Quote:
Originally Posted by daca
Consty, any other betting guys,
Any idea on how £100m got traded on betfair for this or how the swongs happened? I dont really know what's normal election betting but it seemed absolutely insane. Was it driven by institutions or something?
Pretty much. They were hedging their overall positions using this market. The market had been open ever since a referendum was called so it steadily built up to the £115m matched. Political markets move predominantly from polls and as there's so many different type of polls leading up to the vote, the market can swing a lot.
The huge volume on the night was down to remain being so short so obviously the layers take on very little risk (price was 1.06 on the YouGov poll just after voting closed at 10pm). The first two results at Newcastle and Sunderland sent shockwaves through the markets with the realisation that the months of polls were completely wrong. I was actively trading from 10pm and we were seeing quarter of a million stakes coming in at times. My software was lagging trying to keep up with the action!