Cycling 2012 Thread | Giro d'Italia - Tour de France - Vuelta a Espana

[gusmahler]

Originally Posted by another_rack

Obviously I have no idea other than a hunch, if I wasn't in the US i'd totally bet the field.

Since 2010, I've only seen Cav lose a sprint where he didn't crash 3 times (the first sprint in 2010 TdF, one sprint to Griepel in 2011 TdF (stage 10, I think), and yesterday), so betting against him isn't that good of an idea.

[another_rack]

Originally Posted by gusmahler

Since 2010, I've only seen Cav lose a sprint where he didn't crash 3 times (the first sprint in 2010 TdF, one sprint to Griepel in 2011 TdF (stage 10, I think), and yesterday), so betting against him isn't that good of an idea.

This is just wrong.

He's lost 4 sprints this year before the Giro, He lost a bunch of sprints last year including one in the Giro to Pettacchi and two in the TdF (Farrar beat him as well as Greipel). He lost 2010 Vuelta sprints to Farrar, Pettacchi, and even Hutarovich. This isn't even getting into smaller races from 2010 and 2011.

Admittedly he is the best sprinter in the peloton but there are 2 reasons I think he may be cooked for tomorrow, and perhaps til the Tour.

1. He just had his first kid, this is his first race back, having a child is an exhausting experience that takes time to recover from. Although he had the kick for the first few sprints I think we are now at a point where a Grand Tour on short rest and short training may be taking its toll. There are plenty of sprinters in the race that although Cav's lesser, are gonna be in way better shape at this point.

2. In his book he talks about having to occasionally employ a "double kick" in a sprint. He goes on to explain that this affects performance in the following days. From my recollection of the book, I have a feeling that he employed this "double kick" to beat Goss. I believe he had the extra motivation with his family in attendance to go the extra mile and it took a lot out of him. I also think he especially wants to beat Goss, since he views him as the second best sprinter in the world. If you looked at him after the stage he was way more gassed than usual after a win.

I'd still say he is the favorite but not against the field.

Anyone else surprised that Sagan actually lost today?

[gusmahler]

Originally Posted by another_rack

This is just wrong.

He's lost 4 sprints this year before the Giro, He lost a bunch of sprints last year including one in the Giro to Pettacchi and two in the TdF (Farrar beat him as well as Greipel).

Yeah, I only watched the TdF, so thanks for the correction. Though the one Farrar won, Cav was ran into the barrier on the last corner. While obviously not blameless, he didn't lose the sprint like he did in stage 10, where he tried his best, but couldn't catch Griepel.

[vedder1980]

Originally Posted by another_rack

This is just wrong.

He's lost 4 sprints this year before the Giro, He lost a bunch of sprints last year including one in the Giro to Pettacchi and two in the TdF (Farrar beat him as well as Greipel). He lost 2010 Vuelta sprints to Farrar, Pettacchi, and even Hutarovich. This isn't even getting into smaller races from 2010 and 2011.

Admittedly he is the best sprinter in the peloton but there are 2 reasons I think he may be cooked for tomorrow, and perhaps til the Tour.

1. He just had his first kid, this is his first race back, having a child is an exhausting experience that takes time to recover from. Although he had the kick for the first few sprints I think we are now at a point where a Grand Tour on short rest and short training may be taking its toll. There are plenty of sprinters in the race that although Cav's lesser, are gonna be in way better shape at this point.

2. In his book he talks about having to occasionally employ a "double kick" in a sprint. He goes on to explain that this affects performance in the following days. From my recollection of the book, I have a feeling that he employed this "double kick" to beat Goss. I believe he had the extra motivation with his family in attendance to go the extra mile and it took a lot out of him. I also think he especially wants to beat Goss, since he views him as the second best sprinter in the world. If you looked at him after the stage he was way more gassed than usual after a win.

I'd still say he is the favorite but not against the field.

Anyone else surprised that Sagan actually lost today?

For the bolded he responded to that in an interview. If you remember in that stage Sky didnt do any work until the last 10km which is obv very unusual, the reason was Mark was Ill/still suffering from some serious road rash and didnt think he could get up for the sprint.

