Why have stolen base leaders fallen off so much? - Sporting Events and Fantasy Sports

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Why have stolen base leaders fallen off so much?

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08-07-2008 , 03:34 PM

ZonaAlumn

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 1,764

Ty cobb, Maury wills, Lou Brock, Ricky Henderson and Vince coleman, they were premier base stealers, only 4 have over 100 steals in a season.

Nobody has over 80 steals in a season in the last 20 years, I can not think of a reasonable answer to this, but am looking for one.

Edit:Tim raines

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08-07-2008 , 03:39 PM

gehrig

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higher run scoring environments make caught stealings more costly which makes stealing less worthwhile

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08-07-2008 , 03:46 PM

ZonaAlumn

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 1,764

Quote:

Originally Posted by gehrig

higher run scoring environments make caught stealings more costly which makes stealing less worthwhile

Sounds good to me. Does that mean that henderson's records (season and career) are looked at as somewhat untouchable?

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08-07-2008 , 03:47 PM

johnnylovescandy

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 2,051

bases are 20% further apart now vs. then

at least that's what most base tectonic theorists suggest

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08-07-2008 , 03:53 PM

illini43

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Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 4,829

I'm not expert, but maybe the slide-step many pitchers employ today eliminates the "jump" runners can get on a right-handed pitcher, thus making stealing bases riskier?

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08-07-2008 , 05:10 PM

Not Lolo

banned

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 3,989

Sabermetric philosophy and American league style baseball. Playing "big Ball" instead of small ball which has fallen out of favor.

Many managers would rather have their runners go station to station and wait for a home run to score runs. They play Earl Weaver style baseball more now rather than play scrappy John McGraw style baseball of the past.

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08-07-2008 , 07:00 PM

SuperUberBob

Not interesting enough

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 48,217

Quote:

Originally Posted by gehrig

higher run scoring environments make caught stealings more costly which makes stealing less worthwhile

/thread

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08-07-2008 , 07:58 PM

JackWhite

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Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 3,784

Let me throw out one other theory: fewer African American players. Take a look at the stolen base leaders from the 50s-80's from year to year. A lot of AA players were league leaders when stolen bases were an important part of the game.

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08-07-2008 , 08:14 PM

dlk9s

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Quote:

Originally Posted by ZonaAlumn

Sounds good to me. Does that mean that henderson's records (season and career) are looked at as somewhat untouchable?

Yup, pretty much.

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08-07-2008 , 08:29 PM

#10

TalkingDonkey

RIZZAHHHHHH

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 17,137

Quote:

Originally Posted by JackWhite

You don't actually believe this, do you?

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08-07-2008 , 08:40 PM

#11

JackWhite

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 3,784

Quote:

Originally Posted by TalkingDonkey

You don't actually believe this, do you?

Let's see. Most of the great stolen base artists of recent years were African Americans. True or false? Now there is a smaller percentage of African American players in the game. Why couldn't that have some effect on the game?

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08-07-2008 , 08:46 PM

#12

pnycff

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Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 2,600

just because jack's theory sounds politically incorrect doesnt mean it isnt true, or atleast part of the reason

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08-07-2008 , 08:48 PM

#13

Quadstriker

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Just when I thought we were going to come to a conclusion on a subject in fewer than 10 posts...

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08-07-2008 , 08:56 PM

#14

LFS

emo gaylord

Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 21,865

Paging the Joe Morgan gimmick account, will the Joe Morgan gimmick account please report to this thread.

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08-07-2008 , 09:35 PM

#15

vhawk01

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Quote:

Originally Posted by pnycff

just because jack's theory sounds politically incorrect doesnt mean it isnt true, or atleast part of the reason

right, that isnt why it isnt true. of course i dont know if its 'true' or not but its dumb and unnecessary and smacks of post hoc/narrative fallacy. plus zomg cobb was white dog, and although there might be less AA now than in the seventies its not like there are way more white dudes.

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08-07-2008 , 10:16 PM

#16

Dudd

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Everyone knows black guys from the Dominican lack the fast genes, ldo.

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08-07-2008 , 10:50 PM

#17

TheQuietAnarchist

Formerly xorbie

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 22,826

If the problem was lack of black guys, you would see a few people getting a lot of steals, not nobody getting a lot of steals. Theory = fail.

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08-07-2008 , 10:54 PM

#18

Thremp

banned

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 36,452

COLORED PEOPLE ARE NOT JUST AFRICAN AMERICANS FFS. THERE ARE STILL BLACKS.

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08-07-2008 , 11:03 PM

#19

Black Joe Morgan

stranger

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Quote:

Originally Posted by JackWhite

This.

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08-08-2008 , 12:39 AM

#20

Not Lolo

banned

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 3,989

Quote:

Originally Posted by vhawk01

Could you define post hoc/narrative fallacy for us unimaginative types?

It sounds like something you would think I am guilty of often.

I am staying away from the rest of this stuff. The Joe Morgan Gimmick account is classic maybe Clark and Tug will allow it for special occasions. FYI -I had nothing to do with it.

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08-08-2008 , 02:06 AM

#21

CheckRaise

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Quote:

Originally Posted by JackWhite

yes

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08-08-2008 , 02:21 AM

#22

Jack Bando

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Haven't they also stopped counting some steals and labeling them catcher's indifference? (Team A is up 8-3 in the 9th with a guy on 1st for Team B, the catcher just lets him steal)