When I wrestled in high school I knew a dude who would wrestle at 160 and would occasionally mess up and show up around 185 and would drop it in a week. He would walk around at about 200 for football. Dropping 30 pounds in a week is certainly possible and not just water, it probably includes some starvation and maybe even ex-lax.

I know it's just an anecdote, but I would be inclined to believe it. Cutting weight is some crazy ****.

Watch the Strikeforce Challenger Series tonight on Showtime to see the future of the WW division Tyron Woodley destroy some clown. Woodley is the best 170lber nobody has heard of, great wrestling all 5 wins by submission (with 1 being due to strikes) and ok boxing. If he doesn't leave Strikeforce before he gets his shot he'll be the WW champ over there within 18 months if SF gives him enough fights.

Damn..

pretty sure he is

Asked my boy if he thought Ring was gay and he answered "Oh absolutely." I mean there has to be a gay fighter somewhere in the world. Just like I'm sure there are gay players in the NBA, NFL and MLB.

pokeriseasy,

what makes you think Brock isn't a good favorite against Carwin?

Yeah, but he wasn't dropping those 25 pounds in just water. Wrestling has a very crazy culture of starvation, and it's worse because weigh-ins are same day. He was probably wrestling at 170-175 and starving the other 10 pounds off. It's very, very hard to to much more water than that (at that weight) in a same day cut.

I don't see how he is a big advantage in anything. Fact is he struggled to keep Randy on his back with a 60lb advantage, Carwin is an excellent wrestler and will be at a very small weight disadvantage so I'm expecting Brock to struggle to keep him down once he secures a takedown. Carwin has better standup, and throws meaningful strikes in the clinch while when Brock clinches it's just for a takedown. Also the ring rust that people want to bring up for Rampage also exists for Brock, with the difference being Rampage's layoff was his choice Brock is coming off a serious illness.

I forgot that oddsmaker's also instilled Frank Mir a fave over Carwin despite Mir matching up horribly with Carwin and the same goes for Nog vs. Cain. Nog got punched in the face for 2+ rounds by Dan Henderson before he finally locked up a submission in the 3rd, I saw his fight with Cain going the same way except Nog would never get the sub. The quick KO definitely surprised me.

I just don't buy the argument that Vegas always gets it right, maybe when it comes to established sports but not MMA. Only thing with MMA is that the public isn't educated enough to take advantage of it. I'm not saying I'm some MMA wiz, but some things seem to be ignored when it comes to MMA. In reality there is no way Anderson Silva should be as big of a fave over Sonnen as he is. Sonnen could very easily get 5 takedowns on Silva and maintain top position for 5 rounds and win. Right now Sonnen is going off at +361, which is insane for somebody who's strength is Silva's weakness.

Woodley didn't look as impressive as he normally does. Coy attacked Woodley's front leg and really took away all of his explosiveness forcing him to be a counter puncher. Hopefully Woodley learns to check leg kicks, although it seemed like knees in the clinch did most of the damage. Actually surprised Woodley won the decision, but happy, keeps him moving forward.

I'm not saying that vegas is always right. I know they aren't, and I've made money off them. But I disagree about Brock/Carwin. Lesnar's at like -190 which I think is perfectly fair.

Wrestling - Lesnar is a far better wrestler than Carwin. His pedigree is a lot better, and he's used it more effectively in MMA. He's basically taken down every opponent he's ever faced, and he's shown that he knows how to play a good, punishing top game. There is only a very small chance that Lesnar ever ends up on his back and a big chance that Shane does.

Control/Ground Game - Lesnar controlled the hell out of Herring and Mir, and did so with ease. Randy had a bit more success against him. With Carwin, it's hard to tell. Carwin is a wrestler like Randy, and big, so maybe he'll get up easily. But he isn't as experience or as crafty as Randy. He's never spent a round in his life on his back, so who knows how he'll react? And size is not inherently good in getting back up, speed is. Lesnar had no trouble smothering large, powerful fighters like Herring and Mir.

Stand up - Carwin has an advantage here. He's shown the much clearer KO power. But Lesnar hits pretty hard as well, and Shane has been rocked before. Gonzaga did it, and Neil Wain rocked him a little. Lesnar definitely hits harder than Gonzaga or Wain. He broke Herring's orbital, knocked Mir down with a jab in less than 30 seconds, and KO'd Randy. Shane's chin is a little suspect, and Lesnar hits hard. I think Carwin still has an edge in power, and he flurries extremely well. Carwin's got an edge standing, but it's not a huge edge.

Clinch - Carwin has better clinch striking, but he's mostly used it against guys who are weaker, smaller, and worse wrestlers. I wonder if he'll be able to manhandle and control a guy like Lesnar in the clinch, because Lesnar is basically the first opponent he's ever had to worry about taking him down. Edge to Carwin, but again, not a huge edge.

Submissions - I think there's very, very little chance either fighter gets submitted. Don't see any controversy in that statement.

