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View Poll Results: Who will end up as the GOAT
Roger Federer 296 68.84%
Rafa Nadal 84 19.53%
Novak Djokovic 40 9.30%
Andy Murray 3 0.70%
Pete Sampras 2 0.47%
Roy Emerson 0 0%
Bjorn Borg 1 0.23%
Roder Laver 1 0.23%
John McEnroe 1 0.23%
Bill Tilden 2 0.47%
Voters: 430. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 09-16-2010, 01:51 PM   #126
mephisto
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Re: Rafa Nadal v Roger Federer - GOAT Discussion

Aussie - Nadal
French - Nadal
Wimbledon - Nadal
US Open - Soderling
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Old 09-16-2010, 02:14 PM   #127
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Re: Rafa Nadal v Roger Federer - GOAT Discussion

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Originally Posted by mephisto View Post
Aussie - Nadal
French - Nadal
Wimbledon - Nadal
US Open - Soderling
You think he could win 3 slams in a year again?
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Old 09-16-2010, 02:17 PM   #128
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Re: Rafa Nadal v Roger Federer - GOAT Discussion

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Originally Posted by mephisto View Post
Aussie - Nadal
French - Nadal
Wimbledon - Nadal
US Open - Soderling
You really think Soderling will win the US open? With Fed there, Nadal better then ever and Murray and Djokovic playing. Not to mention that Del Potro will hopefully be back.
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Old 09-16-2010, 02:19 PM   #129
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Re: Rafa Nadal v Roger Federer - GOAT Discussion

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You think he could win 3 slams in a year again?
You have Federer winning 2; I'd say Nadal winning 3 next year is substantially more likely than Federer winning 2.
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Old 09-16-2010, 02:21 PM   #130
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Re: Rafa Nadal v Roger Federer - GOAT Discussion

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You have Federer winning 2; I'd say Nadal winning 3 next year is substantially more likely than Federer winning 2.
Based on what?
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Old 09-16-2010, 02:26 PM   #131
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Re: Rafa Nadal v Roger Federer - GOAT Discussion

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Based on what?
Recent history and the way they play tennis?

When we get closer to next year, I'd be willing to bet that. I was trying to get takers to bet the over on Federer getting 1.5 slams in 2010 but there wasn't much interest.
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Old 09-16-2010, 02:30 PM   #132
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Re: Rafa Nadal v Roger Federer - GOAT Discussion

Aussie - Djokovic
French - Nadal
Wimbledon - Federer
US Open - Federer

with Nadal injury in Wimbledon and Federer regaining #1 late in the year to surpass Sampras record.
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Old 09-16-2010, 02:30 PM   #133
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Re: Rafa Nadal v Roger Federer - GOAT Discussion

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I'm the same but with Fed winning Wimbledon.
Right now Nadal is better on grass than Federer imo. I dont see him losing to anyone
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Old 09-16-2010, 02:31 PM   #134
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Re: Rafa Nadal v Roger Federer - GOAT Discussion

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Originally Posted by gumpzilla View Post
Recent history and the way they play tennis?

When we get closer to next year, I'd be willing to bet that. I was trying to get takers to bet the over on Federer getting 1.5 slams in 2010 but there wasn't much interest.
I think it's impossible to say that Nadal is more likely to win 3. I give Fed a good shot at winning Australia, after that it i don't think Nadal could win the next three, especially with a healthy Fed and how good the rest of the field seems to be.

What odds were you giving for the bet?

It just hit me how good next year has the potential to be. Anybody else think the same?
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Old 09-16-2010, 02:36 PM   #135
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Re: Rafa Nadal v Roger Federer - GOAT Discussion

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I think it's impossible to say that Nadal is more likely to win 3. I give Fed a good shot at winning Australia, after that it i don't think Nadal could win the next three, especially with a healthy Fed and how good the rest of the field seems to be.
Right now - things could change - I think Nadal should be favored over Fed in every slam, French>>Wimbledon>US/Aussie. I don't think Nadal is a lock to win 3, by any means; I'm just more confident Fed won't win 2.

EDIT: Re: odds on the other bet, I originally suggested the bet, then there was some discussion of odds in the ATP thread, a couple people saying the pro-Fed side was free money, and then nothing. So it didn't progress very far.
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Old 09-16-2010, 03:38 PM   #136
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Re: Rafa Nadal v Roger Federer - GOAT Discussion

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Originally Posted by shane5495 View Post
I think it's impossible to say that Nadal is more likely to win 3. I give Fed a good shot at winning Australia, after that it i don't think Nadal could win the next three, especially with a healthy Fed and how good the rest of the field seems to be.
A good argument of why Nadal is more likely to win 3 than Fed 2 is the following:
-Nadal will win the French Open barring an injury.
On the other 3 slams he has a slight edge over Fed to win 2. Mainly because Nadal is on his prime and Federer is far from his prime.
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Old 09-16-2010, 03:39 PM   #137
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Re: Rafa Nadal v Roger Federer - GOAT Discussion

There's just no contest for the French Open. The real question is whether he will do it without dropping a set again.
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Old 09-16-2010, 03:49 PM   #138
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Re: Rafa Nadal v Roger Federer - GOAT Discussion

or if he'll win the US open without dropping one set next time around.
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Old 09-16-2010, 03:50 PM   #139
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Re: Rafa Nadal v Roger Federer - GOAT Discussion

AO: Roddick
FO: Roddick
W: Roddick
US: Roddick

You heard it here first.
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Old 09-16-2010, 03:50 PM   #140
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Re: Rafa Nadal v Roger Federer - GOAT Discussion

