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Old 11-23-2016, 05:12 PM   #176
GeoffRas22
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Re: Official all-things-MLB-Offseason thread

I sort of see what VM is saying though. We know these things, but they don't, and pitchers "pitch to the score" sometimes. Strikeouts, while clearly the most valuable out, is also the most volatile bc a decent % of the time it relies on hitters chasing your pitches. With big leads it's possible that pitchers pitch to contact to avoid walks and avoid "big innings". It's less that they're trying to give up runs and more that they're changing their approach in certain situations.

Where VM loses me is taking this idea and applying it to a discussion as to which pitcher is the best. No pitcher has control over his run support, all he can control is his pitching, we should determine which pitcher was the best over the course of a season based on, as much as possible, the things with his control.
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Old 11-23-2016, 05:48 PM   #177
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Official all-things-MLB-Offseason thread

I'm sure pitchers think that way but it is wrong because I don't think it's possible to throw a neutral EV pitch, which I think means avoiding volatility shouldn't ever justify throwing a minus EV pitch. I'm not same math wiz or anything so anyone feel free to jump in if I'm thinking about this incorrectly.

Like in poker let's say you're playing 1000bb deep in a 1/2 game and have 33% equity and are getting 2:1 odds to call. It is a neutral EV decision so calling and folding will yield the same result over the long term but you may prefer folding because it is a lot of money relative to your bankroll.

In my mind (maybe I'm wrong) win probability will increase or decrease with each and every pitch. "Pitching to the score" and grooving a fastball over the middle of the plate at 80mph will always be worse than throwing the most EV pitch from a win probability perspective. Because there's no neutral situations you never should prioritize avoiding variance.
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Old 11-23-2016, 06:28 PM   #178
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Re: Official all-things-MLB-Offseason thread

Sadly, someone long ago decided to give a fairly superfluous individual stat the exact same name as the most important team stat. As a result, decades later we are still arguing with simpletons who conflate the two.
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Old 11-23-2016, 07:07 PM   #179
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Re: Official all-things-MLB-Offseason thread

Also, do pitchers REALLY pitch to win?

Or are they pitching for their next contract?

False dichotomy, obviously, but I think it leans more one way than the other.
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Old 11-23-2016, 07:20 PM   #180
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Re: Official all-things-MLB-Offseason thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by diskoteque View Post
I'm sure pitchers think that way but it is wrong because I don't think it's possible to throw a neutral EV pitch, which I think means avoiding volatility shouldn't ever justify throwing a minus EV pitch. I'm not same math wiz or anything so anyone feel free to jump in if I'm thinking about this incorrectly.

Like in poker let's say you're playing 1000bb deep in a 1/2 game and have 33% equity and are getting 2:1 odds to call. It is a neutral EV decision so calling and folding will yield the same result over the long term but you may prefer folding because it is a lot of money relative to your bankroll.

In my mind (maybe I'm wrong) win probability will increase or decrease with each and every pitch. "Pitching to the score" and grooving a fastball over the middle of the plate at 80mph will always be worse than throwing the most EV pitch from a win probability perspective. Because there's no neutral situations you never should prioritize avoiding variance.
yeah think there is a lot wrong here.

first off, the manager is doing what he can to get the win. so even if the pitcher is not thinking, or whatever you want to say, there will be defensive shifts that increase the probability of 1 run, while decreasing the chances of multiple runs

also, a more proper analogy would be calling off your stack in a MTT in a -ev spot because you are about to be pot committed when the big blind hits you and expect a more -ev spot

the pitcher throws a challenge pitch, rather than trying to paint the corner or get the guy to chase because you have a better probably of winning the game by getting a contact pitch rather than a 50 percent chance of a walk or whatever the odds may be

maybe you lack the idea that the highest ev pitch is a ball that will be put in play, rather than a pitch to maximize a strikeout

if it is a 1 run lead, than you will try to throw the perfect pitch, or shift the infield in with a guy on third, or whatever the case

every decision a manger/player makes in a baseball game should be towards trying to win, the statistics(era, strikeout to walk) give you a great idea of who is the best player (not wins) but ultimately wins is what you play for, so to disregard the stat, or show no critical thinking of how the pitcher and defense play differently based on game situation in a way to increase chances of win and disregard anything else, shows lack of knowledge of situational baseball.
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Old 11-23-2016, 07:47 PM   #181
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Re: Official all-things-MLB-Offseason thread

This is like focusing in on guys getting free throws based on random fouls when teams are in the penalty and how that affects their PER/PPG.

