Quote:
Originally Posted by pokeriseasy
I don't see how he is a big advantage in anything. Fact is he struggled to keep Randy on his back with a 60lb advantage, Carwin is an excellent wrestler and will be at a very small weight disadvantage so I'm expecting Brock to struggle to keep him down once he secures a takedown. Carwin has better standup, and throws meaningful strikes in the clinch while when Brock clinches it's just for a takedown. Also the ring rust that people want to bring up for Rampage also exists for Brock, with the difference being Rampage's layoff was his choice Brock is coming off a serious illness.
I forgot that oddsmaker's also instilled Frank Mir a fave over Carwin despite Mir matching up horribly with Carwin and the same goes for Nog vs. Cain. Nog got punched in the face for 2+ rounds by Dan Henderson before he finally locked up a submission in the 3rd, I saw his fight with Cain going the same way except Nog would never get the sub. The quick KO definitely surprised me.
I just don't buy the argument that Vegas always gets it right, maybe when it comes to established sports but not MMA. Only thing with MMA is that the public isn't educated enough to take advantage of it. I'm not saying I'm some MMA wiz, but some things seem to be ignored when it comes to MMA. In reality there is no way Anderson Silva should be as big of a fave over Sonnen as he is. Sonnen could very easily get 5 takedowns on Silva and maintain top position for 5 rounds and win. Right now Sonnen is going off at +361, which is insane for somebody who's strength is Silva's weakness.
I'm not saying that vegas is always right. I know they aren't, and I've made money off them. But I disagree about Brock/Carwin. Lesnar's at like -190 which I think is perfectly fair.
Wrestling - Lesnar is a far better wrestler than Carwin. His pedigree is a lot better, and he's used it more effectively in MMA. He's basically taken down every opponent he's ever faced, and he's shown that he knows how to play a good, punishing top game. There is only a very small chance that Lesnar ever ends up on his back and a big chance that Shane does.
Control/Ground Game - Lesnar controlled the hell out of Herring and Mir, and did so with ease. Randy had a bit more success against him. With Carwin, it's hard to tell. Carwin is a wrestler like Randy, and big, so maybe he'll get up easily. But he isn't as experience or as crafty as Randy. He's never spent a round in his life on his back, so who knows how he'll react? And size is not inherently good in getting back up, speed is. Lesnar had no trouble smothering large, powerful fighters like Herring and Mir.
Stand up - Carwin has an advantage here. He's shown the much clearer KO power. But Lesnar hits pretty hard as well, and Shane has been rocked before. Gonzaga did it, and Neil Wain rocked him a little. Lesnar definitely hits harder than Gonzaga or Wain. He broke Herring's orbital, knocked Mir down with a jab in less than 30 seconds, and KO'd Randy. Shane's chin is a little suspect, and Lesnar hits hard. I think Carwin still has an edge in power, and he flurries extremely well. Carwin's got an edge standing, but it's not a huge edge.
Clinch - Carwin has better clinch striking, but he's mostly used it against guys who are weaker, smaller, and worse wrestlers. I wonder if he'll be able to manhandle and control a guy like Lesnar in the clinch, because Lesnar is basically the first opponent he's ever had to worry about taking him down. Edge to Carwin, but again, not a huge edge.
Submissions - I think there's very, very little chance either fighter gets submitted. Don't see any controversy in that statement.
Cardio - This probably favors Brock. Again, we've never seen Shane outside the first round, and bigger fighters tend to slow down quick. Lesnar seemed to be an exception in the Herring fight, keeping up a great pace for 15 straight minutes and hardly seeming winded when it was over. Lesnar is also the better natural athlete for their size. Carwin's cardio is unknown, and could be awesome, but you have to give an edge here to Lesnar. Especially because the guy on top usually isn't as winded as the guy on bottom, and if the fight hits the ground Lesnar is more likely to be on top.
Intangibles - Lesnar's going to deal with some serious ring rust, but this can be looked at one of two ways. It's a disadvantage for the obvious reasons. But Lesnar, as I understand it, was fighting with that condition up until it exploded in his gut and nearly killed him. Supposedly he was never really at 100% because of this. Now, that could just be hype, but he did have a condition that nearly killed him that he's now 100% healed from. I think the ring rust thing is a wash, the negative and the positive (time away from the ring vs finally fighting healthy) about neutralize each other.
Summarized:
Wrestling: Lesnar
Standup: Carwin
Ground Game: Lesnar
Clinch: Carwin
Cardio: Lesnar
Intangibles: Push
I think it's not unreasonable to say Lesnar -190. Lesnar's advantages are bigger than Shane's imo. I think Shane's standup advantage is being overstated because of the Mir rape, forgetting how hard Lesnar hits and that Shane has been wobbled before.