Quote:
Originally Posted by Ray Horton
It sure is surprising, then, that some of the lowest league ERAs occurred when such -eV pitching decisions were made. Or perhaps you're arguing that they would have been even lower had your approach been employed.
lowering the mound. smaller strike zones. parks. batters figuring out that they should lift weights. managers and baserunners giving away far fewer outs. teams figuring out that walking is extremely important and therefore making much better decisions about which players to use. etc etc etc. there are so many variables affecting league era that i can't possibly list them all. probably hundreds. to treat number of ip by starters as the only or even the overriding factor is ridiculous.
Quote:
The claim that average relief pitchers today do better than good starting pitchers on the latter's 3rd or 4th time through the order has a number of embedded variables. For one, modern starters have been conditioned to expect relief. 95% of the time they pitch they can expect to go 8 innings or less. In the past they had to find some way to finish the game most of the time, yet nothing suggests their ineffectiveness at the end of games is drastically different than pitchers today. Two, and I think Nolan Ryan made a point on this, modern pitchers grow up coddled with pitch counts and kid gloves to deter injuries, but that has had the collateral effect of limiting their tolerance for bulk innings.
nolan ryan is a dumb hick with a mutant rubber arm. he pitched until he was 46 ffs. his insight into this is influenced by the fact that he is both a complete freak of nature and not very bright.
you know what else explains pitchers losing effectiveness the longer they go into games? being tired just due to throwing a whole bunch of pitches. hitter familiarity.
now i guess all of these seem like reasonable explanations. the problem is that your explanation hinges on pitchers actually being in better shape 30/50/100 whatever years ago. that is an absurd thing to believe.
Quote:
I'll agree that we won't know how many arms were ruined in the past with the 4-man rotation and limited/if any relief, and just how many arms are saved today with the more diligent approach. But we do know that ERAs in the 70s and 80s were lower than the last decade with starters going more innings, and modern conditioning and other changes weren't that much different.
are you really claiming that modern nutrition and fitness in mlb is not that much different than it was in the 70s?
also the 80s is when ip started to drop a lot. possibly because teams figured out that they won more games when they used relievers more often.
Quote:
By best I mean "most dominant" which doesn't necessarily refer to length of career.
the guys that you think of as dominant all had long careers. you are selecting a sample size which only includes pitchers with long careers.
Last edited by Phildo; 07-19-2012 at 05:42 AM.