It's not seeing the forest for the trees.

The story is still in the numbers because the pitcher put himself in that situation, if it gets to a 3-1 count or whatever.
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Old 11-23-2016, 09:28 PM   #182
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Re: Official all-things-MLB-Offseason thread

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
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Old 11-23-2016, 09:46 PM   #183
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Re: Official all-things-MLB-Offseason thread

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Originally Posted by VarianceMinefield View Post
yeah think there is a lot wrong here.

first off, the manager is doing what he can to get the win. so even if the pitcher is not thinking, or whatever you want to say, there will be defensive shifts that increase the probability of 1 run, while decreasing the chances of multiple runs

also, a more proper analogy would be calling off your stack in a MTT in a -ev spot because you are about to be pot committed when the big blind hits you and expect a more -ev spot

the pitcher throws a challenge pitch, rather than trying to paint the corner or get the guy to chase because you have a better probably of winning the game by getting a contact pitch rather than a 50 percent chance of a walk or whatever the odds may be

maybe you lack the idea that the highest ev pitch is a ball that will be put in play, rather than a pitch to maximize a strikeout

if it is a 1 run lead, than you will try to throw the perfect pitch, or shift the infield in with a guy on third, or whatever the case

every decision a manger/player makes in a baseball game should be towards trying to win, the statistics(era, strikeout to walk) give you a great idea of who is the best player (not wins) but ultimately wins is what you play for, so to disregard the stat, or show no critical thinking of how the pitcher and defense play differently based on game situation in a way to increase chances of win and disregard anything else, shows lack of knowledge of situational baseball.
you're an idiot

you're not here to debate or even listen to an opposing argument. you're taking a contrarian position digging your heels in and ignoring every rational dissection of every one of your points and just picking new ones out of thin air. not sure why people are engaging you
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Old 11-23-2016, 11:30 PM   #184
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Re: Official all-things-MLB-Offseason thread

Anyone here watching Pitch?

It's a meh show and I doubt it lasts more than a couple of seasons, but what I've found interesting is that the writers have the players working with advance stats and seemingly suppressing the analytics talk for the show's fictional press/fans. It sure suggests that the players would fall on the side of the wins argument that one wouldn't think they would.
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Old 11-23-2016, 11:55 PM   #185
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Re: Official all-things-MLB-Offseason thread

whoa. Taijuan Walker and Ketel Marte to the DBacks. Segura and others to Seattle.
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Old 11-24-2016, 12:06 AM   #186
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Re: Official all-things-MLB-Offseason thread

Seems hard to evaluate given nobody knows what to make of segura. I guess id rather be on mariners side though?
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Old 11-24-2016, 12:21 AM   #187
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Re: Official all-things-MLB-Offseason thread

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Anyone here watching Pitch?

It's a meh show and I doubt it lasts more than a couple of seasons, but what I've found interesting is that the writers have the players working with advance stats and seemingly suppressing the analytics talk for the show's fictional press/fans. It sure suggests that the players would fall on the side of the wins argument that one wouldn't think they would.
i caught 1 random ep, it was way less horrible than i expected

i kept forgetting that the lead is played by Kylie Bunbury, daughter of Alex, sister of Teal
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Old 11-24-2016, 12:49 AM   #188
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Re: Official all-things-MLB-Offseason thread

I really like Pitch. Zack Morris is excellent on the show imo. Didn't know who it was until I IMDBd after a couple episodes.


