MLB Offseason 2016 - Page 7 - Sporting Events and Fantasy Sports

I remember having discussions on here in the past about which major leaguers could throw a ball from homeplate over a LF/RF corner fence for a "homerun". Seems like this settles any debates regarding what sort of velocity is needed, at least.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-s...orst-home-run/

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11-21-2016 , 02:37 PM

#152

Priptonite

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Anyone know of a data source with pitch-by-pitch info? I'm interested in looking into pitch-type prediction. At this stage the following would be enough:

Count, Outs, Runner on, Batter Handedness, Pitch-type

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11-21-2016 , 03:30 PM

#153

IlliniLou

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The more I think about it, the more a Quintana and Frazier or/and Robertson trade to Dodgers for Puig and prospects makes a ton of sense

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11-22-2016 , 02:28 AM

#154

#Thinman

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what in the ever loving **** is going on here

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11-22-2016 , 02:37 AM

#155

PocketChads

guaranteed 42-10 finish

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 22,449

It's just a prank, bro!

Choo choo!

Quote:

Yohel Pozo, a top catching prospect

So... versatile.

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11-22-2016 , 09:57 AM

#156

Gary Wise

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I mean, who hasn't jerked off a few buddies and posted it to youtube, am I right?

That Odor family is a madhouse.

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11-22-2016 , 10:09 AM

#157

Bighurt52235

I was born to eat hamburgers

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 24,218

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gary Wise

I mean, who hasn't jerked off a few buddies and posted it to youtube, am I right?

That Odor family is a madhouse.

Wat

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11-22-2016 , 10:24 AM

#158

diskoteque

Joey Local

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 30,420

Quote:

Originally Posted by VarianceMinefield

Every pitch and location could be different depending on the score and situation. Anytime you have a 3 run lead and a guy at a 2-0 count, it is highly likely to be a fastball in zone.

Not sure here is really an argument here. I have played plenty of MLB the show to not only understand a lot of situational baseball, but I have some up with ways to increase equity that I have never seen teams do.

Wins should not determine CY young, as I think I need to make that clear again to you guys, but it does matter getting the win and people should pitch different and defenses shift differently depending on the score.

Every stat that goes into a game is to try to accomplish a win, you are not trying to accomplish the lowest exist velocity off your pitches or the highest strike out rate

I never understood this line of thinking. The best thing a pitcher can do to help his team win is prevent the other team from scoring and every pitch he throws should be intended to minimize the other team's chances to score. I don't see any reason why you would look at wins over a run counting stat like ERA/FIP.

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11-22-2016 , 10:40 AM

#159

JonnyA

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Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 2,664

Quote:

Originally Posted by diskoteque

It's a bad argument that was originated (or at least brought to prominence) by Jack Morris for HOF supporters - and has been debunked numerous times. That said, I'm pretty sure he's just trolling as his support for the position is that he's got lots of experience playing a baseball video game.

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11-22-2016 , 03:08 PM

#160

txdome

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The Rangers keep adding to how they are the scummiest org in baseball recently. Odor, Hamilton, Ron Washington, Matt Bush, W. Bush, I'm sure that I'm missing some.

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11-22-2016 , 07:10 PM

#161

#Thinman

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xpected to be charged are the younger brother of Rangers second baseman Rougned Odor, also named Rougned

victim of lazy parenting

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11-22-2016 , 07:26 PM

#162

72off

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Quote:

Originally Posted by #Thinman

victim of lazy parenting

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11-22-2016 , 09:03 PM

#163

KJS

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Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 5,109

Quote:

Originally Posted by diskoteque

Look no further than a hypothetical guy who goes 0-20 but loses every game 1-0 to see that wins is a terrible pitching metric

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11-22-2016 , 09:08 PM

#164

DodgerIrish

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Randy Johnson comes to mind where for a stretch in AZ he had stellar performances juxtaposed with no run support.

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11-22-2016 , 09:14 PM

#165

thebigeasy59

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Did Cliff Lee not going like 7-9 with 6WAR in 2012 or something? How is this even a conversation?

