So what you're saying is captains should be overly defensive in order to save their jobs?

I equate that to taking a lower EV line in order to reduce variance, which is silly if you're adequately rolled. (Jesus, I don't know where I'm going with this. )

Dhoni is quite aggressive with his declarations AFAIK.

Most recent example: http://www.espncricinfo.com/west-ind...ch/489227.html

Left WI with a target of 280 in 85 overs, 1/0 up in the series..

I just think teams are too risk averse when it comes to declarations, because they just dont want to ever lose a match that they declared.

I agree with Brickie in that the best declarations are ones where you have like a 2% chance of losing, because I think the added time adds significantly more to your chances of winning. So if by adding a 2% risk to your game you're 10-15% more likely to win it's worth it.

Try to compare how many times you have seen the opposition 7-8 down at the close of play on the 5th to them being 350/3 scoring at close to 4 an over needing 100 more to win. An extra hour or so added is gonna help the bowling side a ton more than it helps the batting side, and when India are already handicapped in thier batting no need to be afraid of monsters in the closet.


Btw I'm not saying England can't win it from here 2-3 quick wickets and we could be toast, I'd say they're 40% to win it from here.

the dhoni declaration would seem to be quite aggresive but when you look a little deeper you see that

a) west indies were required to score the biggest total of the match batting last on a deteriorating wicket
b) the run rate per over for the match prior to the fourth innings was 2.71. i.e batting was tough and quick scoring was tough( wi req runs @ 3.3 rpo)
c) west indies have **** batting

dhoni has taken quite a bit of stick for being overly defensive he probably saw this as a good opportunity for some good press.

i don't think dhoni is more defensive than anyone else in world test cricket particularly either and i agree as a general rule teams are conservative in the their play in test cricket. that just the way it is.

also i think there is going to be a very contentious decision tomorrow(don't know which way) that will turn the match


anyone think theres a chance harbhajan is dropped from the next test? seems unlikely given fletchers love of bowlers who can bat but there seems to be a lot of hate going around for harbhajan from indians.

Harbajan is still miles ahead of the 2nd best spinner in India. I can't see them playing 4 seamers with Zaheer's health and the likes of Sreesanth and Munaf in the wings.

What the hell happened to Piyush Chawla?

About declarations in general, fact is not losing is far more valued in our culture then winning at the moment, and as such declarations will always be on the more defensive side, similar to how equity calcs would suggest going for it more often on 4th down in the NFL then coaches do, mainly because to the general public you look far more stupid the % of times it doesnt work then the plaudits you get when it does work.

Also, by making a "stupid" declaration is far more likely to cost a job then any benefits of making the same declaration that works.

The only time declarations ever seem to get made early is when drawing the test is always just as bad as losing (Graeme Smith declared leaving us 200ish to get in 55 overs or so when down 1-0 in the last test of a series needing a draw in 06. Thats an easy declaration spot compared to others but this early in a series the thought process of "keep it tight" and "dont lose the first test" seem to be the focus compared to maximising EV.)

ship ship mcGipp

The Burnley Express has just driven through the wall at full speed. (the love nicknames that are more imaginitive than Straussy, Trotty, Belly...)

bleh we're bowling well without luck

anderson bowling pies, tremlett and broad bowling well yet jimi has both wickets today

kaching

Wow, those sorts of decisions are almost never given. The umpiring has been seriously good in this test, can only think of 1 mistake in the whole test (some slightly dodgy no ball calls on Tremlett aside).

AFAIK the selectors have high hopes for Mishra, and Chawla has slowly fell out of the picture for international selection. Unfortunately Mishra is too inconsistent and inaccurate right now. Ohja is probably the 2nd best test choice, but he's a containing bowler (2nd option), not a match winner. R Ashwin is an interesting case. He is tall with a high arm action, reminds me of Lance Gibbs/

Despite the haters, Raina is a pretty gritty cricketer.

Billy Bowden is an awful umpire.

ANd I read recently that Aleem Dar was something like 82-0 on DRS referrals during the world cup. insane

id like to see broad banned for a test series soon, he needs taught a lesson.

To be fair he's been pretty good this match and he had a very legitimate reason to be upset this time. Even when he was getting upset he was still nowhere near as bad as he has been at times in the past, he might not even get fined this time

Also lol at me saying how good the umpires have been and then Bowden making a few horrible decisions.

Bowden has been terrible for about 4 years. I don't know who he's sleeping with to remain on the elite panel

Does Raina have haters? Is he keeping a better batsman out of the side because of his superior fielding? I always thought he was a pretty decent cricketer, myself. Come to think of it, where are Yuvraj and Kohli? Forgive me for not following my Indian team news.

Idiosyncracies tho.

Wtf? Your kidding ? Your not qualified to comment if that's your opinion.

lol

He gets a lot of hate from Indian supporters. There are a bunch of young batsmen that some people believe should be ahead of raina. Pujara (injured), and Badrinath at least. Some thing Kohli is a future star too. Kohli badly failed in the WI and I don't rate him too highly as a test batsmen. Yuvraj well, he's had plenty of chances to fail in tests and he's obliged.

Strauss' captaincy is even more boring than his batting, which is just plain ridiculous imo.

Not a fan of Billy Bowden, umpires shouldnt be noticed and should never be considered a minor celebrity like he is over here. They'll never get rid of him though cause everyone thinks he's awsesome.

Yuvraj theoretically should dominate but just cant hack test cricket from what I've seen. India need to find some young players real quick though, cause other than Gambhir they have a very aged batting line up. Gotta do something soon or they'll end up like us after Hayden, Gilchrist, Langer, Martyn retired all at once, and its not pretty now having someone like Michel Clarke as your captain and best player :