Anyway certainly not trying to come across as some super fanboy as you may be right, the main reason i initially responded was to say what happened in the last sprint, it would have been easy to miss him having to lose all his speed in the corner and then consequently being in the wrong gear to begin sprinting, even if he is gassed that isnt what cost him the last stage + this stage is only 122km so i think it would be very brave to bet against him! I cant wait for saturday and sunday so we can get to the real racing

[gusmahler]

Yeah, betting against Cav is not usually a good idea.

[derwipok]

Cavendish is just too good.

[vedder1980]

Yeah that was ridiculous, within 400 metres of the finish he had to freewheel to avoid crashing into goss then still pulls it out by over a bike-length.

[gusmahler]

Originally Posted by vedder1980

Yeah that was ridiculous, within 400 metres of the finish he had to freewheel to avoid crashing into goss then still pulls it out by over a bike-length.

I thought he had no chance of winning the stage where Ferrari crashed into him because he was so far back. After seeing today's stage, I've changed my mind.

[another_rack]

Guess I was wrong.

That was super reminiscent of the World Championships, except on the other side of the road. In both instances Goss had Cav boxed out against the barriers then drifts to let him through.

I wonder how many sprinters drop out tomorrow. Cav says he's not, guess he'll just not make the time cut to save face?

[vedder1980]

Originally Posted by another_rack

Guess I was wrong.

That was super reminiscent of the World Championships, except on the other side of the road. In both instances Goss had Cav boxed out against the barriers then drifts to let him through.

I wonder how many sprinters drop out tomorrow. Cav says he's not, guess he'll just not make the time cut to save face?

You know i actually think he might finish the race, if you asked me a week ago i never would have thought that. I think he might be trying to so something crazy like win all the points jerseys from the grand tours in a single season? I mean if he wanted to drop out why contest the intermediate sprints just to wear red for 1/2 days, seems weird.

Hes looked way more comfortable on climbs than he did at romandie, when he was dropping a minute on a humpback bridge. I still think its more likely he drops out but i wouldnt be shocked now to see him finish and win the red jersey.

[derwipok]

Originally Posted by vedder1980

You know i actually think he might finish the race, if you asked me a week ago i never would have thought that. I think he might be trying to so something crazy like win all the points jerseys from the grand tours in a single season?

+ gold at the Olympics

[vedder1980]

Mainly im so excited for the first real massive mountain stage of the grand tour season Vamoooooooooooooo rigo and vamooooooooo Sergio henao!

[daddyrnac]

Originally Posted by gusmahler

I thought he had no chance of winning the stage where Ferrari crashed into him because he was so far back. After seeing today's stage, I've changed my mind.

I certainly thought he had a really good chance of winning that stage from looking at the replays. His speed was just so much greater than those around him. It certainly would have been close if it wasn't for Ferrari.

[vedder1980]

Originally Posted by daddyrnac

I certainly thought he had a really good chance of winning that stage from looking at the replays. His speed was just so much greater than those around him. It certainly would have been close if it wasn't for Ferrari.

This is where i actually, against most peoples perception, feel almost sorry for Ferrari. He was sprinting and moving out from the people sprinting in front of him, honestly how many people could come from behind at such speed as to make that manoeuvre dangerous, not many imo. It looks really bad but so few people could blow by him at that speed so its not that shocking he didnt look back.

[gusmahler]

Originally Posted by vedder1980

You know i actually think he might finish the race, if you asked me a week ago i never would have thought that. I think he might be trying to so something crazy like win all the points jerseys from the grand tours in a single season? I mean if he wanted to drop out why contest the intermediate sprints just to wear red for 1/2 days, seems weird.

Because the Giro awards the same number of points for all stages, it's harder for a sprinter to win the points jersey (the last three years, a mountain specialist won the points jersey). Then again, since he's already won a points jersey in the Vuelta and the TdF, he matches Petachi's accomplishment of winning the points for each of the grant tours.