billy hamilton now with 71 steals in 60 games

http://www.baseball-reference.com/mi...d=hamilt002bil

call the man up already

I've been following a minor leaguer from my hometown, but I need help figuring out how he's doing. This is his second year in single A ball with the Greenville Drive. He plays the OF and is batting about .280 in 104 ABs. He has 3 homers, 13 RBI with OBP/SLG/OPS of .356/.404/.760. Are these reasonable stats for a second year 11th rounder? Does he have a chance of being promoted next year or anytime soon?

Also, is it really strange that as a righty he's batting much better v. RHPs? I guess it could be sample size, but he's hitting righties at a .309 ave. and lefties .222.

Depends on his age, tools etc. but doesnt sound like hes much of a prospect. Its fairly common for rightys to struggle against advanced lefties, probably hasnt faced many good ones previously

It is so hard to tell just from stats. Age and tools are definitely a big deal. But obviously he doesn't have much power so I'm hoping that at last his speed is somewhat okay. If he started in Greenville at only 19 or something then he's in good shape. That shows that they put him there with minimal time (or skipping) the Rookie and low-level stuff). If he's 23 and in his 4th year as a pro or something then still being Greenville is probably not so great.

Big difference between those who start straight out of high school vs. those who played in college.

Lots of call-ups happen at the all-star break when there is a bit of a chain-effect going on. So he could go up to A+ ball (which is the next step up from single-A Greenville, not AA) perhaps at some point in July or, more realistically with his mediocre numbers, next year....if they have space and the need AND if they feel he's ready to give it a try.

The next team in the Red Sox chain up the ladder from Greenville of the South Atlantic League would be Salem, Virginia in the Carolina League.


Side-note: A lot of players talk of the steep difference from A+ ball to AA. One of the hardest jumps and adjustments to make. Basically, you are looking at close to a A+ all-star caliber team all over the place in AA. Hitters especially sometimes have a tough time adjusting to the better quality pitchers in AA that were able to make it out of A+.

He shares some pretty insane characteristics to 19th hall of famer also named Billy Hamilton (played for the Phillies and lolboston Beaneaters), who led the league in steals five times. Jason Collette posted this today:

1st Billy Hamilton in 1888 had 72 steals in 61 games for Worchester Grays. Current Billy Hamilton now has 72 steals in 61 games for Blaze.

Freaky.

Thanks guys. He's 23 and this is his second year in the minors. He was drafted out of JUCO, where he was 1st team all-american. He played most if not all of his first year in Greenville. It looks like this year he's only played in about half of the team's games.

Coming out I think he was thought of as a 5-tool guy, but he hasn't displayed much power or speed (at least in terms of SB.) in his stats so far. He had signed at LSU but took the $500,000 signing bonus instead.

squeek just curious why you would triple slash obp/slg/ops and not the standard avg/obp/slg. the second one tells you much more about a player than the first.

just because I didn't know which numbers usually go in there! I'm just a very casual baseball fan with hometown guy rooting interest.

no problem, was just curious, i've seen it in plenty of other places as well and was just curious if it was a thing.

Numbers are just soooo hard to tell in some prospects.

A first-rounder I saw in the 90's had some decent tools but was putting up terrible numbers. When I saw him in person in A+ ball he had an injury plagued season but still just couldn't hit the freaking ball. 26 games, 15-for-95 (.176) with 21k, 3 doubles, 1 HR. Terrible and he dropped off many radars as far as being a prospect.

3 years later, he was a viable NL Rookie of the Year candidate batting .280 with 26 HR's.

Preston Wilson didn't exactly have a Hall of Fame career, but when I saw him he did not look like he would be playing MLB three years later.

That same team had a 10th rounder (so at one point was considered to have a LOT of potential....10th round is really good). But he was terrible. Hit about .210. And he would be out of baseball by the following year.

A lot of it also can depend on what round a player was drafted in. Somebody who was taken in the first five rounds obviously has some good tools as a foundation PLUS the organization has a fair amount invested in him. If a 4th rounder and a 30th rounder are equal in everything and have the same amount of desire, etc the 4th rounder is going to make it to MLB before the 30th rounder every time imo.

But even getting taken in the first round it is STILL tough to make it. Simply not a guarantee at all.

Here some early round picks including a couple of fairly early first round picks who were given a fair amount of opportunity to get their game together who simply were not able to make it. And remember, when these guys were taken 8th or 13th overall in the draft they were grabbed that early for a reason.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/mi...d=stratt002rob

http://www.baseball-reference.com/mi...d=presle001kir

http://www.baseball-reference.com/mi...d=davis-006gle

http://www.baseball-reference.com/mi...d=colyer001ste

One team I was with had three first rounders on their roster at the same time so you would think looking back now I would be talking about these MLB All-Stars who everyone knows. Not at all. One never made it and the other two were a couple of reserves mostly: Damian Rolls and Bubba Crosby who played about 200-250 MLB games each with TB and NYY respectively.