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11-22-2016 , 09:22 PM

#166

72off

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King Felix 52-45 with 20.7 WAR from 2010-2013

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11-22-2016 , 09:28 PM

#167

VarianceMinefield

banned

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 57,722

Quote:

Originally Posted by diskoteque

I never understood this line of thinking. The best thing a pitcher can do to help his team win is prevent the other team from scoring and every pitch he throws should be intended to minimize the other team's chances to score. I don't see any reason why you would look at wins over a run counting stat like ERA/FIP.

I wouldn't argue wins are more important than any stat. I am just saying getting a win is not meaningless.

You pitch to win the game, not to prevent the other team from scoring. Plenty of times teams will set their defense in a way to minimize damage but allow a run to score.

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11-22-2016 , 10:14 PM

#168

PocketChads

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Quote:

Originally Posted by VarianceMinefield

You pitch to win the game

Thanks

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11-22-2016 , 10:34 PM

#169

that_pope

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Quote:

Originally Posted by DodgerIrish

Randy Johnson comes to mind where for a stretch in AZ he had stellar performances juxtaposed with no run support.

His 2004 season.

16-14, 2.60 ERA, 2.30 FIP, 0.900 WIP, 6.5 H/9, 10.6 K/9, 8.5 WAR.

Still lost Cy Young to Roger Clemens and his 18-4 record though even though Randy had him in every category except W/L.

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11-22-2016 , 11:02 PM

#170

CheckRaise

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Quote:

Originally Posted by VarianceMinefield

And you win games by preventing runs? As a pitcher when you have a 3 run lead you don't think hey I'll just give in to this guy and grove him some fastballs because who cares if he hits a bomb.

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11-22-2016 , 11:21 PM

#171

VarianceMinefield

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Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 57,722

Quote:

Originally Posted by CheckRaise

And you win games by preventing runs? As a pitcher when you have a 3 run lead you don't think hey I'll just give in to this guy and grove him some fastballs because who cares if he hits a bomb.

I am just arguing a win is not meaningless. I would never decide the Cy Young based on it. There are plenty of deep statistics to figure out who the best is and the win statistic is not involved in that math.

There are plenty of clear examples where the pitcher will groove a fastball down the middle and not care if they hit a bomb. A 5-0 lead in a 3-0 count is exactly what a starter would do.

I imagine the catcher would come to the mound and say, fastball over the plate, i dont care if he hits it 500 feet, dont just give up the walk

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11-22-2016 , 11:40 PM

#172

txdome

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Quote:

Originally Posted by that_pope

Roger Clemens took it up the ass hard in 2005 with the Astros. Awesome stqts on WS team, but horrible run support and W/L.

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11-23-2016 , 12:29 AM

#173

Bighurt52235

I was born to eat hamburgers

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 24,218

Quote:

Originally Posted by DodgerIrish

Randy Johnson comes to mind where for a stretch in AZ he had stellar performances juxtaposed with no run support.

This hasn't been verified at all, but I seem to recall a 4 start stretch he had where the Dbacks hit totals in four consecutive Unit starts were 0, 1, 2, 3. The zero being Jose Jimenez no hitter. I don't at all recall what Johnson allowed in that stretch. Think he was stingy though!

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11-23-2016 , 04:56 PM

#174

diskoteque

Joey Local

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 30,420

Quote:

Originally Posted by VarianceMinefield

Throwing a -EV pitch is bad and giving up a home run is bad, though. The only way a pitcher can contribute to the team winning a game is by keeping the other team's score as low as possible. I just don't see how giving up a home run instead of a walk is desirable if your goal is to win.

Basically there is no situation where you increase your chances of winning by increasing the other team's score or likelihood of scoring. Therefore there is never a reason to look at wins instead of a run counting stat.

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11-23-2016 , 05:01 PM

#175

diskoteque

Joey Local

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 30,420

Using an example... imagine the score is 12-0, bottom of the 6th. Win probability is like 99% or whatever. Giving up a run or a hit or whatever will never move that probability up. Only getting outs will. The fact that the game is virtually sealed makes no difference w/r/t the EV of the pitch

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