-140 Silva
+120 Shogun

That would be my guess.

you think mitrione at +150 was off a few percent?


ps: yea i still exagerated that rua would be like the current sonnen odds

If you can't understand why a Kimbo Slice line might not be way off and an exception to the rule than there's no point in having this conversation with you.

Ok, fair enough. Exaggerations just annoys me.

rua machida, koscheck dailey...

theyre all obviously way off

its just tough to figure out while at the same time not being results oriented

This isn't correct at all. Just because a fight went differently from how the odds said they would, doesn't mean the odds were wrong. If Machida and Shogun had a rematch would you be surprised if Machida won?

If Koscheck and Daley fought again then Daley Paul Thiagos him a decent % of the time. Don't be fooled so easily by one fight.

i could have a 3-1 professional mma record by the end of the year if i picked my fights as carefully as kimbo did. ufc doesn't just look at sherdog records before deciding to sign someone
not really. koscheck decided to bang with thiago and got koed. kocheck decided to wrestle daley and dominated him.

which is why im saying you gotta see through the results.

im fairly sure koscheck would win a rematch a good 80% of the time doing the exact same thing with little risk.

I dont think shogun wins a humongus % of the time, but he would be a decent favourite instead of decent underdog, correctly so.

Was pretty confident with koscheck already but shogun surprised me.

Do you think betting on a -800 Kos line against Daley would be where the sharp money is in a hypothetical rematch?

irrelevant to the fighter that Silva is today imo

Pretty irrelevant to the point I was making.

As for the Silva vs. Shogun debate, Silva is my 2nd favorite fighter and there is absolutely no way he's even near an 85% favorite against Shogun. I'm going at best 55-60%. Not saying that Machida is a better fighter than Shogun but I actually think Machida would be a slight favorite against Silva due to the fact Machida has the ability to take the fight to the ground as we saw him take Shogun down twice. The difference between Shogun and Silva is that Shogun is great at getting back to his feet while Silva really isn't.

In a Shogun/Silva matchup Shogun would also be able to take Silva down and Silva wouldn't even attempt a takedown. From a striking standpoint Silva is more technically sound and quicker but Shogun has the ability to bum rush his opponent without putting himself in too much danger and has a great chin in case he does get tagged. Nobody in his UFC career has put much pressure on Silva standing up like Shogun would except for a slow Chris Leben and at times Rich Franklin who especially in their 2nd fight did land a few shots on Silva. A Silva/Shogun fight would be interesting to say the least.

So is a picture of Silva giving thumbs up to your claim that he's >80% against anyone besides Fedor and Lesnar.

80% isn't -800.

But yeah, Koscheck isn't 80% against Daley in a rematch.

I'm actually pretty sure he is, fighters with 30+ fights don't all of a sudden develop takedown defense.

Its kinda funny how they've hyped up every one of Silva's opponents....hes completely destroyed EVERYONE! Henderson had one good(but not even that dominant) round and that was it. I'm sure it'll be no different with his next few opponents...everyone making up reasons why "this could be the time he loses!!", but in the end hes just too good. > 80%??? Even thats a little conservative...bump that up to 90% imo!

his record was irrelevant to the point you were making. he was 3-1 against terrible competition with maybe a work or two thrown in and had no business fighting in the ufc from a talent/potential perspective. he was there because a lot of dumb people want to watch him fight.

Its funny that because Silva's standing game is so absurdly good it causes people to underrate his ground game.

People should also keep in mind that any big underdog has probably around 5% in rig equity in a big fight, and I'm not kidding.

Yeah stupid math on my part, but I'm not putting any units on him at anything more than -300.

i am not a handicapper and am not going to throw around lines i made up but i don't think it would be hard to form an argument that koscheck was probably a bigger favorite than the betting market believed.

Well he won, so that would be a good starting point for the argument

But yeah, prior to the fight (without being results oriented) I think he may have been undervalued.


EDIT: Wait...I don't even know what the line was. But I'd imagine Daley would have been bumped up a little high due to his prior two UFC wins.

The point that I was disagreeing with was the comparison of some hockey player dominating in a rec league and getting huge fan fair, which could be considered the equivalent of what Kimbo did in his backyard fights. However he had 4 PROFESSIONAL fights where he won 3 and the one he lost was under bizarre circumstances where reportedly when the card began Kimbo didn't even think he was going to fight because Shamrock got suspended for testing positive for Roids. It doesn't matter if his competition was terrible they were fellow pros and he beat 3 of them he didn't come straight from backyard brawls to the UFC.

Silva doesn't take fights to the ground, it's not that people underrate it, it's that people have rarely seen it and when we have it's because he was taken down. Henderson had Silva on his back for 4+ straight minutes in the 1st round of their fight and Silva did nothing to threaten him with submissions or even come close to getting back to his feet. Travis Lutter had him on his back for a good chunk of the 1st round and had full mount before Silva finally got to his feet with 20 or so seconds left in the round. Even in the 2nd round Lutter took Silva down but couldn't get a dominant position and Silva triangled him and then elbowed him into submission. And if you want to go back to his pride days Carlos Newton had Silva on his back for like 4 straight minutes and Takase had Silva on his back for 7 or 8 straight minutes before slapping a triangle on him. Anderson can be taken down and he can be controlled while on the ground, it has happened at least 4 times in his career, however he is pretty good at avoiding damage considering in 3 of those fights I just mentioned he came out on top.

I agree, I would've been stunned if Daley won with the style Kos fought. I felt if Kos was dumb and stood with Daley for any significant amount of time he'd either get KO'd or competely tooled like he did against Alves. With Kos using his wrestling at the first chance he had Daley's only chance was to catch Kos on the way in, which he almost did in the 3rd with a nice knee but the odds of KOing somebody on their shoot are very small. That small chance, and the chance that Daley could potentially stuff 1 or 2 takedown attempts and keep it standing for a little longer is the only reason I give him about a 10% chance of beating Kos or any other elite wrestler for that matter.

I'm looking on Silva's wiki page and it says he's a yellow belt in Capoeria.

yeah and what i'm saying is that being a PROFESSIONAL fighter and having PROFESSIONAL fights means pretty much nothing because almost anyone can become a pro mma fighter.