It's that time.




Women in hats





The infield party




My old Kentucky Home





The stakes record is held by this guy:



Last year, it was triple crown heartbreak for California Chrome





The latest crop of 3yo horses trying to make history.

The favorite from the Arkansas Derby: #18 American Pharoah. 5 races: 4-0-0 Best Beyer 105



Second choice from Santa Anita Derby: #8 Dortmund. 6 races: 6-0-0 Best Beyer 106



Third Choice from the Bluegrass: #2 Carpe Diem. 5 races: 4-1-0 Best Beyer 98



Others with super legit shots:

#3 Materiality from the Florida Derby. 3 races, 3-0-0 Best Beyer 110



#19 Upstart from the Florida Derby. 5 races, 2-1-2 Best Beyer 108



#6 Mubtaahij from Dubai. 7 races, 4-1-0 Best Beyer n/a, estimated 95





This year's field is by far the strongest I can recall. I have to go back to the year Silver Charm won to think of so many horses who looked so good. Not sure what I'll bet yet but this is a must-watch Derby.

Past Performances: http://www.equibase.com/rotw/fullpp.pdf

Horse capsules and links to the prep races: http://www.drf.com/events/kentucky-d...hurchill-downs

Boss OP!

Amazing job Clark.

Horses are incredible this year.

$100 total

$20 win 18 American Pharoah
$20 place-show 7 El Kabeir
$20 place-show 15 Frosted

Lots of horses with a chance as well as some rightful favorites. Should be great prices. You'll need a suitcase to carry your money home if you hit a trifecta.

I'll be drinking JULEPS all day

In

Dortmund/Frosted/Carpe Diem

$100 win pharoah
$60 exacta pharoah and Dortmund
$40 exacta Dortmund and pharoah
$10 tri box pharoah, Dortmund, xxx?

Like most of you said, this is a fantastic group of horses, many with a chance to win and this creates great betting opportunities if A.P. is out of the board.
I really don't see that much separation from him and the rest of the field, and he will probably be favored at 2-1 or less and IMO you have to bet against him in this particular race.
Dortmund is a monster and he is a must use in any exotic bets.
For the win bet, you can get about 14-1 on Firing Line and Frosted, both have a great chance.
My longshot pick is Bolo, he had the worst trip from the contenders in the SA derby.
I don't remember being excited for a KY derby in years, but this one looks amazing!

I like Dortmund, but very hard to ignore Frosted's last.

If there is little pace pusing him, Dortmund wins, if there is a battle, then American Pharoah or Frosted.

Frosted is going to be good odds, so might take some of him.

El Kabeir gonna be scratched from all accounts.

Sticking my neck out on Mubtaahij this year, he's bred to run forever and he's really the only one I've seen that can accelerate like AP. Frosted right there as well, my top 3. So many more horses in this, amazing race this year.

Thanks for pic of Kim K, didn't remember what she looked like before she became a lard.

Dortmund will win.
Carpe Diem will finish 2nd.
Frosted will finish 3rd.
American Pharoah will finish 4th after getting stuck outside for too long early.

Oaks Derby Double

Big: 5/15-18-19

Small: 5-12/2-3-8-15-18-19

Booo

I think Frosted will be tough to beat but Pharoah is one that can get him. If he fires I like Firing Line but distance could be his problem.

Implied odds based on Oaks/Derby will-pays

1	122.5
2	12.5
3	16.1
4	89.1
5	49.1
6	15.1
7	SCR
8	5.6
9	50.5
10	13.0
11	SCR
12	26.8
13	107.1
14	105.6
15	11.8
16	113.2
17	134.4
18	3.9
19	20.3
20	57.9
21	172.6

I'm calling Materiality based on the pics above alone and no other knowledge of these horses or horse racing

I've got Materiality

American Pharoah is a great name so rolling with AP.

Liking Bolo in my exotics mixed with AP and Dortmund. Playing frosted and firing line as well. May take a look at materiality

My semi-final look:

Top Tier:

#18 - American Pharoah. He simply looks insanely good. I think he's an underlay on the tote board, but he's the best horse.

#19 - Upstart. Runs as fast as any of these and is a grinder. I think he should get the distance and should get a semi-decent trip right behind the 18.

#8 - Dortmund. I want to put him lower as I'm not a huge believer, but I really don't think there is *that* much speed in the race, and he should get a good trip as a result, and a dominating win over the track last year matters.

#15 - Frosted. Not sure he's fast enough, and he's being bet down, but got a shot.


Could win with some luck aka I'm at least a little nervous

#9 Bolo. Had a very very tough trip in his last race, can run with Dortmund, gotta use at his price.

#6 Mubtaahij. We know he can get the distance, which is more than we can say for the others. Dubai horse won his last easily.

#3 Materiality. Lack of experience is the knock. He's run faster than anyone in the race. Pace should be semi-favorable for him. Hard to toss based on anything other than gut due to "man, just not enough races and they aren't visually brilliant enough"

#16 War Story. Has had some tough wide trips, and could be closing. Huge odds.

#2 Carpe Diem. Inside post doesn't help and will need some luck. Distance shouldn't be a problem. Just don't like who he's beaten and he didn't do it fast enough for my liking.

Bombs that can run and I wouldn't be shocked

#14 Keen Ice. Win over the track and has a grinding kind of style. Hasn't been fast enough in races with some of the top contenders, but if the race falls apart he could slob in for a piece.

#17 Mr Z. Consistent sort actually had a nice little middle move at American Pharoah in the Ark Derby. Could just hang around and find a small award.

#10 Firing Line. Just don't think he can get the distance but he's a tough toss due to two photo-finish losses to Dortmund. Many will be on him at a good price.


Not with my money on them:

#1, #4, #5, #13, #20, #21

This thread needs some Dr. Thompson

Anyone doing the pick 6 on twinspires?

Let me tail your picks Clark. Let's see em.

$10 on Bolo just for a punt