Cardio - This probably favors Brock. Again, we've never seen Shane outside the first round, and bigger fighters tend to slow down quick. Lesnar seemed to be an exception in the Herring fight, keeping up a great pace for 15 straight minutes and hardly seeming winded when it was over. Lesnar is also the better natural athlete for their size. Carwin's cardio is unknown, and could be awesome, but you have to give an edge here to Lesnar. Especially because the guy on top usually isn't as winded as the guy on bottom, and if the fight hits the ground Lesnar is more likely to be on top.

Intangibles - Lesnar's going to deal with some serious ring rust, but this can be looked at one of two ways. It's a disadvantage for the obvious reasons. But Lesnar, as I understand it, was fighting with that condition up until it exploded in his gut and nearly killed him. Supposedly he was never really at 100% because of this. Now, that could just be hype, but he did have a condition that nearly killed him that he's now 100% healed from. I think the ring rust thing is a wash, the negative and the positive (time away from the ring vs finally fighting healthy) about neutralize each other.

Summarized:

Wrestling: Lesnar
Standup: Carwin
Ground Game: Lesnar
Clinch: Carwin
Cardio: Lesnar
Intangibles: Push

I think it's not unreasonable to say Lesnar -190. Lesnar's advantages are bigger than Shane's imo. I think Shane's standup advantage is being overstated because of the Mir rape, forgetting how hard Lesnar hits and that Shane has been wobbled before.

Also, I think your analysis of Sonnen/Silva is waaaaaaaaaaaaay too simplified.

Sonnen could "very easily" get 5 takedowns, maintain top control, and win a decision? WAT

Even if (a very big if) Sonnen got a takedown every round halfway through the round, what do you think are his chances of getting KO'd in one of those five rounds?

And even if Sonnen gets a takedown halfway through every round AND manages to stand with Anderson for better than 10 minutes without getting KO'd, what are the chances he gets submitted (which he has been time and time again)?

Sonnen has basically one way to win (maybe he get get a GNP TKO, but that's really unlikely). Anderson has three.

Sonnen has to get takedowns in at minimum 3 out of 5 rounds, and probably at least 4 out of 5 to be safe because Anderson could win a round he was taken down late in. This is not a given, since Sonnen has to be mindful of being KO'd, and because Anderson's TD defense has gotten better recently.

Even given that, Sonnen also has to be able to stand with Silva for a a long time (probably multiple full rounds when you add it up) without being KO'd.

Even given both of those, Sonnen has to avoid submissions from Anderson's guard for the equivalent of multiple full rounds.

Now you can see why a Sonnen victory is so unlikely.

Yes I oversimplified Sonnen being able to take Silva down easily all 5 rounds, but it isn't beyond the realm of possibility. Besides Lutter has Silva ever come close to submitting anybody from his guard? Another thing is that it's not unlikely that Silva goes into the fight not giving a crap, 3 of his last 4 fights he's made no attempt to finish his opponent. The thing with those 3 is that none had the ability to get the fight to the ground with a takedown, and Cote blew out his knee. Sonnen can and will get this fight to the ground. I seriously don't see Silva stuffing many takedowns if Sonnen gets close enough. Silva's best chance to stuff Sonnen's takedowns are to avoid them before Sonnen gets close enough to get his hands on him. Sonnen isn't Maia, he has a great shoot so it won't be as easy to evade Sonnen.

I think Silva is going to win basically because of everything you said but he's not -450 or whatever the line is right now. Sonnen is very smart, he's not going to try to stand with Silva for more than he absolutely has to. Honestly I'm expecting a boring fight if it goes 5 rounds because so much of the fight would see Sonnen pressing Silva against the cage trying to complete a takedown or Sonnen stuck in Silva's guard.

As far as Carwin/Lesnar goes you ignore the fact that every new situation that Lesnar poses to Carwin, Carwin poses to Lesnar. Lesnar has never faced anybody as strong as Carwin, and Lesnar has never been faced with the threat of ending up on his back. Both guys have been just as impressive, but Carwin has a lot more fights and has fought recently. Also Brock's standup looked terrible in the 2nd Mir fight, he essentially applied a Marcus Jones strategy of eating strikes until he could get a hold of Mir, he even thinks about doing something similar to Carwin, Lesnar gets KO'd.

I don't see how Lesnar is -190 when he hasn't done anything that is much more impressive then what Carwin has done. Their 2 best wins are of similar quality, Gonzaga and Mir for Carwin and Randy and Mir for Brock. If Brock was -130 it would make sense, but -190 seems excessive.

Also found out the Rampage/Rashad line started out -150 and recently Rashad has gotten a ton of action and became the favorite, so Vegas thinks Rampage is the favorite it's the public who thinks Rashad is the fave.

hm? Sincere question - does his near death experience/illness not bother him at all? I imagine it should. And how is his mentally?

I don't think you have a very good understanding of sports betting(I don't really either tbh). You have two forces at work: One is the sportsbooks. These guys can offer 10 cent juice(and as little as 4 cents on some sports at some places) and still rake in the money year after year. You have to be pretty damn sharp to do that. On the other hand are the sharp sports bettors. These are the guys who truly move the lines, as they're the ones putting down the big bets the majority of the time. The general public doesn't move the lines nearly as much as you seem to think.