Nadal is favored over Fed in every tourney. That doesn't mean that he is a fave to win 3 or something. Try checking out some of the betting markets. Nadal is a dog in every tourney right now. Contrast this to prime Fed.
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Old 09-16-2010, 03:54 PM   #141
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Re: Rafa Nadal v Roger Federer - GOAT Discussion

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Originally Posted by Thremp View Post
Nadal is favored over Fed in every tourney. That doesn't mean that he is a fave to win 3 or something. Try checking out some of the betting markets. Nadal is a dog in every tourney right now. Contrast this to prime Fed.
The discussion was whether it was more likely for Nadal to win 3 than for Fed to win 2. The argument wasn't that Nadal is a fave to win 3, just more likely than Federer winning 2. Also, to add, being more likely doesn't mean being more likely by a lot, it just means more likely, the difference could be 0.00000001%.

Is Nadal really a dog at the French?
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Old 09-16-2010, 04:21 PM   #142
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Re: Rafa Nadal v Roger Federer - GOAT Discussion

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Originally Posted by Russ M. View Post
AO: Roddick
FO: Roddick
W: Roddick
US: Roddick

You heard it here first.
I don't know, maybe just the Aussie, Wimbledon, and US, the French Open i'll give to John Isner. Arod's due anyways.
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Old 09-16-2010, 04:33 PM   #143
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Re: Rafa Nadal v Roger Federer - GOAT Discussion

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Originally Posted by Enrique View Post
The discussion was whether it was more likely for Nadal to win 3 than for Fed to win 2. The argument wasn't that Nadal is a fave to win 3, just more likely than Federer winning 2. Also, to add, being more likely doesn't mean being more likely by a lot, it just means more likely, the difference could be 0.00000001%.

Is Nadal really a dog at the French?
I know. I was trying to expand on how you'd come to a conclusion.

On the French, I have no clue. Maybe? I def overstepped the realm of "what I know" with that statement though. Other 3, fo sho dog. French... No clue. Alert me when Pinny/Betfair places odds.
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Old 09-16-2010, 05:02 PM   #144
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Re: Rafa Nadal v Roger Federer - GOAT Discussion

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Originally Posted by Thremp View Post
I know. I was trying to expand on how you'd come to a conclusion.
It doesn't seem that way, as your comment wasn't relevant to the discussion.

Quote:
On the French, I have no clue. Maybe? I def overstepped the realm of "what I know" with that statement though. Other 3, fo sho dog. French... No clue. Alert me when Pinny/Betfair places odds.
If Nadal is considered less than a 50% on the French and he is healthy at the time, I would take the bet instantly.
He has won 5 of 6 times he has competed, the one time he lost being injured. The last two times he won, he won without dropping a set, in 2008 it included dominating Federer in the final.

The fact that you mentioned that he was a dog without checking, doesn't put much credibility to your comment. Despite that, I think he would be a dog in the other 3. At those slams, Federer, Djokovic, Soderling and Murray are contenders, enough to drop him below 50%. He would probably still be the favorite.
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Old 09-16-2010, 05:14 PM   #145
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Re: Rafa Nadal v Roger Federer - GOAT Discussion

Best of 5 @ Roland Garros with a healthy Nadal. There may be no bigger lock in sports
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Old 09-16-2010, 05:16 PM   #146
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Re: Rafa Nadal v Roger Federer - GOAT Discussion

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Best of 5 @ Roland Garros with a healthy Nadal. There may be no bigger lock in sports
Esther Vergeer?

Or Phil Taylor
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Old 09-16-2010, 05:19 PM   #147
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Re: Rafa Nadal v Roger Federer - GOAT Discussion

He's just under 32% at the Australian according to Betfair. Federer is just under 24%.
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Old 09-16-2010, 05:25 PM   #148
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Re: Rafa Nadal v Roger Federer - GOAT Discussion

Odds from Paddy Power:

How many Grand Slam Titles will R Nadal win in 2011?

None 4/1
Exactly 1 6/4
Exactly 2 15/8
Exactly 3 11/2
All Four 11/1


How many Grand Slam Titles will R Federer win in 2011?

None evens
Exactly 1 11/8
Exactly 2 5/1
Exactly 3 14/1
All Four 40/1
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Old 09-16-2010, 06:38 PM   #149
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Re: Rafa Nadal v Roger Federer - GOAT Discussion

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Originally Posted by Thremp View Post
C'mon Cinch. You don't know the probability of any of those things.
I never do, but I'm still a pretty good guy. And it doesn't keep me from being the greatest SEC football handicapper who ever lived, with really you know, nobody in second except maybe like Sham to Secretariat in '73. You'll have to excuse some of my rants when in stroke. It comes with the territory.

Last edited by Cinch; 09-16-2010 at 06:47 PM.
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Old 09-16-2010, 06:45 PM   #150
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Re: Rafa Nadal v Roger Federer - GOAT Discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by kevin21 View Post
Odds from Paddy Power:

How many Grand Slam Titles will R Nadal win in 2011?

None 4/1
Exactly 1 6/4
Exactly 2 15/8
Exactly 3 11/2
All Four 11/1


How many Grand Slam Titles will R Federer win in 2011?

None evens
Exactly 1 11/8
Exactly 2 5/1
Exactly 3 14/1
All Four 40/1
paddy make their odds based on their betting expectations from the general public, it is therefore no real indiciation of equity

example:
lets say in real life
nadal is 30/1 to win all 4

Paddy expect that most betters are overrating Nadal heavy due to recency base, ignoring his injury proneness etc etc and therefore obv are adjusting their odds to that
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