Everyone hears about the first-rounders and top 5 picks who also make it big time. But the number of first and second rounders who don't even play 10 games in MLB is really high.

Baseball always fascinates me in that regard. Some REALLY highly touted prospects who are given every opportunity in the world because the tools are there yet so many don't make it. Evaluating talent seems to be so different from the other sports in that regard which is why there are so many minor league teams for development and such a gradual stepping-stone process to get there.


Check this out: Overall picks 2 through 5 in 2000 pretty much amounted to either nothing or not much in MLB. As well as a lot of the other top picks. Man, I remember the hype for 17th pick Ben Diggins of the Dodgers who was a first round pick TWICE (didn't sign with STL out of high school in 1998). Freshman All-america at U. Arizona in 1999 and national All-America in 2000. Ended up making 4 MLB starts with MIL and that was the full extent of his MLB career.

I mean, what other sport has so many first rounders end up being total duds at the major league level? It just doesn't happen.


2000 MLB First Round:


Pick Player Team Position Hometown/School
1 Adrian Gonzalez Florida Marlins 1B Chula Vista, CA
2 Adam Johnson Minnesota Twins RHP Cal-State Fullerton
3 Luis Montanez Chicago Cubs SS Miami, FL
4 Mike Stodolka Kansas City Royals LHP Corona, CA
5 Justin Wayne Montreal Expos RHP Stanford
6 Rocco Baldelli Tampa Bay Devil Rays OF Warwick, RI
7 Matt Harrington Colorado Rockies RHP Palmdale, CA
8 Matt Wheatland Detroit Tigers RHP San Diego, CA
9 Mark Phillips San Diego Padres LHP Hanover, PA
10 Joe Torres Anaheim Angels LHP Kissimmee, FL
11 Dave Krynzel Milwaukee Brewers OF Henderson, NV
12 Joe Borchard Chicago White Sox OF Stanford
13 Shaun Boyd St. Louis Cardinals 2B Oceanside, CA
14 Beau Hale Baltimore Orioles RHP Texas
15 Chase Utley Philadelphia Phillies 2B UCLA
16 Billy Traber New York Mets LHP Loyola Marymount
17 Ben Diggins Los Angeles Dodgers RHP University of Arizona
18 Miguel Negron Toronto Blue Jays OF Caguas, PR
19 Sean Burnett Pittsburgh Pirates LHP Wellington, FL
20 Chris Bootcheck Anaheim Angels RHP Auburn
21 John Bonser San Francisco Giants RHP Pinellas Park, FL
22 Phil Dumatrait Boston Red Sox LHP Bakersfield College
23 David Espinosa Cincinnati Reds SS Miami, FL
24 Blake Williams St. Louis Cardinals RHP S.W. Texas State
25 Scott Heard Texas Rangers C San Diego, CA
26 Corey Smith Cleveland Indians SS Piscataway, NJ
27 Robert Stiehl Houston Astros RHP El Camino College
28 David Parrish New York Yankees C Michigan
29 Adam Wainwright Atlanta Braves RHP Marietta, GA
30 Scott Thorman Atlanta Braves 3B Cambridge, ON
[edit]Compensation picks

Pick Player Team Position School
31 Aaron Heilman New York Mets RHP University of Notre Dame
32 Tripper Johnson Baltimore Orioles RHP Newport High School
33 Dustin McGowan Toronto Blue Jays RHP Long County High School
34 Dustin Moseley Cincinnati Reds RHP Arkansas High School
35 Carlton Godwin Texas Rangers OF University of North Carolina
36 Bobby Keppel New York Mets RHP De Smet Jesuit High School
37 Derek Thompson Cleveland Indians LHP Land O'Lakes High School
38 Kelly Johnson Atlanta Braves SS Westwood High School
39 Chad Hawkins Texas Rangers RHP Baylor University
40 Aaron Herr Atlanta Braves SS Hempfield High School

Keith Law disagrees. He recently rated Walker ahead of Bauer. I suspect that Kevin Goldstein would not put Walker ahead of Bauer. They are close in everyone's opinion (except yours, I guess).

Thanks for the insight, Microbob. I find it pretty incredible that an 11th rounder gets a $500,000 signing bonus when the teams knows it's pretty damn unlikely he ever makes it to the bigs. I wonder if there are any numbers on what percentage of players from each round play a single game in MLB. I'll do some googling.

It looks like only 2/3 of 1st rounders and half of the 2nd rounders ever make it. For 11th rounders it looks like maybe 15% or so.

Actually, if he got a 500k bonus, he was clearly a good prospect coming out of JuCo, probably a top 100-150 guy in the draft class, since 500k is wayyyyy overslot in 11th round. So he probably still has a chance to make MLB since he's gotta have good tools if he got that much money, but as a JuCo guy in lower minors at his age, his stats are disappointing and his prospect status had to take a hit

edit - did some research and found the guy you are talking about, pretty much on nobody's radar entering this year (wasnt among Sickels top 50~ prospects for the organization) so guess his stock took a big hit since the draft