And its the combination of these two things which creates an incredibly efficient sports betting market. Getting overnight lines may allow you to find slight areas of value, but LOL@ the notion that a line that has been out for weeks is way off. If a line is way off, then it will get pounded overnight and will be changed by the morning.

Lesnar is not going to end up on his back in this fight. And if he does, he'll be there for a very short time before he gets up. Lesnar's wrestling is much better than Carwin's, and I would be shocked if he is on his back for any appreciable amount of time.

And I still think you're overrating Shane's stand up edge. Both guys hit like a truck. Shane has had more fights where he displays his power, but Lesnar's knocked down every UFC opponent he's ever faced as well. And Shane's the fighter more likely to have a suspect chin based on the Gonzaga/Wain fights. We also have no idea what Shane's striking looks like after 5:00 of exercise because we've never seen that.

Let's not get Houston Alexander syndrome here (not saying Shane is like Houston, but you get the idea). Shane has really heavy hands, and KO'd several people quickly. But let's not go crazy and forget that we've never seen this guy fight for more than a few minutes. He's also got marked disadvantages in this fight, and is going up against a guy who is just like him but more athletic and a better wrestler.

I don't think Brock -190 is an unreasonable line.

I'm a little surprised that line isn't higher.

When you've got two guys that both hit like a truck, the one who can take the other down and dominate on the ground has to be a massive favorite.

I wouldn't be too shocked if Brock's gameplan is to do his initial bull rush then immediately look to get it to the mat and pound Carwin out. And if Carwin doesn't get a flash KO in the first minute, that gameplan should work a big percentage of the time.

he did this in his last fight against jardine because i believe he thought he could ko jardine quite easily but normally rampage's boxing is quite technically sound. rashad isn't known to have a glass jaw so i doubt you see rampage taking the same approach as he did against jardine.

Definitely this. While Rampage is no pro boxer, his boxing is actually really good for MMA. It's one of his strengths and his weakness because he uses pure boxing and stands heavy on his front leg which leaves open to leg kicks.

He threw looping punches for about a decade before he fought Jardine, that wasn't a one-time strategy thing. Also, looping punches are not an indication that his boxing isn't technically sound -- there are plenty of guys that throw massive, looping punches instead of straight punches. Fedor, Igor, etc have made it work.

My point was that it's harder to make those punches work against a quicker fighter who understands footwork and head/torso movement like Rashad does. He's a pretty crafty fighter and he's always improving, especially his standup.

I'm not necessarily picking Rashad and I'm certainly not dogging Rampage. But the consensus here seems to be that Rampage could outbox Rashad at will, and I don't think that's such a given at all.

fedor and igor don't really have technically sound boxing. they have (or had in igor's case) sick chins and massive power but that's not the same thing.

i don't know what to tell you. his boxing has improved tremendously in the last few years. the jardine fight is pretty much his only fight in the ufc where he throws punches like that. his pride fights from many years ago are pretty irrelevant.

edit: in fact we can probably link his improved boxing to training with juanito ibarra (who was a former trainer of oscar de la hoya) which began shortly after his loss to shogun.

I'm probably in the minority here, but I'm not exactly blown away by Rashad Evans. He has some impressive wins over Forrest and Chuck but those are both guys who obviously have chin questions at this point in their career. I came away rather unimpressed with his fight against Silva at UFC 108 and thought Silva had a golden opportunity to finish the fight in the third round.

Obviously, I'm not saying he's a bum, just I'm not all that convinced that even with 13 months out of the octagon Rampage shouldn't be the favorite here.

No you're not the only one who isn't blown away by Rashad. He struggled with a lot of average fighters. He actually got beat by Tito Ortiz on the judges cards but a 1 point deduction from Tito resulted in a unanimous draw, he had a split decision win over Sam Hoger in a fight I think he actually lost. Overall he's had 3 split decision wins in the UFC, Brad Imes and Michael Bisping being the other two. We all know about the KO loss to Machida, and he was largely unimpressive against Thiago Silva. Rampage on the other hand in all his wins in the UFC has either finished his opponent or won a clear cut decision and his 1 loss was a very controversial decision.

pretty sure randy hurt lesnar tho im not going to check on that

Rashad was also losing the fight against Forrest until he caught him. Forrest was up 2-0 through the first two rounds, and was winning the third round. Rashad caught a kick and then delivered a punch that knocked Forrest down, mostly due to being off balance. Forrest beat him standing for 12 minutes other that that one caught kick, which led to a GNP TKO.

That said, Rashad strikes me as a fighter who is continually improving in a meaningful sense, but he hasn't exactly been a world beater thus far. Rampage pretty much is what he is imo, but the real mystery is how good Rashad really can be.

Don't remember Randy hurting Brock during their fight. Maybe I'm wrong, but you'd have to look it up.