Feels like the Mariners gave up on Walker too soon. Don't know anything about the Dbacks prospects though.
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Old 11-24-2016, 01:35 AM   #189
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Re: Official all-things-MLB-Offseason thread

Just saw the Dbacks Mariners trade. Haven't read any opinions on here. Don't think there can be much lol Dbacks here. Selling high on Segura while buying low on Walker. We tried to trade Upton for him many years ago. Let's see if the lol Dbacks is out in force tonight.
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Old 11-24-2016, 01:36 AM   #190
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Re: Official all-things-MLB-Offseason thread

Dbacks gave up on Bauer, Scherzer, and Parker too early. Hopefully we can take advantage for once.
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Old 11-24-2016, 03:06 AM   #191
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Re: Official all-things-MLB-Offseason thread

Haven't thought about Jarrod Parker in awhile.
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Old 11-24-2016, 05:08 AM   #192
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Re: Official all-things-MLB-Offseason thread

Reading yous guys posts on pitching literally makes me want to punch all of you in the face, regardless of which side you are on.
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Old 11-24-2016, 09:24 AM   #193
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Re: Official all-things-MLB-Offseason thread

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Just saw the Dbacks Mariners trade. Haven't read any opinions on here. Don't think there can be much lol Dbacks here. Selling high on Segura while buying low on Walker. We tried to trade Upton for him many years ago. Let's see if the lol Dbacks is out in force tonight.
First MLB trade in a while where I haven't had an instant feel for who won. It's a really interesting deal.
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Old 11-24-2016, 11:32 AM   #194
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Re: Official all-things-MLB-Offseason thread

dbacks side has the higher upside (marte has the potential to be a 3-5 WAR player, walker can be an ace) and the lower floor (walker already gave up too many homers pitching in safeco and marte was terrible last year). get the sense larussa is just chasing his losses on miller

seems like another situation where the dbacks should have gotten way more than they did. segura was a heavily hyped shortstop who just finished a 5 WAR season at 26 who has 2 more years of team control
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Old 11-24-2016, 11:56 AM   #195
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Re: Official all-things-MLB-Offseason thread

I'm not sure how much say so LaRussa has in trade decisions anymore. I can't imagine it's anything more than giving his opinion.
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Old 11-24-2016, 12:13 PM   #196
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Re: Official all-things-MLB-Offseason thread

Yeah, I've been assuming the loldbacks is more or less over with Stew gone and LaRussa castrated. The new guys get a blank page.
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Old 11-24-2016, 01:00 PM   #197
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Re: Official all-things-MLB-Offseason thread

Mariners rotation situation is pretty lol now.
I like the DBacks side in this and it isn't close for me
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Old 11-24-2016, 01:27 PM   #198
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Re: Official all-things-MLB-Offseason thread

Yeah I don't get this from Seattle's standpoint. Pitching was an area of concern already imo. I'm not overly big on Walker but he certainly seems like someone Seattle could have used this season, especially if Felix is no longer Felix going forward.
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Old 11-24-2016, 01:47 PM   #199
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Re: Official all-things-MLB-Offseason thread

What am I missing? The Mariners just turned Katel Marte into Jean Segura and they did so by giving a guy who was incapable of being even average in a huge pitchers ballpark. He is young but it's certainly no guarantee he puts it together.
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Old 11-25-2016, 01:27 PM   #200
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Re: Official all-things-MLB-Offseason thread

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What am I missing? The Mariners just turned Katel Marte into Jean Segura and they did so by giving a guy who was incapable of being even average in a huge pitchers ballpark. He is young but it's certainly no guarantee he puts it together.
Yeah people are over rating Marte because he put up some sick stats over a 2 month period his first year but he ran incredibly hot. His swing sucks balls.

Walker has literally one pitch he can throw for strikes (sometimes) which is the most hittable 98 mph fastball in the history of the game.

Unless Marte and Walker get a lot better (which is possible) the Mariners appear to have the better side of this trade but I can see why both sides agreed to it.
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