dean from Dean on Draft, ESPN would be a much better website than Dean on Draft. This makes Dean somewhat of a mystery box, but the eye-test makes Dean's goodness intriguing anywhere outside of the top 2 picks.

Dean you know how I love your stuff but I do think there is often a sample size issue at work especially when you make definite statements about freshman 15-20 games into there career.

I'm not that conclusion jumpy that early for many prospects. Really the only players I have been definitive about were Wiggins and Embiid and I was spot on about both. I was also heavily anti-Randle, and there is some wiggle room for him to make me look silly but thus far I would only say I underrated him a little bit.

You need to realize that I never *wanted* to hate Wiggins or DSJ. I actually tried to embrace both of them for a good half of a season until they were both so wildly disappointing I couldn't fathom that the hype was anywhere near appropriate. It was the same feeling for both: I would tune in hoping to see them do awesome things and every time come away with the feeling "this ****ing guy is supposed to be the next NBA star? seriously?"

Then of course there is data to support my intuition, because I am coming from a place of truth seeking rather than wanting them to be bad so I can call my shot. It may be a smallish sample, but even if NC State rises from the #75 kenpom team to #50 they are still a big disappointment, and even if DSJ boosts his ORB% from 1.8% to like 2.3% he is still miles below Lowry, RWB, etc. My hypothesis is not weak enough to vaporize with a good 10 game run to end the year.

The one thing I have learned about my draft reads is that the extremely confident ones are good, and the other ones are wildly hit or miss. In 2014 I was super confident about two things: Embiid is great and Wiggins is not, then and everything else was random. Then in 15 + 16 I was not too invested in draft analysis (though I did love me some Justise). Now this year I am super confident about two things: Ball is great and DSJ is not. I think it is fair to give my high confidence reads the benefit of the doubt until I brick one badly.

john wall is a kenpom comparison to dsj so he cant be as awful as you think

Durant was a kenpom comp for Beasley, so yes he can.

But I will humor you-- let's take my DSJ critiques and apply them to Wall

1) Height/Length-- Wall measured 6'4" with a 6'9.25" wingspan, so ~1" taller than DSJ and ~5" more length. That 5" length gap is HUGE, and Wall more explosive to boot. Wall's physical package really puts DSJ's to shame

2) Defense-- It is possible that I am underrating DSJ's D, but Wall was regarded as a defensive beast as a prospect and has become a good defensive pro. Wall clearly superior here.

3) ORB%- Wall's ORB% was surprisingly low at 2.6%, but still better than DSJ at 1.8%

Even though Wall turned out well, I always thought he could have been better. He was a much better prospect than Lowry and Westbrook, but those guys peaked higher in the NBA. Maybe ORB% was the signal of their greater WIM.

4) Team success. On one hand Kentucky's offense wasn't THAT much better (#23 vs #48) given Boogie + 2Pat, on the other hand UK also had some offensive zeroes like Orton + Bledsoe and his team finished #4 overall kenpom which is good. This part is inconclusive, but it is hard to imagine '17 NC State worse w/ Wall or '10 UK better w/ DSJ

Wall was just a better prospect through and through. What's DSJ's big advantage? He's a fave to be a better shooter, but that is not a certainty and that is about it.

If anything the Wall comp re-inforces my analysis since DSJ is such a suckier version, and even if he equals Wall's goodness that would still not prove me wrong. I never said that he cannot be as good as Wall, I said he cannot be as good as CP/Curry/Russ/Harden/Lowry who are all a notch above Wall. I would say that something resembling a more skilled/less D Wall approximates DSJ's absolute upside.

Isaac's BBIQ is off the charts good. Put on the tape in the 2nd half here against Cuse. He's packing more goodness per sq. inch than I've seen from a young big in awhile.

Huge lol at Wiggins being a bust. Dude just went for 31 4 4 and hit the game winner. From the small forward position! At 21 years old!

Sure the role playing specialist embiid is the next great hope. Theres no way in reality he is preferable to be drafted with his injury concerns over Wiggins unless you only want hype. Yes Joel is great for 15 minutes a game. Harden proves the game is 48 minutes though

you really are saying DSJ has been "wildly disappointing" ? come on, hes not perfect but thats ridiculous.

Yup, lots of things to like w/ Isaac. He seems like a super duper role player.

Are you trolling?

Yes, I am really saying that. When everybody is drooling over him as a Westbrook/Lowry/Wall type and I tune in and see a guy who looks closer to Jeff Teague, that is really disappointing to me. Especially considering the fact most of the freshmen he is being rated above actually do look awesome and some ppl think he may be better than Ball + Fultz.

I see you haven't met Want yet.

fun fact: Markelle Fultz Washington Huskies have one win over teams in the top 220

But Dean says that DSJ hasn't made the players around him better!

In the projection Dean quotes in his article Washington was projected to be the 63rd best team, they are currently 144th.

(fwiw I think Fultz is a better prospect and should go #1 just want to point that out-- the DSJ cherry pick stuff is not fair to him as a player/prospect)

Want

Fultz and especially Markannen looking meh as hell today.

i already did a long post on why i think fultz gets more of a pass than DSJ.

cliff notes: washington is sucking super hard on D (less in PG's control) whereas NC State is sucking hard on both ends, and washington is just a way tougher sitch esp since romar is an unfathomably bad coach.

and it's not like i'm completely unworried about fultz. i would probably have him as the clear #1 pick if his team was playing better, but because it's not i'm back and forth between him and lonzo. i do think it's a bad sign that washington is sucking so much.

but why do i accept it? unlike DSJ fultz looks sexy as **** to my eye, he gets orebs, he has long arms, he's younger, pretty much just better at everything. he has the talent that makes it worth gambling on w/e losing habits he has whereas DSJ you forget the team performance and he still isn't THAT attractive.

it's never just ONE reason for a strong opinion. there are multiple inputs that go in.

interesting stuff on a 2016 player

Bleacher Report: Thon Maker is a Unicorn

On the one hand, it's a puff piece and should be read as such. On the other hand, it does seem like Maker has all the work-hard-study-hard-be-smart qualities that you desperately hope your draft pick will have (but you can't really be sure until you get them).

Enjoyable article. Thanks for sharing.